Mizzou won’t play its next game until a week from Saturday, when No. 3 Texas A&M cruises into CoMo for a 2:30 p.m. kickoff on Nov. 8.
Given this break in the action, I think it’s a good time to take a spin on the coaching carousel. The insanity continues. It’s a couple of days before Halloween but 12 FBS programs have already sacked their coaches. And more firings are coming.
Just for a point of reference, here’s how The Athletic ranks the openings, based on the chances for the next coach to succeed there. “Coaches want to take jobs where they believe they can win, and this is how most coaches would view these jobs,” Chris Vannini wrote.
The top five available jobs, according to The Athletic: LSU, Penn State, Florida, Arkansas, and UCLA.
Here are the other seven, in order: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Oregon State, Colorado State, UAB, and Kent State.
Around these parts, there’s considerable interest in the status and future of Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz. He deserves a lot of credit for reviving the MU program, in large part because of his aggressiveness in raising money, recruiting, putting the Tigers in a strong early position on the NIL market, and being one of the best coaches in the game at maneuvering in the transfer portal.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Missouri’s 27-7 record and .794 winning percentage ranks 9th among the Power 4 conferences (and Notre Dame.)
Drinkwitz is light on wins against ranked opponents, and has only one victory in nine tries against Top 10 teams. It’s been somewhat better over the last three seasons, with Mizzou going 5-7 against ranked teams and 1-3 when playing a Top 10 squad.
Will the thinner section of this Drinkwitz resume reduce his chances of getting an offer from LSU, Penn State or Florida? Maybe. Others would say “probably” or “definitely.”
Well, if the past means anything it would be a mistake to rule out Drinkwitz for one of the top three jobs just because of his record vs. ranked (and top 10) teams. I did some research on this today, and I’ll explain what I’m referring to later.
As of noon Wednesday, Drinkwitz was the betting favorite for the Florida job at minus 105 odds. (Source: BetOnline.ag) His name remains in play – at least in the markets – at LSU and Penn State. One market has Drinkwitz as an 8-1 shot at LSU.
Bruce Feldman – the well connected national college football columnist at The Athletic – puts Drinkwitz at No. 2 on the prospective LSU list behind Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin.
Another writer for The Athletic, Joe Rexrode, has Drinkwitz as the No. 1 match for Florida if Kiffin goes to LSU or chooses to stay at Ole Miss.
Here’s Feldman on Drinkwitz and LSU:
“Drinkwitz is one of several coaches on this list who’s become a bigger and bigger commodity, being 56-27 (.675) in seven total seasons as a head coach and 27-7 (.794) the past two and a half seasons at Mizzou. He may not be at the very top of all of these lists for the programs involved, but, especially in this era of the sport, he’s done enough lately in CoMo to warrant interest.”
Here’s Rexrode on Drinkwitz and Florida:
“Nothing has worked at Florida since Urban Meyer’s reign, and it’s tried every model: the successful G5 coach (Napier, Jim McElwain), the established P4 coach (Mullen), the hot assistant (Will Muschamp). After Napier, it’s time to look a level higher and pluck a guy who has done tremendous things at Missouri. If you’re Drinkwitz, you’re looking at a place that finally seems to have figured out what a coach needs to return to winning national championships.”
Kiffin’s eventual decision impacts Missouri. If Kiffin doesn’t climb to another job, that puts Drinkwitz higher on the lists at Florida and LSU. At least in theory.
If Kiffin goes to LSU, then Drinkwitz (presumably) would become more prominent in Florida’s search. And if Kiffin takes the Florida job, then Drinkwitz probably becomes more of a factor at LSU.
I’m not sure how to gauge Penn State’s interest in Drinkwitz – though his success in the transfer portal would have appeal for Penn State. Why? Because their recently terminated coach, James Franklin, wasn’t very good at utilizing the portal. Drinkwitz is the opposite of that; coming into 2025 Missouri was rated No. 7 in the nation in the transfer-portal rankings.
By all indications, the Florida job is there for Kiffin if he wants it, but LSU has the most to offer an aspiring coach. That’s true for many reasons including this: three of the last four LSU coaches have won a national championship: Nick Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron. Brian Kelly – famously – struck out.
Since I’m offering some “What They’re Saying Out There” examples, here’s Greg McElroy’s take on Drinkwitz. This just shows you the changing perception -- nationally -- of Drink's work. That said, the perception will take a terrible turn if MIZ falls apart down the stretch.
McElroy, the former national-championship quarterback at Alabama, is an analyst for ABC-ESPN and contributes to On3.com.
“He has kind of remade Missouri into a consistently relevant program,” McElroy said. “He’s been a top-tier candidate for years. If he were to make a move, would he be in the mix at a place like Florida? Would he be in the mix at a place like LSU? I don’t know. I don’t know the answer to that.
“All I know is that his system, offensively, is very, very fun to watch. It works. They do a really good job of evaluating talent. I also think he’s done a really good job of navigating the NIL world. He has made Missouri into a big spender.
“And I think he’s done a really good job of engaging with players and being a players coach that has high expectations while also being able to maintain and deal with some of the circumstances that come with being a head coach nowadays.”
In an effort to keep Drinkwitz in Columbia, the Mizzou administration will line up as much money as it takes to sweeten the Drink contract and redo his recent extension. If it reaches that point, then it's up to the coach to decide on his future. He's got it made at Mizzou. And I have to wonder if Drinkwitz wants to go anywhere near that zoo and circus at Batton Rouge.
I'll get into that in a different column.
OK, what about the Drinkwitz resume and his unimpressive record against ranked teams, including Top 10 teams?
I've seen more than a few national CFB writers cite Drink's lack of success against ranked teams, and better teams.
Locally, the small cult of Drinkwitz haters is going into convulsions over this, and it's really funny. These folks have a point, about the one flaw in the Drinkwitz record -- though it's hardly a scoop. We all know about the hole in the coach's otherwise impressive resume.
But what does history tell us about this?
Should elite programs stay away from hiring a coach at a less prominent program if that coach has flopped in games against ranked opponents -- including Top 10 teams? It's an interesting question.
I wanted to do some research on it -- looking for some examples of how it's worked out just great when elite programs choose a new coach that had problems beating better teams in his previous places of employment.
If any of these teams with attractive openings want to scratch Drinkwitz because of that …
Well, it’s pretty damn funny. They should look into their own program's past.
So let's dig in -- and you'll have to forgive my sarcasm.
Nick Saban: Why in the world did LSU hire him away from Michigan State? Didn’t the people running the show at LSU take note of Saban’s 9-13 record against ranked teams? Saban was .500 at Michigan State when playing Top 10 teams … Hey, not bad! … but .500 ain’t gonna cut it at LSU. Oh. Maybe it was OK to hire Saban. LSU won a national championship under Saban to cap the 2003 season despite overlooking his .409 winning percentage against ranked competition in his first power conference head-coach stint.
Les Miles: What the hell was LSU doing, hiring Miles when he had such a terrible record (3-12) against ranked opponents as the coach at Oklahoma State from 2001 through 2004? Miles can’t win the big games! What are you trying to tell me? Oh. I forgot. Miles won the national title at LSU to end a triumphant 2007 campaign.
Ed Orgeron: The big man was 0-12 against ranked teams – including 0-8 vs. top 10 opponents – as the head coach at Ole Miss from 2005-2007. Big mistake, LSU? How stupid are you people? Wait. Orgeron led LSU to a perfect 2019 season and the national title.
Saban, Miles and Orgeron had a combined 12-37 record against ranked teams in their previous jobs before getting hired by LSU.
I think it turned out OK for LSU.
Jimmy Johnson: Miami of Florida made one of the dumbest hirings ever in recruiting the Oklahoma State coach to take over their program in 1984. I say this because all of the smart people know you can’t hire a coach that went 2-12 against ranked teams, and 0-6 vs. Top 10 teams, while coaching at Oklahoma State. Stupid move! Umm, Jimmy went on to lead the 1987 Miami Hurricanes to the national championship. And when Johnson was hired as coach of the NFL Dallas Cowboys, he left a stacked roster behind for new Miami coach Dennis Erickson, who won two more national titles with a lot of Johnson’s recruits.
Steve Spurrier: Before returning to coach his alma mater (Florida), the ol’ ballcoach spent a couple of seasons as head coach at Duke and lost four of six games against ranked teams. So it must have been a college-football miracle when Spurrier took over the Gators and had an .817 winning percentage (and a national title) in his 12 seasons in Gainesville.
Bear Bryant: he went 9-11-2 against ranked teams as Kentucky coach and somehow managed to overcome that losing record to go on and have great success at Texas A&M and Alabama. Bryant won six national championships at Alabama (by their count.) But I thought coaches who have a losing record against ranked teams at lesser programs are disqualified from moving up to a more prestigious program. Right? (Hilarious.)
Hayden Fry: Before he became the legendary Iowa coach, Fry as the SMU coach had a horrendous 4-23-1 record vs. ranked teams and was 3-18 against the top tens. What a terrible decision by Iowa. Sure, Fry won big at Iowa … but he never should have been given that job. That’s what the smart people would have said.
Mack Brown: What an idiotic hire by Texas considering that Mack had a combined 11-29 record against ranked teams in his previous head-coaching jobs at Tulane and North Carolina. That included Brown going 0-12-1 at North Carolina in his first 13 games against top 25 teams. Sure, Brown won a national title at Texas and posted a .767 winning percentage in his 16 seasons in Austin … but the smart people who were being smart people back then know it was a big mistake to hire Brown after he flopped against ranked teams in his first two head-coaching stops.
Ara Parseghian: Truth is, the legendary coach at Notre Dame should have never been allowed to enter South Bend after having an awful 7-19-1 record against ranked teams as the head coach at Northwestern. Notre Dame … what are you doing? Well, as it has been said many times, God works in mysterious ways. At Notre Dame, Parseghian had an .836 winning percentage in 11 seasons and guided the Fighting Irish to the top spot in the AP poll on eight different occasions during his time there. He was a great coach who proved it after having a much better platform at Notre Dame.
Dan Devine: Notre Dame did it again, hiring Devine after he went 13-17 vs. ranked teams at Mizzou from 1958 through 1970. And over that time, Devine lost 14 of 17 games against top 10 opponents. Based on what the smart people are saying about Drinkwitz now, Devine’s record against better teams should have eliminated him from consideration at Notre Dame. But during Devine’s six seasons as head coach, the Fighting Irish had a .764 winning percentage and were voted No. 1 in the nation at the end of the 1977 season.
I have many other examples, but I’ll stop now. Drinkwitz is still young and relatively early into his career as a power-conference coach. Florida or LSU or Penn State could make a mistake in hiring Drinkwitz, but it won’t be because of his poor record against ranked teams as Mizzou coach. I personally would have other, more important, concerns.
History tells us – loudly – this is why so many very good coaches have moved up to take the bigger jobs at more prestigious programs that have so many extra, built-in advantages. They believe they’ll have a much better chance to defeat elite opponents and make a run at a national title. Sometimes they are right. Many other times, their thinking is wrong.
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Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STLSportsCentral featuring Bernie and Randy Karraker.