“Jordan Walker Week” continues here in the Bernie Miklasz column.
Today’s focus: Is Walker just on a molten-lava hot streak that soon will cool, and fade. This would leave him lunging at so many non-strike pitches that he’ll corkscrew into the dirt around home plate, and the Cardinals will have to use a tripod/rope system to pull him from the hole he’s dug himself. No! We don’t want to go back again! But the question is relevant, simply because Walker has starred in these home-run derbies before. And then he shuts down. Will Walker’s 2026 start looking more like 2024 and 2025 all over again?
OK, who is worried about a return to the Tilt a Whirl ride with Walker? In case the reference confuses you, well, it confuses me too. And I wrote it. But I loved that amusement-park ride as a husky young lad, so … the Tilt a Whirl is a ride that creates a disorienting, high-energy experience by combining circular movement with unexpected, rapid spinning and tipping caused by gravity and the uneven weight distribution of riders.”
The rider in the key position here is Walker. He’s relaxed at the plate. But, it’s natural to wonder if trouble is right around the corner – as in a slider thrown low and outside that misses the corner … and Walker swings at the damn thing. But Cardinals fans are trying to ride with him as he smashes a homer, then strikes out, clobbers a homer, then strikes out, hits the ball 459 feet, then hits the ball not at all – because there goes another whiff-swing and a strikeout.
Personally, I’m an optimist. But I do not blame anyone else for being pessimistic, skeptical, or just too shocked to believe that what we’ve been seeing is real, and cannot last.
Cards fans – at least some – are holding on tight. And to assure that Walker stays in this preposterous power zone of his, some may explore drastic measures, like the ritual sacrifice of Fredbird (sorry dude) as a gift to the baseball gods.
Bernie, if Walker is launching all of these homers, so what? Terrific question, and I get it. With all of the Walker blasts lighting up the Cards’ season, why fret over a high strikeout total? Isn’t that an acceptable tradeoff?
Again, that’s a swell question, and I’ve been thinking about it. Here’s the best way for me to explain it. Before I get into it, let’s reset: Walker is tied for the MLB lead with five home runs, and he’s slugging at a herculean rate of .682. His isolated power number (.386) is the second-best in the league. His overall rate of offense has been delivered with a force that puts him (per wRC+) a phenomenal 91 percent above league average offensively.
In the Cardinals’ five games leading into their scheduled off day (Thursday), Walker homered four times, drove in nine runs, powered for a .381 batting average, and slugged .952.
Of course, that berserk rate isn’t sustainable for more than a week, maybe 10 days. Baseball’s gravity will not allow those types of numbers to hang in the sky for long. They will come down.
OK, that’s how it goes in baseball. So what’s the problem? This brings us to my reason for anxiety. In a word? Strikeouts. Too many.
This could lead to … bad things.
In his last eight games, Walker has struck out 13 times in 33 plate appearances for a 39.3 percent strike-three, yer out rate. This could be a temporary thing. Up until then, Walker’s strikeout rate was under control, and he had a high walk rate to go with it.
That’s changed. Take a look:
First 4 games
– 16 plate appearances
– 1 strikeout
– 6.25% strikeout rate
– 14% swing and miss rate from being more selective.
– Walker put the ball in play or walked in 93.8 percent of his plate appearances.
Last 8 games
– 33 plate appearances
– 13 strikeouts
– 39.3% strikeout rate
– 40.6% swing and miss rate.
– Walker put the ball in play or walked in 60.6 percent of his plate appearances.
The big man has been more aggressive in swinging at pitches. And the reward has been four home runs in his last 21 at-bats before the off day. He also struck out 8 times in 23 plate appearances (34.7%). But yes, that was the tradeoff. And a beneficial tradeoff for sure.
See, that’s the problem with small-sample cliff jumping. And small-sample celebrations.
We overreact – positive or negative – over a stretch of four games, eight games, 12 games, etc.
It isn’t meaningless … but it isn’t exactly meaningful. Walker’s plate discipline was excellent in the first four games of the season. One strikeout three walks. Yes. But only “only” one homer. That tradeoff wasn’t as impactful.
By attacking more pitches, Walker piled up more strikeouts, and walks were an afterthought. But in return for his more free-wheeling approach, the tower of power clouted a home run every 7.75 at-bats over his last eight games – and we can boil that down to a HR every 5.25 at-bats in his last four competitions.
Jordan made a choice to swing his club more often. And it paid off. But would this hitting approach cost him, hurt him, over the long term? That’s the part that doesn’t invite a quick and easy answer.
But sure, this could turn into a problem if the swing-miss and strikeout totals continue to escalate. Because every time Walker strikes out, that’s one less opportunity to do some deep damage with a home run. And while this hasn’t happened yet, I think it’s fair to think that more strikeouts could lead to less confidence for Walker. That wouldn’t be good. But then again … when he connects, and drives a pitch into the sky, the ball travels fast, and the ball travels far.
Here’s a point of reference:
First 4 games: made contact 12 times, one homer – or 8.3 percent HR per contact.
Last 8 games: made contact 18 times, four homers – or 22.2 percent HR per contact. That’s elite!
In Walker’s case, a high strikeout total significantly limits his home run ceiling. And by swinging at more pitches, Walker (in the best-case scenario) will fly more home runs.
If Walker can find a balance – perhaps being more selective but without losing too much of his attacking mentality – he’d be in a good place.
We know about the reward for his plate aggressiveness: ball go far. Home run. But the risk is Walker backsliding into some poor habits that caused two straight years (2024-25) of numbing futility on offense.
This: In his first four games, Walker swung at 38.7 percent of the pitches served to him. That’s about 8 percent lower than the MLB average. And his plate discipline was strong; Walker chased pitches out of the strike zone only 20 percent of the time. That’s great!
And this: In his last eight games, Walker swung at pitches 47 percent of the time, which is right around league average. So his number of swings wasn’t excessive. However: the problem is, when doing all of that swinging, Walker also chased pitches out of the strike zone at an undesirable rate of 34%.
Yes, he still crushed four homers in the five games before the off day. So I’m not going to wave that off as something minor. It was significant for a hitter that struggled so terribly over the past two years.
But here’s a question, and please be honest when you reflect on it. If Jordan Walker reverts to a much higher strikeout rate, and he continues to chase pitches out of the strike zone with alarming frequency … Do you think he’d still hit a lot of home runs? I have my doubts. Serious doubts. Then again, it doesn’t have to be this way. As I said earlier, Walker can still be aggressive – without being overly aggressive. If he can establish that equilibrium, he’ll have a fantastic 2026.
Walker has the launch angle working, and that's a huge development in his career. A turning point. He’s hitting more home runs because he isn’t hitting nearly as many ground balls. He’s finding the sweet spot now. He’s barreling pitches like never before. He’s been able to get the perfect attack angle on his swing at an impressive rate – one that’s much higher than the past two seasons. That’s why it’s so important for Walker to swing at pitches he can destroy with that killer attack-angle swing.
I have faith in Jordan for another reason: the amazing improvement he’s displayed this season – compared to 2025 – in the Statcast categories that really matter. If you can tolerate more numbers from me, I’m happy to show you what I’m referring to.
I’ll list each category, and offer only one number – which shows how much he’s improved from 2025.
Here we go:
Batting Run Value: 92 percent improvement from last year.
Expected batting average: 90 percent improvement.
Expected slugging percentage: up 84 percent.
Base Running Value: up 24%
Average exit velocity: up 9%
Barrel rate: an increase of 33%
Hard-hit rate: up 13%
Launch angle sweet spot: up 85%
Pct. of swings an ideal attack angle: improvement of 17%
Bat speed: the same; in the top one percent of all hitters.
Squared-up rate: 52 percent increase.
Whiff-swing rate: improved 23%
Chase rate: improved 43%
Strikeout rate: better by 22%
Walk rate: up 16%
Fielding Run Value: up 73%
Fielding range: increase of 44%
Arm value: increase of 89%
Sprint speed: up 10 percent.
Seriously. Still only 23, Jordan Walker has displayed a remarkable degree of improvement in so many areas of the game. When you see a profile like this – which shows just how elite he’s become – then there’s a lot of reason to be hopeful and optimistic.
How can any of this be considered a fluke when just about everything about his performance has reached a much higher level? Walker is still learning, so the swing selections are a work in progress. Give it some time. Wait for a much larger sample size. And we’ll see where he is a couple of months from now.
WHAT ARE THE PITCHERS DOING?
One more look before I go.
How have pitchers changed their approach with Walker? Hey, first of all, I should remember that he did bang four home runs in 21 at-bats earlier this week. He’s won his share of confrontations, and in a big way.
That said, pitchers will find ways to mess with Walker. Those efforts are surfacing. His recent increase in strikeout and swing-miss rates are the result of specific strategies.
1. High heat. Over the last eight games, Walker has seen 24 fastballs at 96+ mph in the upper third of the zone or higher. Walker has swung at 14 of these high four-seam fastballs and missed 10.
2. Walker seems to be hunting pitches low and in, but when the hard, high-velo stuff comes at him north in the zone, he can’t adjust his swing in time.
3. There’s the “shadow zone” slider: 11 of his 26 whiff swings came on sliders or sweepers that started in the zone and darted down and away from him. He chased those pitches at a rate of 35% over the last eight games.
4. Two-strike vulnerability: On two-strike counts over the past eight games, Walker had a whiff-swing rate of 52%. Pitchers were getting ahead of Walker in the count. And once they got ahead of him, they dangled the bait to exploit his aggression.
5. A scout from another team told me this: if Walker doesn't adjust to the high fastball soon, teams like the Brewers and Cubs will make him pay; both teams have their share of high-spin, high-velocity arms.
When Walker connected over the past eight games? Good gracious, he had an average exit velocity of 98.2 mph.
The big man just needs to make sure he will connect enough to make those tricky pitchers pay and blow up their ERA.
Thanks for reading, excuse my typos, and have a wonderful weekend.
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.