I’m cheating a little today because I missed the unofficial, must-write, traditional deadline to analyze the condition of your favorite baseball team at the annual Memorial Day checkpoint.
I could have waited until June 14, aka Flag Day, which is Mike Claiborne’s milepost for really inspecting MLB teams for the first time in the new season. I respect Claibs’ steadfast stubbornness on this.
But what the heck. I had the day off Monday so I’m getting to the state-of-the-Cardinals address a day after the national holiday.
Which works for me because Memorial Day should be set aside to honor the brave souls who sacrificed their lives to preserve democracy….
You know, instead of using idiotic war metaphors to describe a big-league bullpen getting strafed and cannonaded.
Now that I’ve wasted your time and mine in explaining my decision – which was unnecessary – let’s study the 2026 Cardinals as they inch to the one-third mark of their regular-season schedule.
Overall State of the Redbirds: Good! The Cardinals have their share of problems and concerns, which in turn creates anxiety and stress. But the same stuff can be said about all 30 MLB teams. At 29-23, the Cardinals went to work Tuesday with a .558 winning percentage that ranked 8th overall and 5th in the National League.
Given the low preseason expectations and the national ridicule that came with it, the Cardinals are way ahead of the game, outperforming eight teams that rank in the top 11 for payroll size: Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, Tigers, Astros and Giants.
As of Tuesday morning, the Cardinals were perched nicely at the NL’s second wild-card spot. Not bad for the youngest team in the majors that ranks 29th among 30 MLB teams in the active-cash, 26-player payroll at $46.4 million.
Any Cardinals in the Award Race? Long way to go and all of the other polite disclaimers, but as we near the end of May, three names continue to receive mentions:
+ Jordan Walker, NL MVP candidate.
+ JJ Wetherholt, NL Rookie of the Year candidate. And JJ is building a strong (if early) case for Gold Glove consideration at second base.
+ Oli Marmol is in the race for NL Manager of the Year and has been repeatedly praised by national baseball pundits.
It’s a little early for Silver Slugger or Gold Glove chatter, but shortstop Masyn Winn will be in the conversation – even though his early-season defense isn’t up to his usual standards.
Recent Trends: The Cards went 18-13 (.580) during the opening month and haven’t been as robust in May, taking their 11-10 record (.523) into Tuesday’s game at Milwaukee. Since winning the first two games of a four-game set at San Diego, the Cardinals are 5-8 – including a 1-4 mark in their last five competitions. The fellers have two games left at Milwaukee before coming home for a weekend series against the Cubs.
Playoff Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon, FanGraphs gave the Cardinals a 27.6 percent probability of reaching the postseason. That ranks ninth among NL playoff hopefuls.
MOST VALUABLE CARDINAL
Jordan Walker. Let us cite several reasons:
1. Walker leads St. Louis in Wins Above Replacement, home runs, RBIs, runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles, OPS, wRC+, OPS+, Isolated Power, wOBA. Pretty much a clean sweep. Walker and Victor Scott are tied for the team lead with seven stolen bases.
2. Among NL hitters, Walker ranks 2nd in wRC+, 2nd in slugging (.585), 2nd in homers (15), second in Isolated Power (.287), tied for second in OPS+, tied for 2nd in total bases (114) and is 3rd in OPS (.952), 4th in RBIs (42) and is tied for fifth in runs scored.
3. Using wRC+ as our guide, Walker is the best right-handed hitter in the majors at the moment. Walker is 68 percent above league average offensively which puts him at nine percent above the Yankees’ Aaron Judge.
4. How much has Walker improved this season compared to his combined 2024-2025 numbers? I’m happy to break it down for you:
* wRC: up by 147 percent.
* batting average: up 41%
* onbase percentage: up 36%
* slugging percentage, up 80.6%
* OPS, up 60%
5. Walker averaged only 5.5 homers per season across 2024-25. He’s nearly tripled that with his 15 homers in just 51 games. And if you look at “clutch” hitting, Walker leads the Cardinals in Win Probability Added in higher-leverage situations.
CARDINALS ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
JJ Wetherholt, of course. What, you were expecting Matt Pushard? Yeah, JJ has scuffled some in May, but his quality always reemerges after a brief slump. He’s just too smart – and talented – to remain stuck in extensive droughts. And he’s having a stellar season defensively.
— Wetherholt leads the Cardinals in Win Probability Added this season.
— Among NL rookies with at least 150 plate appearances, JJ leads in WAR (2.1), onbase percentage (.359) and runs scored. He’s 2nd with nine home runs and with a wRC+ that puts him 21 percent above league average offensively. He also ranks 3rd among NL rookies in OPS, slugging percentage, and walks.
— Wetherholt plays outstanding defense. Among all MLB defenders – any position – JJ is currently tied for third with 8 Outs Above Average, is third in Fielding Run Value, and is 4th with 8 defensive runs saved.
GETTING BETTER
The starting pitching and bullpen.
— Starting pitching: Over the first month the rotation ERA was 4.46 which ranked 23rd. So far in May, the starters have a 3.59 ERA that ranks 10th overall.
— The rotation had a quality-start percentage of 29% during the first month but that increased to 47.6% over the first 21 games in May.
— The starting-pitcher strikeout rate (18.8%) was the worst in the majors for March-April. But in May, that strikeout rate is 21.7%, which ranks 15th overall. That’s progress.
— As for the bullpen: 5.15 ERA during the first month (25th overall), and a 3.21 ERA in May (12th overall.) The relievers’ collective strikeout rate (22.1%) is up by three percent from the opening month.
— A tip o’ the cap to Andre Pallante, who has a solid 3.76 ERA. But the metrics indicate that Pallante has been a little unlucky. Because his expected ERA (3.72) is 21st among the 55 NL starters that have at least 55 innings this season. What’s so special about that? Well, Pallante was flat-out terrible in 2025 and he’s definitely improved in ‘26. That warrants a positive mention.
Final comment: The St. Louis starters and relievers have plenty of vulnerability in the form of opponents’ hard-hit rate and other indicators. And that’s still a threat to their general safety and the Cardinals’ quest to win and chase a postseason spot.
GETTING WORSE
— After averaging 5.0 runs per game during the opening month (7th overall) the Cards are 25th in May with their average of 3.7 runs per contest.
— This month the Cardinals have been held to three runs or fewer in more than half their games (11 times) and haven’t scored more than two runs in 10 games.
— Because of an inconsistent offense that has faded in too many May games, the Redbirds have lost four times this month when their pitchers have allowed exactly two, three or four runs in a game
— This month the Cardinals are batting .213 with runners in scoring position which explains why they rank 23rd overall in runs scored in RISP situations.
PROBLEM: IMBALANCED LINEUP
This one is kind of wild.
The Cardinals usual lineup, in order, goes JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker at 1-2-3-4 on the card.
At 32 percent above league average offensively (per wRC+), that St. Louis row of 1-2-3-4 hitters is the best of any National League team, and second to the Yankees overall. In the NL rankings the St. Louis 1-2-3-4 hit squad ranks second in batting average (.263), first in on-base percentage (.360), second in slugging (.449), second in OPS (.809), fifth in homers (35), fourth in RBIs (135), fifth for lowest strikeout rate, and fifth for highest walk rate. This is all very impressive.
Now, for the other side … the down side.
The Cardinals 5-6-7-8-9 lineup spots are usually filled (in order) by Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, Pedro Pages and Victor Scott. (Though Church was placed on the IL a few days ago.
OK, now. Let’s take a look at how that’s working out for the 5-6-7-8-9 places in the lineup. The quick answer: uh, not so good.
Per wRC+, those spots collectively are 23 percent below league average offensively, which ranks 13th in the NL and 28th overall. I was stunned to learn this wasn’t the worst 5-6-7-8-9 lineup sequence in the majors.
As for the NL rankings this St. Louis row – a death row for an offense – ranks 14th among 15 teams batting average (.218), 13th in OBP (.283), 13th in slugging (.334) and last in OPS (.618).
Specifically, in May, the 5-6-7-8-9 alignment has a horrendous slash line of .202/.268/.286 and a .555 OPS. This forlorn fivesome is collectively 39 percent below league average offensively in May.
And it gets worse: in May this 5-6-7-8-9 setup has 10 hits in 90 at-bats when hitting with runners in scoring position. That’s a sad little .111 batting average.
So to sum it up, kids:
The Cardinals have the NL’s best offense in the top four spots of their lineup … and the NL’s worst offense (per OPS) in spots 5-6-7-8-9. And you wonder why the Cards offense has stalled out so many times in May?
Thanks for reading.
-Bernie
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Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.