Hello, and welcome to my new feature here at STL Sports Central: Breakfast with Bernie, which I’ll write in the morning on most weekdays. On this Monday, July 13, I'll offer my view of the Cardinals' season as they head into the All-Star break.
The Cardinals have gone on vacation, because it’s that time of the year: MLB’s annual All-Star break.
Three players didn’t make it to the beach. Right fielder Jordan Walker, closer Riley O’Brien and catcher-DH Ivan Herrera are in Philadelphia for Tuesday’s 2026 All-Star Game. No doubt the fellas are happy to be there. Walker gets a national showcase with a spot in Monday night’s Home Run Derby, but I’d imagine it will be difficult for any contestant to defeat Kyle Schwarber in his home ballpark.
For fans and media, this stage of the summer gives us time to pause and reflect on the first 95 games of the Cardinals’ season. What we liked, what we disliked, surprises, disappointments, what we want to see, what could be up ahead, etc.
Let’s go!
Record: 50-45 for a .526 winning percentage.
Verdict on the Record: Positive, of course. According to the baseball intelligentsia (ahem) the rebuilding-resetting-recharging Cardinals were supposed to be submerged in the murk and the muck by now – on the way to 90+ losses or so. But here we are on the morn’ of July 13, with the Cardinals having consumed just under 59 percent of their schedule, and the boys are tied with another surprise team, the White Sox, for the ninth-best winning percentage among the 30 teams. Can’t be too damn nitpicky about that. This is a team that traded Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado this past offseason. And they're just as good -- and I would say better -- than they were than with those players. And this team is considerably younger in 2026 than it was in '25. They're in playoff contention with one of the lowest 26-man cash payrolls in MLB.
Is it OK to be disappointed about some stuff? Yes, of course. The Cards had a chance to sweep the visiting Atlanta Braves over the weekend but flunked again. This season the Cards have had 10 opportunities to get out the brooms and complete the sweep. But they are 3-7 in the final game of a sweepable series. In their last seven shots at securing a sweep, the Cardinals are 1-6. Renewal-restoration season or not, that stinks. And if the Cardinals are a postseason contender – which the wild-card standings say they are – then they can’t be losing all of these games when a sweep is on the line. Such a waste.
The Positives: It starts with JJ Wetherholt, the rookie leadoff hitter and second baseman, and the fabulous coming-of-age season by right fielder Jordan Walker. It’s an exceptional development to see two of the youngest players on the team perform at such a high level. Wetherholt is 23, and Walker is 24.
On Walker: the big man leads the majors with 74 RBIs and is tied with Shohei Ohtani for 5th in the National League with 22 home runs. J-Walk also ranks 6th in the NL in OPS, sixth in wRC+, and 8th in slugging. Per that wRC+, Walker’s offense is 43 percent above league average offensively. Over his previous two seasons (2024-25) Walker’s offense was 32 percent below league average offensively. One more thing: in Cardinals history, Walker is one of only three hitters to have at least 22 homers, 74 RBIs and 13 stolen bases in their first 93 games of a season. The other two are Rogers Hornsby (1922) and Ray Lankford (1997). That’s not all: Walker is the only Cardinal in franchise history, age 24 or younger, to put together that statistical combination.
On Wetherholt: Defensively he’s the best second baseman in the majors and that’s verified by three different metrics valuations. He’s rated 12th overall among NL players for baserunning effectiveness. His offense is 14 percent above average. His all-around value, 3.5 WAR, is 9th highest overall and 5th in the NL among position players. Among NL rookies Wetherholt leads NL rookies in defensive rating and runs scored, is 2nd in onbase percentage (.356) 2nd in homers (13), third in wRC+, third in OPS, and 4th in slugging and RBIs. JJ also has a huge lead over the other NL rookies in Win Probability Added.
Other team positives are defense (one of the best in the majors), success on the road (8th overall in winning percentage), the hitting of Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera’s outstanding onbase skills, and an underrated starting rotation.
Wait a minute. Underrated starting rotation? Heck, yes. The perception out there is outdated. Baseball pundits continue to list the St. Louis rotation as a “weakness” simply because they fail to pay sufficient attention. Look, I know this group ranks 13th among the 15 NL rotations in strikeout rate, which makes them vulnerable to a significant volume of batted-ball events. This bunch won’t win any Statcast honors. But in terms of making the most of its collective ability, this rotation gets good marks. The strikeout firepower is limited, sure. But to varying degrees, Dustin May, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Matthew Liberatore overcome the low punch-out totals by getting the NL’s second-highest ground-ball rate by a rotation – and allowing the second-lowest home-run rate by an NL rotation. And what’s wrong with the bottom line? The Cards starters rank 4th in the NL with 34 quality starts, 4th with a standard 4.08 ERA, and 5th in Fielding Independent ERA. Does that look like a weakness to you?
Good baseball health. That’s another positive: a low-damage injury total through the first 95 games. Sure, not having outfielder Lars Nootbaar (double heel surgery) available until June 5 was a blow. But let’s keep that in perspective. According to the injury ledger at Baseball Prospectus, the White Sox are the only team in the majors to have fewer days missed because of injuries than the Cardinals. Look at starting pitching. Only one Cardinal starter, Hunter Dobbins, has been on the IL. But that shouldn’t even count because Dobbins was rehabbing a knee injury (requiring surgery) that he suffered last season while pitching for the Red Sox. Now, contrast that to the injury-related carnage with other teams in the NL Central. And I’ll focus on starting pitching. Cubs starting pitchers have collectively missed 403 games (and counting), the Brewers’ starting pitchers have missed 243 days (and counting) and the Reds’ starting pitchers have missed 240 days. The Pirates didn’t have a key starting pitcher, Jared Jones, for 65 days.
OK, what are the concerns? (1) an unreliable bullpen that lacks quality depth, walks too many hitters, and doesn’t strike out enough hitters. (2) a losing record at home. (3) a terrible offense at the run-suppressing Busch Stadium. (4) no clear solution at third base. (5) a steep decline in the team’s record in one-run games. (6) an offense that’s basically average overall (7) the distinct possibility of outfielder Lars Nootbaar, starting pitcher Dustin May and others being dealt before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. I’m sure we can dig up more items for the worry list, but that’s enough for now.
What about STL’s postseason chances? FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 31.6 percent probability of making the October tournament. That’s the seventh-best shot among National League teams behind the Dodgers (100%), Brewers (98.3%), Braves (90.5%), Phillies (86.3%), Cubs (76.3%), Pirates (41.3%), and Marlins (34.3%).
Standings check: The Cards trail the Marlins by one game in the chase for the No. 3 wild-card. They’re two games behind the Phillies for the No. 2 wild card, and 2 and ½ games to the rear of the Cubs, who hold the No. 1 WC ticket. But there’s a lot of close-range traffic behind St. Louis; the Redbirds lead the Pirates by a game, the Diamondbacks by 1 and ½ games, the Padres by 2 and ½ and the Nationals by 3.
Weren’t the Cardinals in a similar spot in 2024 and 2025? Why, yes. They were. For the third consecutive season, the Birds are exactly 50-45 at the 95-game highway marker. In each of the previous two seasons it didn’t go so swell from there. The 2024 Cardinals were 33-34 in their final 67 games, losing 16 of 24 through one damaging stretch. At least they finished with a winning 83-79 record. The ‘25 team faltered to a 28-39 mark during the final 67 games and were a loser (78-84) at the end of the trail. After being a season-high nine games over .500 on June 29 of last season, the Cards went 31-46 over their journey to a 78-84 conclusion.
With that in mind, why should we believe in the 2026 Cardinals? That’s up to you. Skepticism is natural and understandable. This isn’t supposed to be a playoff team, and as we’ve noted there are reasons for concern. But here’s one nugget that should give you a reason to remain upbeat. Granted, the Brewers bullied the Cardinals by winning eight of the first 10 games played between the two division rivals. (With one remaining series, in Milwaukee during the final regular-season weekend.) But against every other team the Redbirds have played this season, their record is 11 games over .500 at 48-37 (.565.)
This is a resilient team: The Cardinals have a nice competitive-character trait. They rebound. They get slapped around and knocked down – and we can always count on them to get back up and start winning again. The Cards’ longest losing streak is four games (twice). Early in the season they lost three in a row and responded by winning five straight. Their first four-game losing streak was followed by six consecutive victories. They reacted to a 4-8 stretch by dashing off a six-game win streak. The most recent four-game losing streak was put away when the Cards won three out of the next four and claimed a second series win over Atlanta in two weeks. This ability to handle adversity is impressive for a squad that has the youngest average age (26.7) among the 30 MLB teams.
An ongoing source of frustration: I’ve talked and written about this a lot, but I do so because it’s such an important factor that could make the difference between making the playoffs – or missing out on the playoffs.
Let’s update.
Road record: 24-19.
Home record: 26-26.
Runs per game, road: 5.32, 2nd in MLB.
Runs per game, home: 3.71, 26th overall and 14th among 15 NL teams.
HRs per road game: 1.33, 11th in MLB.
HRs per home game: 0.98, 26th MLB.
Slash line on the road: .278/.349/.462
Slash line at home: .237/.309/.371
OPS on the road: .749, ranks 6th in MLB
OPS at home: .671, ranks 25th in majors
wRC+ on road: 7 percent above league average offensively. Ranks 5th best in the majors.
wRC+ at home: 10 percent below league average offensively. Ranks 25th in majors.
To bring it home – as in what’s happening at Busch Stadium – these quick stats get to the heart of the matter.
— The Cardinals have scored 4 or fewer runs 35 times in 52 home games. That number (35) of a below-average run total in a home game is the highest in baseball. Meaning the worst in the majors. And when the Cardinals score four or fewer runs in a game at Busch their record is 11-24.
— When the Cardinals score at least 5 runs in a game at Busch, they’re 15-2. But it hasn’t happened enough. Among NL teams the Cardinals are tied for the fewest total (17) of home games with 5+ runs. That also ranks 23rd in the majors.
The home-road disconnect on offense is one of the most important areas to monitor when the Cardinals resume play with a weekend series at Arizona that begins Friday. After the All-Star break the Redbirds will have 38 road games and 29 home games. Given the weak offense at Busch Stadium, that’s probably a positive.
Biggest disappointment: at the All-Star break, the Cardinals rank 19th among the 30 teams in home attendance with an average of 27,607 tickets sold per game. Earlier this season they were ranked 17th in home attendance but have dropped two spots.
The 2025 Cardinals also ranked 19th among 30 clubs in home attendance, but sold about 170 more tickets per home game than they have so far in ‘26. So, yes, the Cardinals are actually selling fewer tickets per home game despite having a young, energetic and hungry team with two new stars – Walker and Wetherholt – and a record that’s tied for No. 9 in the majors.
Are we still a baseball town, or just living on reputation? It’s an interesting question.
Thanks for reading …
— Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Keith Tkachuk, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.