In Thursday’s Part One, I presented a highly detailed report on what’s gone wrong for the St. Louis offense in May.
Hey, maybe the STL offense will get well against the Cubs this weekend.
Wouldn’t that be nice?
I was pleased to see the Friday news: the Cardinals have promoted left fielder Nelson Velasquez and catcher-DH Jimmy Crooks from Triple A Memphis, with infielder Cesar Prieto and catcher Yohel Pozo going the other way, and down to Memphis.
(Joshua Baez next, please!)
There’s plenty of ball remaining on the schedule, and I want to look at different types of Cardinal hitters to reset expectations.
– Guys who have been shorted by bad luck and deserve better results.
– Guys with inherent flaws that will likely limit their offense.
– The Poor Contact guys.
– The lineup dead zone.
– What to expect from Lars Nootbaar.
– Ivan Herrera’s HR power (where is it?)
– Masyn Winn: is there more offensively?
THE UNLUCKY ONES
This offers some hope/optimism of an upturn in results. These hitters are actually finding the barrel and connecting on hard-hit shots, but the results don’t show up in the box score.
Alec Burleson: He’s a good hitter for sure. But his underlying metrics suggest that we can expect bigger and better offensive numbers. For example, Burly’s expected wOBA (.382) ranks in the 89th percentile, so that bodes well for the rest of the season.
Through Thursday, May his surface stats were impressive —slashing .282/.351/.447 with a .798 OPS and 130 OPS+ (30% above league average offensively. But there is a substantial gap between his actual production and what he should be producing.
Burly doesn’t strike out much, and he squares up pitches with authority when making contact.
Burleson ranks in the 89th percentile or higher in both expected batting average (xBA) and xwOBA. Hitters with that specific profile are All-Star caliber.
Burly’s expected slugging percentage (.534) is nearly 90 points higher than his actual slugging (.447).
What can he improve? Burleson’s launch angle sweet-spot % is 33.9% (52nd percentile). He hits the ball hard (47.6% hard-hit rate) but drills it on the ground a little too often. If Burly can elevate those hard-hit balls even with better frequency, his actual slug will catch up to his expected slug.
Nolan Gorman: I know people don’t want to hear this, but Gorman is being suppressed by (legal) defensive shifts and lousy batted-ball luck. He has a 44.9% hard-hit rate, but that’s not translating into more positive results. Gorman’s .383 xSLG is forty points higher than his actual .343 SLG, and his .299 xwOBA outpaces his .287 wOBA. The contact he is making deserves a slightly better fate. But the foundation of hope has shifted. His offensive profile was built on elite-level damage that justified his flaws with swing-and-miss. His damage quotient is low, and that makes those whiff swings more difficult to excuse.
That said, the reports at Baseball Savant tell us that Gorman is doing fine with his walk rate, and his chase rate on pitches out of the zone is in the 43rd percentile — closer to league average. He’s doing a better job of recognizing pitches outside the zone, and that should help if he can keep that up. Gorman also has a launch-angle sweet spot percentage of 36.7%, so he’s not pounding the grass and dirt with too many ground balls.
Other down-side entries: Gorman’s barrel rate has continued to drop over the last two-plus seasons, and that decline is significant. There are too many whiff-swings – he’s in the bottom 4 percent – and not enough consistency with elite contact.
As usual, Gorman is a frustrating puzzle to work on. There’s an obvious need for better contact and more barrels. I can’t fake optimism here.
THE POOR CONTACT CREW
Luck isn’t a factor here. You can't blame bad luck when the bat isn't striking the ball with authority.
Nathan Church: His hard-hit rate is sitting at a dull 33%, which results in a mediocre (at best) expected wOBA of just .297.
Pedro Pagés: Pagés has 34.9% hard-hit rate and 7% barrel rate. His .273 wOBA virtually matches his .275 xwOBA. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to expect better results.
José Fermín: Fermín is actually overperforming his underlying metrics. His wOBA is .292, but his xwOBA is a cellar-dwelling .249, pushed down by an abysmal 2.0% barrel rate and 32.% hard-hit Rate.
BOTTOM-LINEUP FAILURE
Victor Scott, OBP drag: speed, yes. But speed that doesn’t get to first base with any regularity. Scott is towing a 51 wRC+ – 49 percent league average offensively – and a terrible .259 onbase percentage.
This means he’s generating offense at roughly half the rate of an average major-league hitter. And that neutralizes his speed, because Scott can’t put it into play enough to make a meaningful difference.
When Pagés and Scott are in the starting nine together, the bottom third of the order is a dead zone. Teammates are left on base. The lineup rarely turns over with men on base to set up run-scoring opps for JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Burleson, etc.
Pages and Scott may save some runs with their defense – but offensively they get in the team’s way for creating offense.
THE PARADOX: IVAN HERRERA
Hey, don’t let that lead-in cause you to think I’m down on Herrera. I’m way up on Herrera. He’s a wonderful hitter who works his at-bats with finesse, draws a lot of walks, and has a fantastic onbase percentage of .390. Overall Herrera is 37 percent above league average offensively. He’s one of the better right-handed hitters in the bigs.
That said … for a skilled hitter, Herrera’s .423 slugging percentage seems light – as does his six home runs. He has the same number of home runs as Gorman, and only one more homer than Church.
So what’s up? This is a classic disconnect between raw power and swing mechanics. Herrera has the physical strength, but his swing path drives the ball into the ground – instead of launching it over the outfield wall.
Herrera has above-average bat speed. He makes hard contact (42.6%). He’s impressively disciplined. But there’s a two-factor problem working against him and muffling his power.
He (1) he rarely squares up the ball, and (2) his launch-angle sweet spot ranks among the bottom 28 percent of hitters. That’s why he has a glaring 49.4 percent ground ball rate. That’s why we see him pop up too many times.
To strike a home run, a batter needs to optimize a combination of exit velocity and a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees. Herrera’s swing doesn’t go through that window with sufficient regularity, so this wastes his high-charged exit velocities on hard grounders, low line drives, and pop-ups.
A friend of mine provided a simulator that shows the desirable – and undesirable – launch angles for a power swing. It’s interesting. A 104 mph exit velocity at 5 degrees is just another hard-hit grounder to the shortstop, but at 25 degrees, it's a no-doubt big fly.
The takeaway? Until Herrera tweaks his swing mechanics to generate more natural loft and stay in that 8-to-32 degree sweet spot, his home-run totals will not match his imposing physical strength.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM ‘NOOT’
Cards left fielder Lars Nootbaar will return soon from his injury rehab assignment, completing a lengthy and challenging process that began with double-heel surgery after the 2025 season.
Here’s the hope, as one Cards insider told me: me: Nootbaar’s return will alleviate multiple problems at once – provided that his foundation, his base, was fixed by the surgeries. But if all is well, Noot can be an OBP booster shot, and the Cardinals definitely need it.
Even in his injury-impacted 2025, a hurting Nootbaar still managed a .325 OBP. From 2024, Nootbaar settled into an area of performing about 14 percent to 18 percent above league average offensively, and gave the Cards doses of power. On the surface, left-swinging Noot is a good fit for the No. 5 or No. 6 spot in the lineup, especially against righty pitchers.
In 2024, Nootbaar deserved to have much better “official” numbers but didn’t catch many breaks. But looking back on it, Nootbaar did so many things extremely well at the plate:
* He was in the top 21 percent of MLB hitters in expected slugging percentage, and in the top 24% in expected batting average.
* His hard-hit rate (49.5%) was in the top 9% of MLB hitters.
* His walk rate was in the top 2%. His discipline – chasing pitches out of the zone – was in the top 1% of the league.
* His expected wOBA was in the top 10 percent.
If Nootbaar can return to that form – or close to it – the Cards will benefit in a couple of different ways: He’ll improve their offense, emerge as a coveted trade piece, and give Bloom the chance to cash in at the trade deadline. If a team acquires Nootbaar, they’d have him under contract through 2027.
MASYN WINN: WHAT’S THE UPSIDE?
He’s off to a very disappointing start offensively; going into the weekend Winn was slashing .230/.309/.315 for a .623 OPS. His adjusted OPS was 18% below league average offensively. Of course Winn is an asset defensively at shortstop – though hasn’t quite reached his usual form so far. I hope that he isn’t being bothered by left-knee trouble.
Winn was slightly above average offensively in 2024, but the power potential was on display with his 32 doubles, five triples and 15 home runs. That’s 52 extra-base hits! But Winn’s XBH total dropped to 36 in 2025, and his overall offense came in at 9% below league average. The deterioration is continuing early in 2026.
Winn’s .285 wOBA isn’t much to look at. He doesn’t strike out a lot, doesn’t chase many offerings out of the strike zone. His walk rate isn’t great (just OK), so other than the solid plate discipline, I’m not sure what he’s supposed to build on. I say that with respect, but his Statcast profile is troubling.
Winn is way down there among MLB hitters in bat speed (slow), barrel rate, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage, and overall Batting Run Value. And with 1 home run and a poor slugging percentage, Winn’s sparse power is glaring. There’s just too much soft contact, and too many ground balls (45.7%).
This is preventing Winn from raising his game offensively: (1) his 69.9 mph average bat speed is in the bottom 18 percent, and (2) his 86.8 mph average exit velocity is among the lowest 13%.
But as one batting coach with MLB experience told me: Winn can adapt to a modified style of hitting, and become a different type of hitter.
I asked: what do you mean?
Answer: “Look at the Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan model. Players who are in the bottom quartile for bat speed and exit velocity can make a difference offensively by doing three things exceptionally well.”
And what are the three things?
The coach said: “First, refusing to chase pitches, which Winn is already good at. Second, when they swing, the contact rate must be on the higher end, and Winn is above average in that area. He has good bat-to-ball skills. Third, maximize contact quality. You don’t need a high exit velo if you’re hitting the ball consistently at an optimal launch angle.”
The coach pointed out that Winn is around league average, maybe slightly below that, in his squared-up rate and sweet-spot launch angle.
“He needs to hit more line drives,” the coach said. “For Winn, who runs well, a line drive hit at 87, 88 mph into the gap is a double. That’s preferable to a harder-hit ground ball to the third baseman or shortstop. That’s an out.
“This is a lot like what so many of the Tampa Bay hitters are doing this season. They don’t hit the ball hard, but they have good swings and good contact rates and the bat control that helps them to get the ball into the openings left there by the defense.”
So Winn can become a “hit ‘em where they ain’t” hitter?
“With his bat control, yes,” the coach said.
That’s a wrap for today. I ran out of time here, and couldn’t provide a more detailed look-ahead to what Crooks and Velasquez can do for the Cardinals.
But for now …
Crooks: left-side bat, good at drawing walks, strong power vs. right-handed pitchers, has gotten better against offspeed and breaking pitches, not good vs. lefty pitchers, and has to make better swing decisions to do well in the majors. That was a problem for him at Triple A this season but Crooks did show improvement in this area in his final few weeks at Memphis.
I applaud Chaim Bloom for promoting Crooks even though it’s obvious that Oli Marmol is a Pages loyalist. And Pages probably won’t be catching that much. But as is the case with all modern managers, Marmol understands that the front office sets the roster, and has direct input on lineup decisions.
Velazquez: a right-handed hitter with legit power who went to Mexico for a while, away from the pressure, to focus on fixing his plate discipline. And he became a dead-pull hitter as part of his new and improved approach. When Velázquez is on point, he is a dangerous power source, but if he’s off form, the severe whiff-swing problems makes his power irrelevant. He had a terrific spring training for the Cardinals, but didn’t make the 26-man roster. After a slow start at Memphis, he rebounded to earn a shot with the Cardinals. When “V” is right, his underlying statcast profile sits at around a 45% pull rate and 34% fly-ball rate.
At his best, with the 2023 Cubs and Royals, Velasquez cranked 17 home runs in 53 games. And I love this stat: an absurd 44.7% of his hits were home runs – 17 homers on 38 total hits. That berserk rate was right there with what we saw from Mark McGwire in 2000, and Joey Gallo in 2017. Here’s what to keep an eye on with Velazquez: when his power-ball show faded out, a lot had to do with a strike-zone contract rate that was nearly 10 percent below league average. In other words: he had too many swings-misses on pitches over the heart of the plate … the so-called “meatballs.”
Thanks for reading and have a wonderful weekend!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.