If I may be hopelessly esoteric here for a moment and borrow the title from an album by the English Beat, the British ska band and leaders of the 2-tone movement that had your boy dancing in the early 1980s …
Wha’ppen?
Yeah. That’s right.
What the hell happened?
Exactly six weeks ago, the Cardinals won a 3-2 stress-test game over the Padres at Busch Stadium. The victory boosted the home team’s record to a dashing 40-31 on the season.
The Cards’ .563 winning percentage at that moment ranked No. 4 in the National League and was sixth overall. Only the Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Yankees and Rays were sitting higher than the Redbirds in the 30-team standings.
At 71 games into their schedule, the Cardinals were one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 season. Late in the preseason, FanGraphs gave the Cardinals an 8.5 percent probability of making the playoffs.
Among the other NL teams, only the Nationals and Rockies had worse playoff odds than the Redbirds. But in improving to 41-30 on June 16, the feisty Cardinals had their postseason probability surge to 55.6 percent. It’s difficult to fathom right now, but on that day only four NL clubs had greater playoff odds than the Cards: Dodgers, Braves, Brewers and Phillies.
Could it last?
Would it last?
No. And no.
Not that STL’s season is lost, with all hope expired. The Cardinals are a mundane 53-52 as the new week begins, and their playoff chances have drifted downward. Per FanGraphs, their postseason probability has decreased to 17.7 percent … a drop of just under 38% over the six-week downturn.
The Birds are a longshot – but not impossibly so. With 57 games to work with, the Cards are just 1 and ½ games away from the NL’s No. 3 wild card ticket to ride. When viewed in that context, the mission seems reasonable.
Of course, the theory is less practical when we run it through the trendlines.
Since June 17, the Cardinals’ record is a gaunt 13-21. Their .382 winning percentage over that time is a sunken 14th in the NL and 27th overall. Another ominous sign of distress is their inability to stock up on series wins.
The Cardinals opened the season with nine series victories, two splits, and four series lost. That added up to a dandy 27-18 record. A strong breeze for smooth sailing. Well, the momentum slowed. The Cardinals lost headway.
And then they lost more and more series. The Redbirds have succeeded in taking seven of their last 19 matchups, and the recent ledger shows one series up, and four series down. Losing four of five series in recent times does not point to a revival. It points to a struggle for survival.
Now that losing has turned into a habit, the Cardinals are ninth in the NL – and tied for 13th overall – with a .505 win percentage.
To repeat: what happened?
Other than their record, what changed over the past six weeks of baseball?
In no particular sequence, let’s go through the answers:
1. The one-run flip. The Cardinals were 10-3 in their first 13 games settled by a one-run difference. Since then, they’ve dropped 13 of their last 18 one-run outcomes. This was predictable, and it’s a substantial swing that killed the team’s early season mojo.
2. The offense flatlined. During the rush to a 40-31 start, the Cardinals scored 4.6 runs per game and held their own in homers, slugging, batting average, on-base percentage and OPS as a mid-tier offense. But during their slow return to earth, the Cards offense ranked in a range of 25th to 29th in the essential categories.
Here’s a glance at the “before” and “after” drop in quality.
— Batting average: down 19 points
— On-base percentage: down 26 points
— Slugging percentage: down 48 points
— On-base + slugging: down 77 points
— Home runs per game: 1.17 to 0.82
— Isolated Power: down 31 points
— Runs per game: 4.6 to 4.1
The amount of doubles dropped significantly. There wasn’t much difference in the strikeout and walk rates. Stolen bases increased by an average of 1.4 bags per game.
As translated by adjusted runs created (wRC+) the Cardinals were one percent above league average offensively in their first 71 games … and are an alarming 19% below average offensively since June 17.
3. The dissolving offense, Part Two: the Cardinals have gotten bogged down during too many low-scoring days and nights at the ballpark. Since June 17 the Redbirds have scored 4 runs or fewer in 23 of their 34 games, the third highest total in the majors. Over this time their record when scoring no more than four runs is 7-16. In scoring no more than 3 runs in 19 of the 34 games, the Cards went 5-14.
4. Busch Stadium, you’ve lost that lovin’ feeling: I’ve been all over the Cardinals’ eye-opening disparity in home-road performance this season and have been tracking it since late May. This trend has been drawing a lot more media attention over the last week or so, and that’s a good thing. For the season the Cards average 3.69 runs per home game, which ranks 28th. And they’ve scored 5.24 runs per roadie, which ranks third. There’s also been a huge difference in home-run rate and slugging percentage in the home vs. road comparison for 2026.
5. Busch Stadium Two: I have some new data to add to the collection. This made me say ‘wow.’ In their last 19 home games the Cardinals have managed to score 4 runs or less 16 times. This is correct and should be repeated: the home team has scored no more than 4 runs in 16 of the last 19 games at Busch. Record: 4-12. And the Cards have scored 3 or fewer runs in 13 of the 19 home games. Record: 3-10. Of course a lack of offensive talent is part of this. Which brings me to…
6. Home-team hitters and bats turned to sawdust: when you look at this list you’ll understand why the Cardinals have been so dull and dreadful at Busch Stadium in their last 19 home games. I’ll use wRC+ here. (It’s OPS+ but a better version.) All you need to know is that 100 is league average. But I’ll boil it down and simply show you who is above league average, below league average – or just average – offensively at Busch Stadium since the 17th of June. Just the last names; you know who they are…
= Nootbaar, 21% above average
= Burleson, 9% above avg
= Fermin 1% above avg
= Walker: exactly average
= Torres, 25% below
= Herrera, 27% below avg
= Crooks, 30% below
= Winn, 66% below
= Wetherholt, 68% below
= Blaze Jordan, 83% below
= Pages, 84% below
= Velazquez, minus 113% below avg
= Church, minus 123% below avg
Is there an exorcist at Busch? Perhaps a St. Louis saint of timely hitting? Can I put out a call for a guardian angel of crooked numbers? Can I find the prophet of restored launch angles?
Fredbird? Hello?
7. Home cooking? Better get takeout. I’m having a little fun with this. But the offense that makes little sound is a major reason for the Cardinals 6-13 record at Busch Stadium since June 17. For the season the Cards have dipped to 27-29 at their home yard. It’s got to be a factor in why the home attendance ranks 19th in the majors for the second straight season.
8. Losing this Home Run Derby: During their unfortunate 13-21 straying from the winning path, the Cardinals are losing the home run battle. No surprise there; this team ranks 30th in the majors (last!) in homers since June 17th.
– The St. Louis batsmen have swatted at least one home run in only nine of 19 home games but are oddly just 4-5 when going deep in those contests. I’m gonna blame it on the St. Louis bullpen.
– The Cards have clobbered at least one homer in nine of their 15 road games over this time and are 7-2 when they send a pitch into home-run range. The fellers have gone berserk in some of these stops on the road tour since June 17. They had a four-homer game, two three-homer games, and another game with two jolts. The air space is much quieter at Busch Stadium.
– HRs, road and home combined since June 17: record of 11-7 when hitting 1+ homers in a game – and a mark of 2-14 when failing to bang a homer.
9. Pointing the blame-game finger at the bullpen. To reset: the Cardinals have the second-worst record (13-21) since June 17. And the St. Louis bullpen, at the very least, is a co-conspirator with the STL offense.
— Consider: in the 21 losses over the last six weeks, the Cardinals had the lead in 13 of the 21 games but couldn’t protect them. The offense certainly is a notable part of this particular problem, which I will get to here in a bit.
— Consider: during this 13-21 swerve, the Cards bullpen has eight saves – and six big blown saves. Not only that, but the relievers have allowed 22 of 53 inherited runners to score – a horrible 41.5 percent rate that ranks second worst in the NL since June 17. More in the next section. In a related note, since the All-Star break the Cardinal bullpen has two saves, four blown saves, a 5.83 ERA and has allowed 51 baserunners in 29 and ⅓ innings. Mercy. This is a Chaim Bloom problem. The bullpen is too thin and hasn’t been fortified in a meaningful way.
10. In losing 21 of 34 games, the Cards got walloped in the late innings. And we can easily determine why. It’s the deadly combination of the St. Louis offense and the St. Louis bullpen. This is the kind of teamwork we’d rather not see. Here’s why:
— During this 13-21 spin-out, Cards relievers have a 5.19 ERA from the 7th inning until the end of the game. And they’ve been hammered for 32 extra-base hits including 10 home runs. The gascans have also walked 12.6 percent of opposing hitters (awful) and struck out only 19.8% (also awful.)
— The teams that were lucky to face the Cardinals over the last 34 games got a 2.76 ERA from the bullpen from the 7th inning until the game’s end. And their relievers gave up only 16 extra-base hits including six homers. In comparison to the Cardinals, the other side’s strikeout and walk rates were outstanding.
— The St. Louis offense? Sheesh. In the last 34 games, the birds with the bats hit only .197 with a .541 OPS from the 7th inning on. Their wRC+ was an abhorrent 48 percent below league average offensively in these late-inning situations.
— The other side’s offense? In the last 34 games, from the 7th inning on, the “enemy” hitters batted .264 with a .779 OPS and a wRC+ that was 17 percent above league average offensively.
— Bottom line: in winning just 13 of their last 34 games, the Cardinals were outscored 62-30 from the 7th inning until the final out.
The Nice Section
Before I wrap up, I have some nice words for the Cardinals’ starting pitchers. Since June 17, the group of six pitchers who combined for 34 starts posted a 4.04 ERA that ranked 5th in the NL. And their 13 quality starts over the last six weeks was tied for 9th in the majors and 4th in the National League. And how about this stat? Over the last 34 games, Cards starting pitchers rank 2nd in the NL with 3.6 fWAR; since June 17 only the Brewers (4.2) have provided more value. This is an underrated unit.
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.