Let’s get after it. The Cardinals are taking a rest today before resuming their unrelenting mission to wrest victories from opponents. Suggested theme song: 'Till I Collapse.
Fueled by five comeback wins and a 3-0 record in one-run, jagged-edge outcomes, the Cardinals are an early surprise in the very early days of the 2026 season. Their record is 7-5. Their purpose is passionate.
Did anyone tell these men they were supposed to roll over and play dead like good little rebuilding doggies? Watch out. They bite. This pack of hounds may eat through their own chains, break out of the kennel and escape the confinement of last place in the NL Central.
Here is my list of developments – delights and disappointments – that I did not expect from the 2026 Cardinals.
Just a reminder because there must always be a reminder for those who oddly assume that no one else in the universe knows each club’s schedule is fully packed with 162 games.
The season is nascent. The season is embryonic. The season is larvae. It is an old Cat Stevens song (“Morning Has Broken.”) The season must be sipped, not chugged. I’ll shut up now.
1. I did not expect the Cardinals to win three of their first four series. But look at these fellers, standing with the Dodgers, Yankees and Reds as one of only four teams to do it.
2. I did not expect the Cardinals to be 7-5 with a .583 winning percentage after trading Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado.
3. I did not expect the teams that acquired those four Cardinals to have a combined 13-24 record for a collective .378 winning percentage. Weren’t the Red Sox (4-8), Mariners (4-9) and Diamondbacks (6-6) supposed to be improved or something?
4. On this afternoon of April 9, I did not expect the Cardinals to have a record that glows above some of the teams down below … that are doing worse than the Cardinals. The Cubs, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, Phillies, Astros, Tigers, Orioles, Giants and Rays.
5. I did not expect Jordan Walker to become Aaron Judge, Mark McGwire, Dave Winfield or Giancarlo Stanton in about 15 minutes. Well, he obviously isn’t there with those guys – he’s still a lad, and still learning. But we’ve seen what he can do – and the damage is massive. Walker went from being close to a colossal failure to becoming a home-run hitting colossus.
Here’s what I’m talking about:
Rate of home runs hit per 100 at-bats:
* 2024-2025 seasons: 2.09
* 2026 season: 11.36
I am also referring to this: through Wednesday, among 172 MLB hitters that had at least 172 plate appearances, only one man had put together this combination of stats:
– .295 batting average or higher.
– 5 home runs
– 12 RBIs or more
– 10 or more runs scored
– .682 slugging pct or higher
– 1.000 OPS or higher
That one man?
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals.
And the scary thing for opposing pitchers? Now that Walker has figured out how to load his swing at an ideal attack angle for blasting fly balls, just wait until he crosses over into the next frontier: pulling those fly balls. It’s something he just doesn’t do enough. Walker is waiting for the pitch to travel deep into his hitting tunnel. That’s definitely helped him because his lightning-fast bat speed gives him the luxury of waiting before making a swing decision. Why? Because he wants to get a better ID on the incoming pitch. But when Jordan starts getting out in front of these pullable pitches to meet them with full-on violence … watch out. Problem is, his pulled fly-ball rate is one of the lowest in the majors. So as crazy as it sounds, Walker can do better. Maybe even a lot better. Walker turns 24 years old on May 22.
6. I did not expect Walker to be the most powerful right-handed hitter in the majors. Even though it's the O’ Dark Thirty stage of the season. But among RH batters that had 40+ plate appearances through Wednesday, Walker was No. 1 in Isolated Power (.386), tied for first in homers (5) and No. 2 in slugging percentage (.682.)
7. I didn’t expect the Cardinals to rank 6th in MLB in average runs per game at 5.17. But that’s where they were Wednesday after clinching a series win at Washington.
8. Effective small ball? Resourceful run manufacturing? Yes! I didn’t expect the Cardinals to be so efficient and successful in this style of attack. But they are doing it – just as manager Oli Marmol told us (many times!) over multiple months that this was the plan for the new new campaign. He wasn’t bullspitting.
– St. Louis has the best baserunning in baseball according to the FanGraphs metrics.
– The Cardinals lead the majors in extra-bases taken while trying to advance on non forceouts.
– They are No. 1 in the majors for most productive outs.
– They’re No. 2 in sac bunts, and No. 6 in sac flies.
– They’ve dramatically improved in their ability to score a runner from third with less than two outs. And the same goes for their skill in moving a runner on second to third base with no outs.
– The Cards have scored 23.7 percent of their runs this season when the runner scoots home without the benefit of a base hit. That ranks second in the majors. They’ve plated 14 of their 59 runs with a mix that includes ground-ball outs, sac flies, sac bunts, a bases-loaded walk, a bases-loaded hit by pitch, an error or perhaps a wild pitch or passed ball. Last season the Cardinals scored only 12 percent of their runs this way. In 2025, the Cardinals relied on home runs to score 36% of their runs; early this year that rate is 30% on homers. And the Cardinals have scored 46 of their runs on standard hits (singles, doubles, triples.) The small-ball manufacturing plant is grinding out enough runs to make a difference. Kudos to Oli Marmol for following through on his planned strategy to set up more ways to score runs.
9. I didn’t expect Dustin May to get pummeled in his first two starts for the Cardinals. But I do expect he’ll get better; without drowning you in numbers, I’ll just say that the underlying metrics are fairly positive relative to his 15.95 ERA.
10. I didn’t expect Michael McGreevy to have a 2.16 ERA in three starts. Will it last? The analytical community is skeptical.
11. I didn’t expect reliever Matt Svanson to get knocked around over the first two weeks. But I do expect a turnaround to happen soon.
12. I didn’t expect right-handed George Soriano to emerge as an increasingly important and effective setup reliever. What a great trade pickup by Chaim Bloom. And great advanced scouting by the front office for knowing that the addition of the “gyro” slider would turn the talented Soriano into a formidable reliever. His changeup is ridiculously good.
13. I didn’t expect the Cardinal hitters to turn up their walk rate. But this was also part of the plan, the modified strategy. After ranking 24th in walk rate (7.8%) over the past two seasons (combined), the Cardinals’ 11.3% rate is No. 5 in the majors so far in 2026. The lineup has five guys with walk rates higher than 10 percent: Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, and Jordan Walker. The walk-a-thon action has raised the team on-base percentage to .324.
14. I didn’t expect to see Ivan Herrera with a .195 average, .268 slugging percentage and no home runs in his first 59 plate appearances.
15. I didn’t expect to see JJ Wetherholt play such exceptional defense at second base. I thought JJ would do a good job, but he’s doing a great job. He’s tied for the lead among MLB second basemen in Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average.
16. I didn’t expect to see the St. Louis pitching staff have the worst strikeout rate (15.2%) in the majors. Their starting pitchers (14.1%) are 30th (last.) Their bullpen (16.5%) is slightly better, ranking 29th. As you probably could have guessed, no MLB pitching staff has allowed more batted-ball events (355) than St. Louis. The Cards play terrific defense, but it’s a tremendous liability to have a full set of arms that, collectively, can’t miss bats. As a contingent, Redbird pitchers have the worst swing-miss rate (7.6%) in the majors. Which leads to the highest overall contact rate (83.2%) against a MLB pitching staff – and a preposterously high 90.4% strike-zone contact rate by opposing hitters. No staff has done worse in this area. Not. Even. Close.
17. I didn’t expect to see Masyn Winn perform so poorly offensively. The numbers are horrible and worrisome. Among 186 MLB hitters, Winn ranks 168th in batting average (.154), 172nd in slugging percentage (.205), 173rd in hard-hit rate (25.8%), 146th in barrel rate (3.2%. Per wRC+, Winn’s overall performance is a glaring 53% below league average offensively. His overall Batting Run Value is in the bottom 14% of the league’s hitters. Winn’s slow bat speed is a major factor.
18. Third base? Wow. This one got by me, at least until now. I didn’t expect to see such a surprisingly high level of offense being generated at the third-base position early on. Nolan Gorman and Ramon Urias – when being used as third basemen – have combined for a .302 average, .340 OBP, and .628 slug. The wRC+ at the position is 64 percent above league average offensively – that’s No. 1 in the NL and 3rd overall.
A side note on Gorman: in his 27 plate appearances when used as a third baseman, the left-handed slugger has batted .348 with a 1.016 OPS, two home runs and seven RBIs.
Marmol also likes to use Gorman at DH … and for whatever reason Gorman’s DH numbers early this year are awful. That’s the opposite of last season. Gorman had outstanding stats as a DH in 2025. Weird.
Which brings me to …
19. I didn’t expect to see such loathsome offense at the DH spot. It’s hideous. There is a severe shortage of offense from the STL designated hitter time-share. The only positive thing is a swell walk rate. Otherwise? Just embarrassing. Herrera, Gorman and Yohel Pozo have combined for a .136 average, .291 OBP, .159 slug, .450 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 57 percent below league average offensively. Hey, can the pitchers hit?
20. I didn’t expect to see such a scarcity of offense from the left-field position. When used as left fielders, Nathan Church and Thomas Saggese have combined for a .200 average, .494 OPS, 29% strikeout rate, no homers and three RBIs. Their collective wRC+ is a poor 54 percent below league average offensively.
That said, Saggese has definitely perked up. In 21 plate appearances as a left fielder, Saggese has a .316 average and a wRC+ that’s 33 percent above league average. Church had a big two-run homer in the team’s comeback win at Washington on Tuesday – but he was in the game as a center fielder. When used in left field Church has hit .125 with a wRC+ that’s 116 percent below league average offensively … and that isn’t a typo.
OUT OF WORDS
Thanks for reading, thanks for tolerating my piles of stats, and I'm sorry for any typos …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.