For a spluttering Cardinals offense, dormancy has become normalcy. I guess that’s a fancy way of saying the boys ain’t hitting.
Proceeding into Tuesday’s game against the Cubs, El Birdos have the worst record (9-15) among the 30 MLB teams this month.
It’s been a hot and steamy July here in St. Louis, but the Cardinals’ bats are colder than a Budweiser packed in ice. The unit is the epitome of the term “low energy.”
As my pal the Old-Timey Sportswriter observed recently, “the Cardinals’ are stalling like a lawnmower begging for retirement.”
In their 24 games during the Month of the Sun, the Cardinals have a .218 average and .627 OPS. They erupted for 11 runs against the Braves on July 2, and cannonaded the Cubs for 17 runs on July 3rd. All that running around the bases for two busy, bust-out days may have tuckered the boys out.
Since July 4 – no fireworks! – the Cards have averaged 3.5 runs per game and slugged their way to a rate (.312) that would embarrass a slap-hitting featherweight. Their polite total of 15 home runs over the last 21 games has been a display of wonderful kindness shown to opposing-team pitchers.
Here’s the problem, in two parts:
1. The most talented hitters who should be muscling up and doing extensive damage aren’t landing enough heavy punches.
2. The lesser hitters who aren’t expected to carry the offense have apparently declined to participate in the offense. To call them “contributors” would be a flattering term and a preposterous exaggeration.
Let’s talk about the top five hitters in the lineup.
The front five spots are regularly occupied by JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Lars Nootbaar. (Not necessarily in that order.)
Here’s the collective July production pumped from the first five spots: .244 average, .311 OBP, .375 slug and a .686 OPS. Per adjusted runs created (wRC+) the group is seven percent below league average offensively. The top five spots have bopped only 13 homers in 464 at-bats. Sorry but that isn’t enough.
Compared to the 1-2-3-4-5 spots for the other 29 teams, the Cardinals’ 1-2-3-4-5 slots and the names that fill them rank 22nd in wRC+, 22nd in OBP, 25th in OPS, and 27th in slugging. Their 13 home runs have been topped by 11 of the National League’s first-five packs.
As I typed a few moments ago: sorry, but that isn’t enough. But what are the Cardinals supposed to do? Bat Masyn Winn at cleanup? Move Nathan Church into the No. 3 chute? Designate each player for assignment?
Walker and Burleson are safely above average offensively in July* (I’ll explain the asterisk in a minute. There are problems elsewhere. Using the July wRC+ rates, Wetherholt is 12 percent below average offensively, Herrera is 40% below average, and Noot is 44% less than average-hitter level.
Here’s why I included an asterisk:
> Jordan Walker: In 48 plate appearances since returning on cloud nine from the All-Star game and his epic performance in the annual HR Derby, J-Walk has a .202 average, .292 OBP, and a .302 slug. He hasn’t lofted a single homer. He’s driven in just three RBIs. Per wRC+, Waller is 30% below league average offensively since he resumed swinging on July 17. I assume this is just a phase. If so, I would also enjoy seeing this particular phase expire.
> JJ Wetherholt: In 78 plate appearances since July 6, the rookie lineup driver is hitting .174 with a .544 OPS. His on-base rate over this time is a slight .269, so JJ isn’t setting up as many RBI opps for his mates. When Wetherholt gets on base two-plus times in a game this season the Cardinals are 32-22. When JJ gets on base at least once in a game, the team’s record is eight games over .500. When he fails to reach base, the Cards are 5-17. Leadoff hitters have significant impact.
> Alec Burleson: he has a fine set of July numbers that include a .312 average and .440 slug. But because the hitters in front of him are struggling to get on base, Burly has only five RBIs in his last 15 games despite batting .339.
> Ivan Herrera: He’s heating up, which is a positive sign. But since June 23, Herrera has a .189 batting average with a meager .509 OPS. He’s walked only 4% of the time. His hard-hit rate over this time is an alarming 28.6%. His wRC+ for this period translates to 56% below league average. Be Hercules again, man.
> Lars Nootbaar: In his last 82 plate appearances Noot has cooled down so much that his bat is turning into a popsicle stick. Since June 28 he’s hitting .181 with one homer, a .544 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 42% under the league average offensively. The June-Noot was a lot more disruptive and entertaining at the plate than the July-Noot. What does this mean for his trade value? I suppose we will know soon enough.
Let’s close with a brief breakdown of the 6-7-8-9 lineup spots in July.
The gentlemen who have made the most plate appearances in the 6-7-8-9 caboose section of the lineup are Masyn Winn, Jose Fermin, Nathan Church, Blaze Jordan, and Bryan Torres. Jimmy Crooks has gotten in some swings and he’s made them count. But Crooksie doesn’t play enough to make his at-bats matter in a big way. That’s not his fault.
Anyway, here’s what the Cardinals’ Caboose has done, collectively, in July compared to the other 29 back-end lineups in MLB.
– .183 average, 30th
– .252 OBP, 27th
– .290 slug, 30th
– .542 OPS, 30th
– 53 wRC+ 28th and 47% below league average offensively.
I have nothing to add to that other than to ask a question: and we wonder why this STL offense is shooting so many blanks in July? The top five are kind of drizzling instead of storming. And if the Cardinals hoped for the bottom four to make some noise, all they’re getting are some whispers.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.