THE REDBIRD REVIEW
The Cardinals took a 50-45 record into the 2026 All-Star break and were just a game out of the National League’s No. 3 wild-card spot. FanGraphs has a postseason probability of 31.1 percent for the Redbirds.
Last season, at 95 games into the schedule, the 2025 Cardinals weren’t quite at the All-Star break. But they had played the same number of games and had an identical 50-45 record and a 27.9% chance of qualifying for the postseason.
Fans and media tend to use the identical 50-45 records as a cautionary tale. The 2025 Cardinals were in pretty good shape after the first 95 games but flopped to a 28-39 record after that. STL finished 78-84 and out of the playoffs for the third straight year: the implied message: the 2026 team could have a similar collapse, so let’s try to keep that in mind.
I don’t disagree with the premise. But I do think there are some areas of the 2026 Cardinals that make them a more solid candidate to finish with a winning record and have a better angle to reach the postseason.
I’ll explain why I think the 2026 Cardinals are more capable than the 2025 Cards. Before I get to that, three things up front:
— The 2025 Cardinals had a strong bullpen, even after trading Phil Maton and Ryan Helsley at the deadline. I don’t believe the 2026 bullpen is nearly as solid and dependable. The ‘26 reliever set is more vulnerable and has depth-related issues.
— An obvious variable is the 2026 trade deadline and Chaim Bloom’s approach. The Cards could move outfielder Lars Nootbaar, starting pitcher Dustin May and a couple of relievers. I don’t think Bloom will do any buying in the expensive aisles of the market, but I can see him picking up some inexpensive bandages (via trade) for the bullpen. We’ll see!
— There’s no predicting injuries and the potential impact of losing an important hitter or a pitcher (or two) that have added win probability this season.
Now with the preliminary caveats out of the way, let’s proceed.
Why I Think The 2026 Cardinals Are Different Than the 2025 Version
I’ll cite 11 factors …
1. Chaim Bloom wasn’t in charge in 2025. He is now. Bloom had a meaningful influence at the ‘25 trade deadline, but the final decisions were made by outgoing president of baseball ops John Mozeliak.
2. The 2025 Cardinals did not have JJ Wetherholt, the all-around splendid rookie rookie who currently ranks 5th in the NL among all position players in fWAR. And JJ is the best defensive 2B in the majors.
3. The ‘25 Cardinals did not have the 2026 model of Jordan Walker. Let me turn this over to my personal favorite, the old-timey sportswriter: “In 2025, the lads didn’t have Jordan Walker shinin’ like this—bright as a lantern in a coal mine and twice as liable to startle a pitcher.”
The 2025 Walker: .215 average, .306 slug, .584 OPS, six homers and 41 RBIs in 111 games.
The 2026 Walker: .294 average, .532 slug, .887 OPS, 22 homers and 74 RBIs in 93 games.
As the hokey, old-timey sportswriter would say in conclusion: “For the young Mister Walker, it’s a transformation so bright the grandstand faithful at Sportsman’s Park have to shield their eyes.”
(I’ll let him know Sportsman’s Park is no longer there.)
By the way: what did the old-timey sportswriter say about Jordan Walker defeating Kyle Schwarber in the Home Run Derby? I asked. Here’s what the creative coot sent to my house, via Western Union messenger:
“Why, ladies and gentlemen, Jordan Walker didn’t just win a Home Run Derby — he staged a full‑blown coup right there in Babe Schwarber’s own front parlor. The big fella from St. Louis strode into Philadelphia like a traveling strongman with a medicine‑show grin, and before the hometown faithful could finish their hoagies, he was sending baseballs skyward like telegrams addressed to the Almighty.”
I love the old-timey sportswriter.
4. The 2026 Cardinals definitely have a better starting rotation, ranking 4th in the NL in ERA (4.08) and 5th in FIP (4.08) and 4th in quality starts. In 2025 St. Louis starters ranked 12th in the NL in ERA (4.67), 12th in FIP (4.33) and seventh in quality starts. After the All-Star break the rotation went up in smoke (5.08 ERA) and slacked to 10th in the NL in quality starts.
I’m not saying the 2026 rotation is a recreation of the wonderful but overlooked 2015 St. Louis rotation that had five starters with earned-run averages of 3.40 or lower. (John Lackey, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia.)
But this 2026 group has a pretty firm backbone. Last season? Not so much. Way too many weak links. Heck, even Sonny Gray had a 5.28 ERA over his final 16 starts. I’ll repeat one of my most revealing statistics of 2025: last year the Cardinals had a 31-51 record (doctor!) in games started by Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde and the lesser copy of Andre Pallante. Which means the Redbirds went 47-33 (.588) in games started by all other pitchers.
5. The top of the lineup: The 2026 Cardinal lineup has flaws, but they send a fantastic, formidable row of 1-2-3-4 hitters after opposing pitchers. The primary combination of Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson and Walker have fueled a 1-2-3-4 attack that’s collectively 22 percent above league average offensively per wRC+.
Last season’s 1-2-3-4 setup was barely above league average offensively and ranked 28th in homers, 24th in slugging and 22nd in OPS.
This year’s first four are kicking it up with top 11 rankings in batting average, OBP, slug and OPS. And the front four is vastly superior to last season’s group in performance with runners in scoring position.
Since Lars Nootbaar returned in early June, we can stretch the first four out and make it the first five lineup spots. And during this time, the Cards’ top five lineup spots collectively rank 10th overall in wRC+ at 19 percent above league average offensively.
6. The 2026 Cardinals are equipped with a stronger bench. Not going to slap you with more stats. But an expanded role for Jose Fermin, the right-handed platoon power of Nelson Velazquez and the versatility of Bryan Torres have given manager Oli Marmol several more effective options than he had last season. And then there’s corner infielder Blaze Jordan. While he’s cooled down overall since being promoted from Triple A Memphis, Jordan has it .429 with a 1.027 OPS, four sac flys and 14 RBIs with runners in scoring position. He’s also been exceptional batting with men on base and in two-out RISP scenarios.
7. The 2026 Cardinals are better than you may think against quality teams. Yep, the Cards have been embarrassed by the Brewers, losing eight of 10 to their first-place division rivals. However …
+ When the Cardinals play someone other than the Brewers this season they’re 48-37 (.565).
+ They are a combined 13-5 against their other three NL Central foes: Cubs, Pirates and Reds.
+ And this is really something: when four opponents currently ranked among the top five in MLB for best winning percentage – Dodgers, Rays, Braves and Cubs – the feisty Redbirds are a robust 12-6 (.667) against the Dodgers, Rays, Braves and Cubs. And – impressively – the Birds are undefeated (6-0) in the six series played against the Cubs, Braves, Rays and Dodgers.
8. Knock on wood … but as a team the 2026 Cardinals are healthier than the ‘25 team. At least so far. It’s easy to forget how many injuries dogged the 2025 Cardinals in the second half of the season. Injuries that collectively led to many days missed. The pertinent examples are Brendan Donovan, Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, and Victor Scott. Herrera had two IL stays but both occurred before the All-Star break.
9. The Cards performance department and intel operation is superior to what they had in 2025. That’s because of Bloom’s move into the top front office spot, the people he’s brought in, and the generous increase in technology and resources. And the coaching staff has largely been intact for a third consecutive season, and that continuity matters. Manager Oli Marmol and his staff are totally in sync with the players and have gotten a complete buy-in from the roster.
10. This is potentially a biggie. The Cardinals are much better on the road this season, going 24-19 (.558) compared to last year’s gross 34-47 (.420) mark. Why is this so notable? After the break the Redbirds will have 38 road games and 29 home games. That said, it’s imperative for the Cardinals to have a winning record at home during the final 2 and ½ months. They’re 26-26 at Busch Stadium so far – primarily because of an offense that’s been stifled by the hitter-hostile environment at their home yard.
11. This ‘26 team, in my opinion, has a lot more resilience than the 2025 Cardinals. Why? Because it’s a young and hungry group that isn’t moody or hung up on receiving special treatment that’s often expected (if not demanded) by veterans. This is – absolutely – more of a team that has a superb inner culture. It’s a close team. That can be valuable during tough times.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.