Good afternoon, good evening. Bernie here, writing like a mad man, so let’s get right to the material and cut through the beeswax.
Today’s Subject: The decline of the St. Louis offense. After a robust March-April offensively, the Cards have weakened in May. You’ll see the March-April National League rankings on the left, and the May rankings on the right.
Runs per game: 5.01, 6th … 3.5, 14th
HR per game: 1.32, 5th … 0.57, 13th
On-base rate: .326, 6th … .306, 7th
Walk Rate: 9.7%, 5th … 7.6%, 11th
Slugging pct: .401, 6th … .360, 11th
Isolated Power: .162, 6th … .123, 11th
OPS: .727, 4th … .666, 11th
wRC+: 108, 4th … 92, 9th
OK, so what are the primary problems here?
1. POWER DROP: The Cards’ home-run rate in May is down 58.6 percent from the standard established in March-April. Their rate of extra-base hits has dropped sharply. The Cards lineup is relying far too much on station-to-station baseball, which they don’t execute well enough to compensate for the lack of slugging.
2. SMALL BALL STALL: the Cards’ previously acclaimed small-ball component is no longer functioning at a high level. And yeah, I brought some receipts.
— The Cardinals led the NL (and all of MLB) with 15 sacrifice flies in their 31 games in March-April. But with three games left in May, the Cards have only five sac flies, which ranks 17th overall and 9th in the NL.
— For all of the attempts at sac bunts, the Cardinals had seven successes in the first month and have executed it five times in May. The 60% success rate is league average; nothing special. And for all of the emphasis on Victor Scott bunting for base hits, the Cards have six bunt singles. Four other NL teams have at least nine including the Nationals with 17.
— This is especially damning: in March-April the Cardinals had 25 stolen bases in 30 attempts for a success rate of 83.3%. Good job! Well, in May the Cards have swiped just 10 bases and have been caught stealing nine times for a terrible success rate of 52.6%.
— The Cards’ productive outs percentage (31.2%) ranks 8th in the NL. This team has made fewer advances on productive outs in May as compared to March-April.
— The Cards still run the bases well when trying to scoot from first to third on a single or dash around to score from first on a double. But the aggressive, heads-up, resourceful and creative ability to forge runs – which worked well in the first month – just isn’t the same in May. For the season the Redbirds have a scoring rate of 13.3 percent for base-runners that get home on a batter’s play. That’s one of the lowest rates in the majors, and the percentage for May is down. The Cardinals just don’t move runners up enough to get them in place to score. And they don’t get the hit or hits they need to plate more “manufactured” runs.
— Victor Scott is mostly a non-factor on the basepaths. Last season Scott ranked sixth in the NL with 34 steals and had one of the best success rates (89.4) in the league. This season Scott has just seven steals – tied for 27th in the NL – and has a poor success rate of 64%.
3. THE STAGGERING LINEUP GAP: As I’ve pointed out a few times recently, there is a huge divide in performance and productivity turned in by the 1-2-3-4 spots in the STL lineup compared to the 5-6-7-8 slots. For the season, the Cards 1-2-3-4 hitters are statistically the best of any first-four lineup block in the National League. But STL’s 5-6-7-8-9 sequence is 13th offensively among NL lineups.
— Per wRC+, the Cards 1-2-3-4 spots are 30 percent above league average offensively. And the 5-6-7-8-9 group is 24 percent below league average offense offensively. That lineup split in quality is a difference of 54 percent. That is massive.
— The gap is even wider in May. The 1-2-3-4 hitters in the Cards lineup are 27 percent above league average offensively this month, which is third best in the NL. But the 5-6-7-8-9 spots are 40 percent below league average. That’s a 67 percent difference in the lineup-split quality. Stunning.
— Takeaway? The first four of JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker are imposing and highly effective. As a collective, the remainder of lineup spots – most often Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, Pedro Pages and Victor Scott – is mostly awful. And certainly underwhelming.
4. FAILURE TO CASH IN: The Cardinals are horrendous at converting opportunities into runs with teammates in scoring position. For the season STL ranks last (15th) in the NL with a .222 average with RISP. In May the Cardinals are even worse at the scoring touch with a .198 average in RISP chances.
— I just explained why the 5-6-7-8-9 lineup spots are draining this team’s energy and production. But now I have the capper for you. In May, the 5-6-7-8-9 Cardinal hitters are collectively batting .103 with men in scoring position. Yes. That’s 10 hits in 97 at-bats. Per wRC+ the 5-6-7-8-9 spots are 95 percent below league average offensively with runners in scoring position this month. Three of the more experienced hitters – Scott, Winn and Pages – are a combined 3 for 41 this month with RISP. That’s an .073 batting average. It’s an absurd situation. And the roster-spot job security granted to some of these dudes is an embarrassment.
5. THE BROKEN BENCH: The 2024 Cardinals were hideous in offensive production from their bench players. In 2025, the benchers did a good job, posting a .246 pinch-hit batting average and ranking tied for 5th in the NL with 15 pinch RBIs. So far this year? It’s, well, uninspiring. Though the bench dudes have actually delivered an improved pinch-hit batting average in May, for the season STL pinch hitters have a .182 average (10th NL) and rank tied for last in the league with two pinch RBIs. 10 major-league teams have at least nine pinch RBIs so far, and eight have double-digit RBI titles.
6. GOOD OPTIONS ARE AVAILABLE IN MEMPHIS. I’ll write more about this Friday, but the Cardinals have three viable options at Triple A Memphis to move up to the big club and boost this tired-ass offense. I’m referring to outfielder Joshua Baez, catcher-DH Jimmy Crooks, and corner infielder Blaze Jordan. The three have combined for 37 homers, 95 RBIs and a .560 slugging percentage at Triple A. Baez and Crooks are already on the 40-man roster; Jordan would have to be added. Josh Baez is playing a lot of center field these days. Is this a clue?
That’s enough for today. I’ll have a Part II on Friday, looking at current Cardinals in a few different ways:
A) Unlucky hitters who could be in for an upturn in their stat-sheet bottom-line performance.
B) The Comeback Factor. That would be Lars Nootbaar. He definitely should help the transfusion effort. But how much?
C) Poor-contact guys, weak contact guys, and their limited upside.
D) Is it time to adjust our expectations for Masyn Winn as a hitter?
E) A closer look at The Memphis Boys.
That’s what I’m focusing on for the next afternoon column, to be delivered Friday.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.