Greetings. I wish we could talk about a thriving and unstoppable Cardinal offense that’s beating up pitchers, grinding out excellent at bats, booming volleys of home runs, slashing doubles, excelling at situational hitting, stealing a lot of pillows and playing a smart brand of small ball.
Sadly, I cannot talk or tout any of that – simply because none of those pieces of excellence exist. Not in a tangible, meaningful way.
The Cardinals were skunked again on Monday evening at Busch Stadium, getting gently moved out of the way in a 7-3 victory by the Cubs. The visitors playfully let the Cardinals hang around for eight innings, but a mummified STL had no response. It was another nine innings of mostly terrible, giveaway at-bats.
The Cardinals are having a brutal homestand and a foul month of July. And in the pie fight for the NL’s third wild-card spot, the drumbeat of losses makes little sound. Despite the latest defeat, the Cardinals remained 1 and ½ games out of a playoff spot.
The pathetic mediocrity of the National League – other than the Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Cubs and Phillies – gives the Redbirds an opportunity to cosplay as a contender.
I’m thinking the Cardinals could lose their next 15 games and still be about 2 and ½ games within reach of that third wild-card ticket – the bootleg ticket.
Look, I know all about that.
As a teenager I purchased two tickets to a Led Zeppelin concert at Capital Centre and couldn’t believe I got them for such a bargain price! You know what happened next: the tickets were fake, and I was scammed. And the third wild-card ticket sure seems like a scam operation. Thanks, commissioner Manfred.
Before I operate my earth mover into place to dig into the topic of the day, let’s stop by the update desk …
With Tuesday’s rain-delayed delay of the inevitable loss, I can report on the state of the Cardinals.
— 53-53 on the season. They haven’t been at .500 since their level 8-8 record on April 13.
— The Cardinals have lost five of their last six. They’ve won only six of their last 20 games. They’re 9-15 in July for a .375 win% that ranks 14th among the 15 NL teams and 27th overall. The Birds have the NL’s worst record (13-22) since June 17.
— The team has defaulted on a home-field advantage. Over the past six weeks the Cardinals are 6-14 at Busch Stadium to submerge their season home record to 27-30.
— The worst part of their 6-14 mark in the last 20 home games? A putrid offense scored no more than four runs in 17 of the 20 home competitions. The record in those games is 4-13. The Cards are also 3-11 when scoring no more than three runs over the last 20 home games.
The St. Louis offense is nearing bankruptcy. Or so it seems. Which brings me to the top angle of today’s column …
On July 2nd and 3rd, the Cardinals went off for 38 runs in two games, battering the Braves and Cubs in back-to-back road routs. On July 4, the Cardinals put the Cubs down again in a workmanlike 3-0 win.
At the close of business on July 4, the Cardinals had an impressive 47-39 record as they sat down for dinner. Their .547 winning percentage was No. 6 in the National League, and No. 8 overall.
The season of good times and good feelings was rolling on. It was a Yacht Rock vibe, with the Cardinals sipping piña coladas, happy and laughing, and winning ballgames with the ease of a sunset cruise.
Since July 5 it’s been an entirely different experience for the Redbirds. The vibe: hell. The speakers have been vomiting death metal — shrieking guitars, smashed drums, guttural screams, intense distortion and macabre themes. The poor Redbirds got body‑slammed at every turn.
Since July 5, the Cardinals have the NL’s worst record at 6-14. Their .300 winning percentage ranks 29th overall.
And the Cards offense – above average from the start of the season through July 4 – collapsed into a heap of broken bats.
Over the last 23 days, they’ve disintegrated into MLB’s worst offense. And definitely the worst offense from a National League team.
I’m not exaggerating. Look at these numbers and rankings since the 5th day of July …
Average runs per game: 3.5. Last in the NL and 28th in MLB.
wRC+, or adjusted runs created: 38 percent below league average offensively, worst in MLB.
Player position fWAR: minus 1.0, worst in MLB.
Batting average: .202 worst in MLB.
On-base percentage: .269, worst in MLB.
Slugging pct: .307, worst in MLB.
OPS: .576, worst in MLB.
Extra-base hits: 38, last in NL and 29th in majors.
Home runs per game: 0.70, worst in NL and 29th overall.
AB/HR: one homer every 46.2 at-bats, worst in NL and 29th overall.
Win Probability Added: worst in NL, 29th overall.
A sign of the times: in the 20 games played since July 5, the Cardinals have been outscored 39-10 after the sixth inning. Some winnable games were lost with the offense hitting .164 with a .435 OPS and a 28% strikeout rate after the 6th inning. From the 7th inning on, STL hitters performed 75 percent below league average offensively. The horror.
From the start of the season through July 4, the Cardinals had a .723 team OPS. As a reference, that made them the team version (offensively) of Tommy Edman and Yadier Molina. Since July 5, their OPS makes them the team version, offensively, of Tony Cruz and Pete Kozma.
Since July 5, through Monday, only three Cardinal hitters have posted an above-average performance in adjusted runs created: Jimmy Crooks, Alec Burleson, and Jordan Walker.
The other Cardinals are below league average over the 20 games since July 5. Here’s the list, and I’ll show you just how far below average these hitters are during this terrible stretch:
Jose Fermin: 13% below average.
Lars Nootbaar: 32% below.
JJ Wetherholt: 36% below.
Masyn Winn: 46% below.
Blaze Jordan: 51% below.
Ivan Herrera: 67% below.
Bryan Torres: 68% below.
Nelson Velazquez: 116% below.
Pedro Pages: 123% below.
Nathan Church: 144% below.
Late Monday night, after watching the latest snooze-fest, I asked myself a question: When was the last time I saw a Cardinal offense this bad?
I assumed the answer would be found in the early 1990s – before 1996, when Bill DeWitt Jr. became the owner and Tony La Russa was hired as manager.
I vaguely remembered one particularly hideous offense put out there.
The 1995 Cardinals.
I mean no disrespect to the players I’ll mention here. But as a group the ‘95 Cardinals finished last in the majors in runs per game. They were last in the majors in OBP, slug, OPS, and adjusted runs created. They hit the second-fewest home runs and had the second-worst batting average.
The 1995 Cardinals gave a generous share of at-bats to Tripp Cromer, Scott Cooper, Tom Pagnozzi, John Mabry, Jose Oquendo, Danny Sheaffer, Darnell Coles, David Bell, Geronimo Pena, Scott Hemond and Allen Battle.
Ozzie Smith hit .282 but injuries limited him to 44 games. Shout-out to Cards TV analyst Mark Sweeney, who was a solid hitter in a part-time role. (He’s an outstanding analyst, too.)
Todd Zeile was having an above-average season offensively in ‘95 before the Anheuser-Busch ownership rep ordered GM Walt Jocketty to fire manager Joe Torre and trade Zeile.
Zeile infuriated the brewery execs by declining an offered contract extension and was shipped to the Cubs.
The stars were the three starting outfielders: Bernard Gilkey, Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan.
The trio was really good, and provided a lot of action, combining for an average of 21 homers, 64 RBIs, 29 doubles, 20 steals, and 70 runs scored. Collectively, their OPS+ was 24 percent above league average offensively. Other than that, mostly cricket sounds.
The ‘95 team also had decent pitching but the overall offense failed to provide consistent impact, and the Cardinals finished 19 games below .500.
This Cardinals’ current blight on offense is bringing back some memories.
What's the key to improvement?
Is there a way out of this malaise for the current cast of Cardinal hitters?
There's one way to get it going -- come up with better talent.
That's what the 1996 Cardinals did in response to the flat-tire offense of '95. Before TLR's first season, Jocketty made a series of maneuvers that paid off. The Cardinals signed Ron Gant, Gary Gaetti and Willie McGee as free agents. Gant and Gaetti combined for 53 home runs and 162 RBIs. McGee had a .348 OBP and slugged .417.
Jocketty acquired shortstop Royce Clayton as insurance in case Ozzie broke down again. But Ozzie was ready to go, played in 82 games, and performed very well. Infielder Luis Alicea returned to St. Louis after some time with the Red Sox. Jordan and Lankford were back and put in above-average offense again in '1996.
La Russa gave Sweeney more playing time and the left-handed hitting first baseman chipped in with a 104 OPS+. Mabry improved from '95. Jocketty prompted top hitting prospect Dmitri Young from the minors late in the season and the rookie smashed a two-run triple to beat the Braves in NLCS Game 4. The Cards had a more capable bench in 1996, and that made a difference. The manager was pretty good, too. Just a future Hall of Famer who stayed for 16 seasons and led the Cardinals to nine postseason appearances, three NL pennants and two World Series titles. In his first season as the leader of the franchise, La Russa guided the 1996 Cardinals to Game 7 of the NLCS before they crashed out. It was a long, long, long way from the nothingness of 1995.
The lesson of 1996: want to have a stronger offense? Upgrade the talent.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.