Did you think I’d let the Home Run Derby go by without handicapping Jordan Walker’s chances of pulling off the upset and taking down Philadelphia’s two hometown, home-run, heroes?
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper will have the maximum power-lung backing of the assembled Philly lunatics at Citizen’s Bank Park. They will be surrounded by a massive wolfpack of a howling Philly mob. They’ll have the advantage of taking aim at home runs in their comfortable backyard bullseye. In the Cradle of Liberty, Schwarber and Harper should have enough strength to mangle the Liberty Bell and turn it into a twist tie for a bag of takeout beer and snacks at the neighborhood Wawa.
With the 2026 All-Star Game being held in the City of Brotherly Love – enough with the damn nomenclature – Monday’s HR Derby will be a festive and noisy opening act. Think about a Woodstock for escaped prison inmates.
(I’m kidding! I am a longtime fan of the Philadelphia vibe, and the good and proud people who call it home are only insulted if you don’t insult them.)
This long-drive event with a bat instead of a three wood has become so popular, many fans would rather watch the powerball contest over the usually boring AL vs. NL game. Well, there’s no need to choose one over the other. Just watch both. But you’ll need Netflix to watch J-Walk take his swings.
First, some preliminary advice: In this revised format – with no “shot” clock – a slugger’s consistency over 20 swings is more vital than his raw power. A player most capable of hitting the ball deep on every swing will have the best shot at taking the prize.
Here are the eight candidates, listed in the order of their odds to win and implied winning probability.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies: betting line +310, implied win probability of 23.4%. Why he could win: leads the majors this season with 32 home runs. And since he signed with the Phillies before the 2022 season, “Babe” Schwarber has blasted a home run every 11.4 at-bats at Citizen’s Bank Park. He has experience; this is Schwarber’s third Derby. Hard to detect any weaknesses unless you want to go back to the 2022 HR Derby when Schwarber lost to the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols in the first round.
Junior Caminero, Rays: betting line, +325. Implied win probability of 23.5%. Why he could win: has 28 homers this season. Finished second in last year’s Derby. Has the fastest bad speed (79.9 mph) in the field. Has an average HR distance of 408 feet this season; that’s the third longest among the eight big shooters in this contest. Also: he comes into the All-Star break after homering in six consecutive games.
Munetaka Murakami, White Sox: betting line, +500. Implied win probability, 16.7%. Why he could win: Among the row of bashers in tonight’s lineup, Murakami has the top hard-hit rate, the second-fastest average exit velocity, the top barrel rate, the second-longest average home-run distance (409 feet), the longest average fly ball distance (348 feet), and the best HR/FLY rate, 35%. That means 35% of his fly balls this season have flown over the wall for a home run. The impressive profile aside, this is Murakami’s first appearance in the HR Derby. How will he handle the setting? Will he have a touch of the jitters?
Bryce Harper, Phillies: betting line +525. Implied winning probability, 16%. Why he could win: was the 2018 Derby champ and likes the big stage. At age 33, there isn’t as much pure power left in the musket, but Harper will be jacked up with Red Bull x 20 energy to show off before the adoring home-base loyalists. Do the metrics matter in a HR Derby? Well, maybe. But if you think it does matter, consider this: Harper has the weakest profile among the eight combatants. His 20 home runs on the season are tied for fourth in this group. He has the lowest hard-hit rate, the lowest average exit velo, the lowest HR/FLY rate, the lowest barrel rate, the second-lowest bat speed, and the second-lowest average HR distance (400 feet). But put this aging rebel on the big stage, and watch the ball fly.
Jordan Walker, Cardinals: Betting odds +650. That means if you wager $100 on Walker and he wins, you cash in for $650. And you also get the $100 wager back for a total return of $750. If you bet $10 and he wins, you’ll collect $75 total. Implied win probability: 13.3%. Why he could win: Well, given the horrendous back-to-back campaigns in 2024-25, who in the hell even thought he’d be here? He can be this year’s Cal Raleigh! Walker has 22 home runs for the Redbirds. He has the No. 1 average exit velocity (94.2 mph) in this crowd. But there are challenges. Walker has the second shortest average fly ball distance (324) in this group this season. His average home-run distance, 406 feet, ranks fifth among the eight. He has a terrific fast-swing rate and other metric gems which I’ll get to in a while. This is also his first HR Derby, first All-Star Game, so a minor case of the nerves could be a distraction. I’ll return with more on Walker later.
Jac Caglianone, Royals: betting line +700. Implied win probability 12.5%. Why he could win: even though Caglianone has the fewest bombs (15) of anyone in the competition, he has the longest average home-run distance of 414 feet. His bat speed ranks third in this group. He has the fourth best HR/FLY rate (29.2%) and No. 4 barrel rate in the group. However: his 4.3% home-run rate per plate appearance is the lowest of the eight contenders. And he has the second-lowest “pull” rate among the eight. His father will be serving the pitches. That’s cool. And I assume it will help Jac.
Ben Rice, Yankees: betting line +850. Implied win probability, 10.5%. Why he can win: he’s been on a hitting rampage of late. And then there’s this ballpark. With that, let’s acknowledge the built-in edge the left-handed hitters will carry into this particular missile-launch video game: Rice, Schwarber, Harper, Caglianone and Murakami. They outnumber the three right-handed bats: Walker, Caminero and Willson Contreras. Citizen’s Bank Park is widely considered one of the most favorable parks in the majors for LH power bats. There’s a shallow 369-foot power alley in right-center field. (That’s compared to 374 feet in the left-center alleyway.) According to Baseball Savant data for the 2026 season, the home run park factor for left-handed hitters at this stadium is an elite (and ridiculous?) 115, meaning it yields 15% more home runs for lefties than the average MLB stadium. For right-handed hitters, that factor drops down to 104. And then there’s the right field wall, which is a low and inviting target for a cheapie HR. You can hit a line drive without much loft and … gone! Hitting a home run-down the right-field line or right-center gap does not require elite exit velo. I bring this up because Rice probably has the least amount of raw power in this group, but he thrives in his home playpen at Yankee Stadium, a place that gives LH batters such a preposterous advantage they should change home runs hit in that area into automatic ground-rule doubles. For Rice, hitting at Citizen’s Bank provides all of the comfort of Yankee Stadium.
Willson Contreras, Red Sox: hello, old pal! Betting line +1,300. Implied win probability 7.1%. Why he could win: Contreras has MLB’s third-highest pull rate this season at 54.7%. That will play at Philadelphia’s home-run haven. Contreras also has the third-quickest bat speed among the eight boppers, but for some reason that doesn’t produce a high average exit velocity. (He ranks 7th among the eight.) But I would never count out Contreras. When he’s fired up and feels that he has something to prove – to shut up critics – he’s a bull. And he’s probably the only player in HR Derby history to compete while actually serving an MLB suspension. Willson Contreras: the most interesting man in baseball.
MORE ON JORDAN WALKER
As noted earlier – and I’ll elaborate now – Walker ranks second in this eighth-hitter field in bat speed, average exit velocity, 90th-percentile exit velocity, max exit velocity, and fast-swing rate. He’ll be assisted in this power trip by Kleininger Teran, his regular batting-practice pitcher in St. Louis. But FanGraphs casts a warning of sorts:
“Just 5% of Walker’s batted balls have been pulled fly balls, and even if you also add line drives in there to look for pulled-air percentage, he’s still at the bottom of the field at 15%. He just struggles to get the ball in the air, and it’s hard to win a Derby that way. But it’s not impossible. Just ask Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If Walker does win it all, it will be an unforgettable laser show.”
Then again, some quants see Walker as the “Value Play” in this Derby. His +650 odds would pay off in a big way, and he certainly has the combination of physical strength and metric strengths to be a “live” longshot.
I understand the concerns over his ability to make batted balls fly like airplanes gaining altitude … but here’s another way to look at it: Walker stands in the 100th percentile for bat speed and boasts an elite 51.5% hard-hit rate. He is unlikely to lift towering, picturesque moonshots, into the third deck. If he swings his way into contention and an upset Monday night, it will likely be because of scorching 112-mph line drives that have enough elevation to crash into the left-field seats.
I’ve also researched Walker’s Ideal Contact Rate for the season and it’s the second-best in this gallery of eight. His SLGCON rate of .748 – slugging percentage on contact – is fourth among these eight longballers. Without a clock, Walker can take his time to cherry-pick pitches that are perfect for his damage zone. No need for him to go into a frenzy of hacking. If J-Walk relaxes, he can let his incredible exit velocity do the hard work.
If you want the safe bet, it's Schwarber or one of the other lefty swingers. But if you want the max-velo shooter who can concentrate on taking an efficient approach instead of thrashing away for volume, Walker is certainly worth a throw at the +650 price.
Enjoy the Derby!
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.