What kind of rookie season is JJ Wetherholt having? Very good. Very nice. Doing everything the JJ way, down to the signature on his rewarding contract extension.
There you see him, taking smart and highly professional at-bats. Lining pitches into the gaps. Driving them over the walls and fences … into the crowds or up in the clouds … for 15 home runs.
Fielding his plot of land near second base with exquisite defense that puts him atop various leaderboards.
Running the bases like a fast white-tailed deer in the open spaces of West Virginia – the place where JJ once roamed.
Say hello to Five-Tool Wetherholt: hit for average, hit for power, run, field, and throw.
Wetherholt is the heavy favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. His all-around value has generated 3.8 Wins Above Replacement, the FanGraphs version known as fWAR. No other NL rookie has more than 1.9 fWAR.
From 1961 through now, the only St. Louis rookie to render more fWAR value than Wetherholt was Albert Pujols (7.2) in 2001.
That’s right. JJ has played in 96 games in his first big-league campaign, and he’s already surpassed every Cards rookie but one, Pujols, in fWAR. And Wetherholt still has two months of regular-season ball to go. Yeah, that’s the JJ way.
Not that I went searching for negatives. But there’s something about Wetherholt’s offensive profile that intrigues me. I study the numbers to uncover the trends and stories within them.
And I’m here to share this. Early on in his major-league career, there’s only one thing out there making Wetherholt work extremely hard to win a competition. Something out there that’s challenging JJ in a way that he hasn’t been tested before. Something out there that’s snatching up his stats and shredding them.
It’s his home ballpark.
Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO.
By the way, just so we understand each other … I’m not criticizing Wetherholt at all. Busch Stadium can be a notoriously difficult environment for hitters, and Busch Stadium is giving JJ a rookie-class education. Which will, in time, make Wetherholt an even better major-league hitter. If you can win the battle against Busch, then you’ll conquer ballparks anywhere.
Check out these numbers, which I looked up before Thursday’s Diamondbacks at St. Louis game. The digits are not included in this presentation.
Batting Average: .237 at Busch, .277 on the road. A difference of 40 points.
On-base percentage: .304 at Busch, .395 on the road. A difference of 91 points.
Slugging percentage: .344 at Busch, .461 on the road. A difference of 117 points.
On-base + slugging: .648 at Busch, .855 on the road. A difference of 207 points.
Weighted runs created plus: 83 at Busch, 140 on the road. Translation? JJ is 17 percent below league average offensively at home, and a whopping 40 percent above league average offensively when he hits on the road.
Will this even out over time? Well, yes. JJ Wetherholt is too talented, and eminently capable, of looking at a problem and solving it.
I’m looking forward to watching this thinking man’s hitter respond to the challenge. And Busch Stadium will eventually lose, once Wetherholt completes his baseball environmental study and makes the adaptations.
Is there a specific issue that’s pushing down JJ’s numbers at Busch Stadium. It seems to be about his swing path, and the search for better contact.
Take a look …
Batting avg. on contact at Busch: .271
Batting avg on contact on road: .342
Why: the contact isn’t as solid, and he may be trying to do too much. Busch Stadium is pretty damn good at frustrating hitters. And probably making them just a little bit crazy at times.
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Slugging on contact at Busch: .398
Slugging on contact on road: .545
Why: he’s missing the barrel. Just a little bit off. I’m telling you, when JJ makes the necessary swing modifications, he’s back in business.
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Ideal contact rate at Busch: 31.4%
Ideal contact rate on the road: 41.8%
Why: Not enough barrels or solid contact. More flares. More floating fly balls.
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Average attack angle at Busch: 14.2 degrees.
Average attack angle on the road: 8.5 degrees.
Why: This reaffirms what we think we know. Wetherholt is swinging with a steeper – more upper-cut – path at Busch.
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Sweet spot percentage at Busch: 28.5%
Sweet spot percentage on road: 37.2%
Why: finding that launch-angle sweet spot with the swing is every hitter’s goal. But at home, he’s either topping the ball or getting under it – more frequently than he does on the road.
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If Wetherholt flattens out that attack angle at Busch Stadium – by bringing that road swing at home – these splits will begin to shift and level. And at that point the JJ way shall prevail in the war against Busch Stadium.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.