The beat goes on … and so do the beatdowns. Another opponent has come into Busch to execute a successful home-field invasion.
The Cubs were the latest to swoop in and pocket some victories without getting nabbed, winning three of four from the crestfallen Cardinals.
The Cardinals had an early lead but couldn’t scratch and sniff for another run that could have won the day and gotten them a 2-2 series draw. Instead the Cubbies just waited the Cardinals out, wouldn’t allow a comeback this time, and left downtown with a 4-2 win in 10 innings.
The Cardinals were an embarrassing 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position. I don’t care that this is a young team – there is no excuse for a major-league club to take so many weak, non-competitive at-bats.
And the “young team” crutch got snapped in two when Lars Nootbaar – soon to be 29 years old – lost track of the number of outs after making the catch on a fly ball to right field. He assumed it was the third out and the end of the 7th inning. He was mistaken and misguided.
The Cubs assumed Nootbaar napped on the play, reacted accordingly, and used the opening to push home the go-ahead run. Nootbaar assisted the visitors with a throwing error. The scoreboard flashed 2-2. The home team’s momentum was gone. And you have to wonder if Nootbaar will be gone by Monday's trade deadline.
Nootbaar’s air-headed mistake wasted a good start by Andre Pallante and reduced the impact of the solo home run by JJ Wetherholt that tied the score 2-2 in the bottom of the seventh. That should have been the HR that put the Cards into the lead.
Nootbaar made his major-league debut in 2021, and this is his sixth season in the bigs. According to the media-pushed narrative, he is the veteran leader, the big brother of the Cardinal Kids, their clubhouse touchstone, the elder who will teach them the right way to play the game.
Lars the Leader couldn’t bother to pay attention with the game on the line. Appropiately the game ended with Nootbaar striking out. In July, he’s batting .178 with one homer, an emaciated .260 slugging percentage and a .554 OPS. The Cardinals are 10-20 in Nootbaar’s last 30 starts.
And we’re supposed to believe this team would crack up and be unable to cope if Chaim Bloom has the sense to trade Nootbaar before his value completely evaporates?
Here’s the updated trends-watching report:
– The Cardinals have flopped below level again at 54-55.
– They are 28-32 at Busch Stadium.
– They have lost five of their last six series at home. They are 4-7 in their last 11 series in their yard.
– The home team’s record at Busch since June 17 is a gutted 7-16.
– In these last 23 Busch ballgames, the Cardinals have scored four or fewer runs 20 times and are 5-15 in those instances.
– In the last 23 Busch battles, the Cards have scored no more than three runs 17 times and are 4-13 when suppressed.
– The Cardinals were 47-39 after defeating the Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 4 … but their fireworks have been doused. Since July 5 the Redbirds have lost 16 of 23 games overall, and 11 of 15 on their home turf.
– The Cards have won only 7 of their last 20 series. They’ve won only 3 of their last 11 series. They have lost four consecutive series.
— The offense remains dormant, dull and perhaps disoriented. Or would that be disinterested? Since July 5 – when the Cardinals went sideways and the wheels came off – they’re averaging 3.3 runs and are last in the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS.
Other than that, they remind me of the 2004 Cardinals … specifically the 2004 Cardinals who got swept out of the World Series by the Red Sox. In the final three games, St. Louis scored only three runs in 27 innings.
Let’s talk about something positive.
1. Good on ya, D-May. It’s great that you had faith in the Cardinals to protect your pitching health and keep you working instead of encountering more heartache with injuries. Twenty-one starts without a significant disruption. And from where we sit, it’s obvious that your teammates have immense respect for you. The hug-party scene in the dugout Wednesday after you shut out the Cubs for five innings was absolutely wonderful.
2. Credit to Cards president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom. He envisioned a good match between the Redbirds and May and his instincts were spot on. This worked out very well for both May and the Cardinals. This is how every free-agent deal should go … but many don’t.
3. Bloom’s guaranteed commitment of $12.5 million to May was a terrific investment. According to the FanGraphs’ valuations, May’s performance was worth $20.7 million – which gave him the 20th highest value among MLB starters through Wednesday.
4. A long list of free-agent starting pitchers signed one-year deals with new teams last winter, and the May contract became one of the bargains in the market. Other smart one-year signings were topped by Nick Martinez (Tampa Bay) and Foster Griffin (Washington). But May has a higher fWAR and salary valuation than both of them. The May investment – as sure as his red beard – was a helluva lot more successful than the more high-profile one-year signings that included Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Zach Eflin, Tyler Mahle, Zac Gallen, Zack Littell, Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning, Tomoyuki Sugano and others.
5. Now we wait and see what Bloom will get for May in the trade market. I assume there’s considerable interest, but my expectations are somewhat limited because May is a so-called “rental” for the team that acquires him.
6. If I may? I had to chuckle at all of the breathless “reporting” a day ago that informed us the Cardinals were shopping Dustin May. That’s funny. Don’t these people realize the Cardinals were – for all intents and purposes – shopping May from the moment they signed him?
7. May had a 4.38 ERA this season but his performance was better than indicated by such basic accounting. May’s 3.16 fielding-independent ERA impressively ranks 10th among 70 MLB starting pitchers with 100+ innings pitched. He’s also tied for 20th among the 70 with 2.6 fWAR. After getting smacked down in his first two starts as a Cardinal, May 2.92 FIP that ranked 7th among major-league starters since April 10. During the season May turned in a 2.69 FIP over a 12-start stretch. He also closed strong with a 2.42 FIP in his last five starts. He was nicked for only one earned run in 11 innings over his final two starts (presumably) for St. Louis.
MOVING ALONG …
— Quinn Mathews, on the way to the show? It’s about time. In his last nine starts for Triple A Memphis, Mathews went 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA and a 31 percent strikeout rate in 52 and ⅓ innings. Opponents batted only .130 against Mathews in the nine starts, and the lefty limited them to 0.86 homers per nine innings .. and 0.78 walks/hits per inning. The slider is Mathews’ best pitch this season. He’s gotten hitters to chase the pitch out the strike zone 38.4% of the time, has a 43.3% whiff-swing rate when he throws it, and he’s used it for a 35.4% putaway rate.
— Here’s Thomas Nestico of the excellent TJStats, writing on Mathews:
“Just over a year ago he was considered a consensus top-15 pitching prospect in baseball, but a slew of injuries and a collapse in his command derailed his ascent to MLB.
“Although the latter continues to stall his development, Mathews has rediscovered his strikeout potential in AAA this season while keeping his walks in check over the last few weeks. His 29.8% K% is elite, with each of his 5 offerings yielding above-average whiff rates.
“It is great to see Mathews gradually get back on track, and his recent performance indicates that he could potentially be a viable back-end rotation arm for the Cardinals.”
— Since the All Star break, the Cardinals have hit just six home runs in 474 at-bats over 14 games. Good grief.
— Random and unsettling stat of the day: In the month of June in 2003, Cardinal center fielder Jim Edmonds hit 14 home runs in 96 at-bats. Since the start of the 2025 season, Cardinal center fielders have combined for 15 home runs in 487 at-bats.
— Random and head-scratching stat of the day: Going into Thursday, Cardinals star Jordan Walker and Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber had combined for 1 home run in 99 plate appearances since the All-Star break. Schwarber leads Walker 1-0.
— About the All-Star Game and what came next: Granted, Walker won the HR Derby and it was hard work. But through Wednesday July 29, he wasn’t the only All-Star who hadn’t homered since the break. All-Stars Freddie Freeman, Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Juan Soto, Luis Arraez and Otto Lopez hadn’t homered either. (Though Bellinger was injured on July 25.)
— Lefty reliever Justin Bruihl continues to do a nice job for the Cardinals. In his last 14 appearances Bruihl has a 2.29 ERA and has stifled left-handed hitters with a slash line of .179/.205/.273. If we go back to April 17, Bruihl’s ERA is 2.70. I wonder if he’s attracting any trade interest?
— Going into Thursday’s game vs. the Ursine Mammals, rookie JJ Wetherholt had 7 hits in 49 at-bats (.143) in his previous 14 games at Busch Stadium. Through Wednesday Wetherholt had a .278 average, .461 slugging percentage and .855 OPS on the road. But at Busch he was hitting .228 with a .322 slug and .626 OPS. Wetherholt’s on-base percentage is 91 points higher on the road (.395) than at Busch Stadium.
That’s why it was positive to see Wetherholt jump on a hanging curve Thursday afternoon for a solo home run that tied the game at 2-2 in the 7th.
— Healthy young men: Going into Thursday, Cardinals power-hitting prospects Joshua Baez, Jesus Baez, Jack Gurevitch, Rainiel Rodriguez, Won-Bin Cho, Tai Peete, and Yordalin Pena had combined for 33 home runs in 478 July at-bats. That computes to an average of one home run every 14.4 at-bats. Josh Baez is at AAA Memphis. Jesus Baez, Cho and Rodriguez are at Double A Springfield. Gurevitch and Peete are at High A Peoria, and Pena is at Low A Palm Beach.
— Rookie reliever Luis Gastelum is getting his MLB indoctrination and it’s been a rough start to what can be a good career. This has happened thousands and thousands of times in baseball history – making the leap to MLB isn’t easy – but I don’t want to be too hard on the dude. I wonder why hitters are picking up on his changeup so easily. Not including his appearance Thursday against the Cubs – it did not go well – opponents had mashed Gastelum’s change for a .313 average, .813 slug, two homers and two doubles in 18 plate appearances. I’ve heard folks refer to Gastelum’s four-seam fastball – and how it isn’t good enough to stop hitters from sitting on his change – but before Thursday opponents had a .111 average on that fastball. So … I don’t know.
— The Cardinals will play ball at Toronto this weekend. The defending AL-champ Blue Jays aren’t having much fun on the field or in the clubhouse. An 11-20 freefall has dumped Toronto into last place in the AL East with a 50-59 record.
— The Blue Jays have scored the fewest runs in the majors. They rank 25th in home runs and 29th in OPS. There have been too many injuries and underachieving performances. Incredibly, Blue Jays star Vlad Guerrero Jr. hasn’t hit a single home run 51 home games this season covering 218 plate appearances.
— The good vibrations of last season’s magical trip to the pennant and celebrations have faded out. The mood is cold in the Blue Jays’ sanctuary.
— “We’re just not nearly as close-knit of a group as we were last year,” Toronto starting Kevin Gausman said during a recent appearance on the Toronto Star‘s baseball podcast. “Every single person here is frustrated, annoyed, mad, but it is what it is. This is the group we’ve got. I still believe in every single guy in that room, and in the staff that’s leading them.”
— “I don’t think we necessarily have the characters we’ve had in the past,” Gausman said. “Max (Scherzer) hasn’t been around as much. I think losing (pitcher Chris Bassitt to free agency) was maybe a little bit bigger of a loss than we all thought it would be.”
— The Cardinals should perk up, go into the Rogers Centre with renewed energy, and go win a series from the demoralized Blue Jays.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.