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The Kansas City Chiefs are as inescapable as those too-early Christmas-season TV commercials, 4th of July fireworks, rabid political polarization, Artificial Intelligence, and cute cat videos on social media. The Chiefs, much like the Kardashians, simply will not go away.
If the Chiefs start the season slowly, and stall out, and appear to be alarmingly vulnerable … well, pay it no mind.
Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Charles Jones, Travis Kelce, Steve Spagnuolo and those familiar arrowhead helmet decals will reappear soon enough to remind everyone that KC is still the team to beat.
In prospecting the odds to win the Super Bowl, DraftKings lists Kansas City as a +450 favorite, followed by Detroit (+650), Green Bay (+700) and Buffalo (+800).
After their disorienting 1-2 start in their first three games, the Chiefs have won four of their last five tests and are cresting as they prepare for a toughening of the schedule that features Buffalo, Denver and Indianapolis in their next three games.
Monday’s 28-7 home victory over Washington was a summary of the Chiefs’ season so far: a wobbly start and confusion – followed by their get-the-hell-outta-the-way domination.
That 7-7 halftime tie? Gone, like the pregame tailgate-party smoke in the parking lots.
In case you missed it, here’s how Kansas City reset and opened the second half …
First three drives: three touchdowns. The three journeys to the end zone averaged 83 yards. Kansas City’s snaps from scrimmage netted an average of 8.9 yards per play. The Spagnuolo defense choked off the Commanders in the second half, giving up only 66 yards in 20 plays.
Kansas City’s 28-7 victory wasn’t some sort of dramatic “statement” game … it was more like a return to the norm after the early turbulence.
The Chiefs are 5-3. Their defense has allowed the NFL’s second-fewest points per game (16.4). The Reid-Mahomes offense has scored at least 28 points in five consecutive games. The Chiefs’ four wins during this stretch were delivered by an average victory margin of 20.5 points. The gradual rise of the KC offense has put the team at fifth in the NFL for most yards per game (378.5).
The key to Kansas City’s turnaround was the return of wide receivers Xavier Worthy (from injury) and Rashee Rice (from a league suspension).
Mahomes is dealing again. He can throw to open receivers. He can dish those quick screen passes that are a favorite in the Reid playbook. With these two fast engines back in the offense, it’s opened the middle of the field for Kelce the tight end.
The difference in the statistics in Mahomes’ first three games – compared to the last five contests – is revealing.
Completion percentage: 59%, which ranked 26th among NFL starting quarterbacks … to 71.3% which ranks 4th.
Catchable-ball rate: 79.4%, 29th among NFL quarterbacks … to 88.8%, which ranks 6th.
On-target throws: 66%, which ranked 27th … to 80.6%, which ranks 2nd.
Touchdown-pass percentage: 2.9%, which was far down in the rankings … to 7.7% which is 5th best.
Passing efficiency: 21st in the first three games … and 3rd in the last five games.
Sports Info Solutions passer rating: 77.0 in the first three games (26th) to 120.0 (4th) in the last five.
Points Above Replacement metric: ranked 15th in the first three games, and is No. 1 among NFL quarterbacks over the last five.
Expected Points Added metric: ranked 13th over the first three games and is 4th among quarterbacks over the last five.
Points Above Average metric: ranked 16th over the first three games … and is No. 1 among NFL passers over the last five.
Positive-play percentage: 41.4%, ranked 24th. But in the last five games, it’s the best by an NFL quarterback at 58.1%.
“Bust” passing plays: 22.5% in the first three games, which ranked 21st … and only 12.2% over the last five games, which ranks No. 1.
Mahomes’ pass protection has improved, but that’s no surprise considering that he has open receivers now and isn’t holding onto the ball waiting for one of his targets to get free. The pass-rush pressure on Mahomes was 36 percent in the first three games – and only 25% over the last five.
Here’s how that’s paying off: via NextGen stats from the NFL, Mahomes averaged 2.95 seconds to throw in Monday’s win – his longest this season. When he had four seconds to release a throw, Mahomes completed 8 of 9 passes for 149 yards and all three of his touchdown passes.
Another difference in the last five games? Mahomes has completed 20 of 21 quick screens to his wideouts to neutralize the defense pass rush.
In their current three-game winning streak, the Chiefs have whomped their victim opponents by an average score of 30-8. The Spags defense has allowed just 14 points over the last 10 quarters.
With Worthy and Rice doing their thing, the defense can’t smother Kelce, and his 474 receiving yards put him at No. 2 among NFL tight ends through eight weeks.
Mahomes is back on top of the NFL leaderboard with 17 touchdown passes and ranks second in passing yards with 2,099. This is more like it.
With his enlarged cast of receivers and more available options, Mahomes is having a ball while distributing the football. In his last five games, he’s attempted passes to 13 different receivers. Seven were aimed at wideouts, three targeted tight ends, and three were flicked to running backs. That’s crazy. It must be difficult for a defender to cover a receiver when (1) he has no idea where the ball is going, and (2) his head is spinning.
The next set of games will test the Chiefs’ resurgence. Sure. But once again the NFL is discovering that it’s hard to keep the Chiefs down. After getting walloped by Philadelphia in last season’s Super Bowl, Kansas City is vibing again. A big part of the success is the team culture filtered by Reid during his 13 seasons in KC.
“They complement each other,” Reid says of his players. “That's a positive. At this level, you need everybody. And they stay positive; that's a part I appreciate. Even when it's up and down, they stay positive and create energy, and with that, they're able to come around and make plays on both sides of the ball.”
The Chiefs have that inevitable look again.
Thanks for reading … if you missed yesterday's column on Mizzou Football, click HERE!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Bernie’s all-time favorite tweet from a follower? “Bernie, been reading you a long time,” from Tom Morello of Rage Against The Machine. (He’s a Rams fan and followed the team closely during their St. Louis years.)
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
During the baseball season, Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STLSportsCentral featuring Bernie and Randy Karraker.