The Cardinals are hopping into Monday to open a series against their rivals, the team from up north that has the ancient curiosity of a ballpark that has attracted generations of tourists.
I will actually say it’s good to see the Cubs, even though they're still the most loathed irritant among the Cardinal faithful. The Cubs occupy the top shelf of Redbird resentment. It’s all in good fun of course – which is why the rivalry is more genuine than the performance-art rivalries where the 90 percent of the two fan bases are acting out the assigned role.
It is good to see the Cubs around here for a full four-game card for several reasons:
1. I dunno? Maybe some fans will show up for these games? Wouldn’t it be nice? I would hate to see the Cardinals slip from No. 19 to No. 20 in the average MLB home attendance rankings. Oh, sorry, it’s really hot outside. And we all know that St. Louis never gets hot in the summertime. And baseball has never been played here in steaming, oxygen-sucking, and conditions that make Death Valley seem like a resort with pools, waterfalls and daiquiris. I’m thinking that an air-conditioned domed stadium would provide a more comfortable way of watching Cardinals baseball. BDIII, get on it.
2. The Cubs seem to bring out the best in a Cardinals team that may be starting to realize that all of those preseason haters who picked them to lose 137 games (or whatever) in 2026 may have had a point.
3. The Cardinals have won only 7 of their last 19 series. They have a losing record (49-50) since April 2. They have the NL’s 10th-best record since May 1. They’ve won only 13 of their last 34 games and six of their last 19 competitions. The local nine has also staggered and wandered and wheezed to 13 losses in their last 19 home games at Busch Stadium.
4. The Cardinals offense has crushed four home runs in 336 at-bats since the All-Star break. No worries. The Birds will be catching up to the leading home-run hitting teams since the break – the Padres (19 homers), Braves (18), Reds (18) and Nationals (18) any day now. But just seeing Pete Crow-Armstrong pimping home runs and doing a Jimmy Edmonds tribute in center field should be enough to inspire the youngest team in major-league baseball.
5. Question: why is the youngest team in major-league baseball playing like a really old, tired, slo-mo team in major-league baseball? PCA, you have to rile up the Redbirds up. Get ‘em going. That’s why I’m glad PCA, the NL’s best full-time position player, is in The Lou. Get some damn excitement up in here, and maybe the Cardinals will pick up on the hint.
6. Another reason to be appreciative of the Cubs setting up in our village for the next four ballgames? Since May 29 the Cardinals are 4-2 against the Cubs and 20-25 against the other teams on their schedule.
7. Perhaps the Cardinals will remember something that can trigger muscle memory: in six games vs. the rivals from Wrigleyville, the Redbirds have outscored the Cubs 36-19, out-homered the Cubs 8-3, and out-slugged the Cubs .431 to .340. I mean, why not do the McGwire vs. Sosa thing for a couple of days?
8. I don’t understand something: the Cubs have placed 16 different pitchers on the IL this season. And those 16 pitchers have collectively missed 859 days (and counting) this season. The IL traffic included six starters: Justin Steele, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera. The bullpen has been torn apart so frequently over the team’s first 105 games, Cubs manager Craig Counsell has already handed the baseball to 28 different relievers to pitch in a regular-season contest. Despite all of that – plus injuries to position players Seiya Suzuki and Matt Shaw – the Cubs are 59 and 46 this season. And the Cardinals get a few injuries and all of a sudden it’s a crisis that has no solution.
9. Counsell has used 28 relievers … and yet … Oli Marmol keeps running out of relievers? Like, why does every Cardinals game (an exaggeration!) seem to end with Marmol signaling to the bullpen to bring in Matt Svanson?
10. What do CJ Abrams, Ty France, Jeremy Pena, Jackson Merrill and Drake Baldwin have in common? Answer: all of them have out-homered the entire Cardinals team, 5-4, since the All-Star break.
11. The Cardinals are in a fierce duel with Salvador Perez, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Wilyer Abreu, Esmerlyn Valdez, and Hunter Goodman. The Cards have 4 home runs as a team since the All-Star break, and the guys I just cited each have 4 home runs as individuals.
12. Finally … you didn’t ask for it. But you’re getting it anyway: an update on the frantic (sigh) six-team race for the No. 3 NL wild-card playoff spot.
— As play begins Monday the Diamondbacks lead the Pirates and Marlins by one game, the Cardinals by 1 and ½ games, the Padres by two games, and the Marlins by 3.
— Playoff probabilities for each of the six teams from FanGraphs: Pirates 41.7%, Diamondbacks 36.9%, Cardinals 17.6%, Padres 14.7%, Nationals 10.2% and Marlins 7.3%.
Remaining Strength of Schedule
– The Pirates have the easiest path, with a remaining opponent win% of .488 The Bucs can get to work right away by opening an important head-to-head home series vs. Arizona at PNC Park. I don’t see this as being easy. Their schedule is full of fun matchups that include the Brewers, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals, White Sox, Marlins and Padres.
– The Nationals have a moderate schedule with a remaining opponent win% of .498. Washington’s high-scoring offense has a non-divisional homestand starting tonight against Toronto – but will face a heavy late-season NL East slate with matchups against Atlanta and Philadelphia.
– The Cardinals have a moderately tough schedule with a remaining opponent win% of .508. The Redbirds will encounter a demanding August/September stretch. Two series and seven games against the Cubs, two series vs. Philadelphia, two series with Pittsburgh, a road series at the NY Yankees, a road series against the Dodgers, a home series vs. the Chicago White Sox, a home series against the Nationals, and a season-ending road series at Milwaukee. There’s a lengthy road series at Cincinnati mixed in there. It’s a challenging slate.
– Arizona has a tough schedule, with a remaining opponent win% of .512. It includes heavy intra-division games against the Dodgers and Padres. But there will also be conflicts with the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Phillies, Yankees. Marlins and Rangers.
— San Diego has a tough stretch ahead, with a remaining opponent win% of .515. The Padres will be running the NL West gauntlet with multiple series against LA, Arizona, and San Francisco. The schedule is also packed with games against the Brewers, Guardians, Rays, Yankees, Nats, Pirates, and Marlins.
— Miami has the most difficult schedule with a remaining opponent win% of .522. The Marlins enter play Monday with a 12-game losing streak. Their schedule is a killer, with two series vs. the Phillies, the Cubs and the Braves – and other engagements with the Dodgers, Red Sox, Nationals, Dbacks and Padres.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie