Game Information
Saint Louis Billikens (28-4) vs Dayton Flyers (22-10) - Atlantic 10 semifinals
Time: 12pm CT Saturday
How to watch: CBS Sports Network
DraftKings Odds
Spread: SLU -6.5
Total: 148.5
KenPom Projection
SLU 78, Dayton 72
Longtime rivals square off for a spot in the Atlantic 10 Tournament final when the Saint Louis University Billikens and Dayton Flyers do battle for the third time this season on Saturday afternoon.
The Billikens advanced to this matchup by completing the largest comeback in school history in an 88-81 win over George Washington after being down 21 points in the first half. Meanwhile, Dayton held off St. Bonaventure 68-63 in Friday’s second quarterfinal to set up Saturday’s rubber match.
SLU absolutely destroyed Dayton 102-71 on January 30th at Chaifetz Arena, while the Flyers responded with a resounding 77-62 home win over the Billikens on February 24th.
This is a tough one to call from a side perspective, but I am heavily leaning towards the under.
Both teams had intense games on Friday that should lead to some tired legs. I also saw the Bills flip the switch at halftime against GW, as their defensive intensity really ramped up in the second half. I expect more of an effort like that for a full 40 minutes.
But I see Dayton being quite effective defensively as well. The Flyers have been locking down opponents lately. They have now gone eight games in a row allowing fewer than 70 points, including the win over SLU during that stretch. Dayton plays with extreme physicality, so that’s going to be tough on the Billikens playing on back-to-back days.
I think this is going to be a really tightly contested game, but I expect the Billikens to pull through and win it with their depth being the deciding factor - so the spread feels about right to me. With a lot on the line and two teams that don’t like each other competing like crazy, I think that lends itself to an under.
Lean: Under 148.5 at -110 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every week on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer