When the St. Louis Blues dealt veteran defenseman Justin Faulk to the Detroit Red Wings at the March 6 trade deadline, the headline was straightforward: a Blues squad shipping out salary and experience for Detroit’s 2026 first, San Jose’s 2026 third-rounder, prospect Dmitri Buchelnikov, and defenseman Justin Holl.
Roughly six weeks later, that transaction looks considerably more interesting.
Detroit’s season has officially ended in the Eastern Conference wild-card race, and the first-round pick the Blues received, Detroit’s own 2026 selection, unprotected, has quietly become one of the more intriguing assets in the league. At the time, most projections had Detroit finishing somewhere in the 20s in draft order. The pick looked like a mid-first at best. Detroit’s late-season collapse changed the math entirely.
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is scheduled for May 5 with 16 non-playoff teams will be seeded in reverse order of standings, with two separate draws determining the first and second-overall selections. The governing rule: no team can move up more than 10 spots from its natural position.
Detroit currently sits near the top of the non-playoff standings alongside the New York Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets, with the Washington Capitals in close proximity. That cluster puts the Red Wings roughly in the 13th-to-15th range of reverse-order lottery seeding, meaning their natural draft position would fall somewhere in that same band.
Here is where it gets interesting for St. Louis. If Columbus, the Islanders, and Washington all finish ahead of Detroit in points, the Red Wings slide further down the reverse standings. A team seeded 13th that wins one of the two lottery draws can jump the full 10 allowable spots, to the third overall selection. What was projected as a pick in the mid-20s when the trade was made now carries a ceiling of third overall, however unlikely that outcome remains. That is a significant swing in value by any measure.
The 2026 draft is shaping up as a strong one at the top. NHL Central Scouting’s latest rankings feature a mix of high-upside forwards and blue-line talent with legitimate franchise-caliber potential. Gavin McKenna, a dynamic play-driving winger, sits atop many boards as the presumptive first-overall candidate.
Ivar Stenberg, a consistent producer with high-end skill out of Frölunda, is another name generating significant attention. The defensive class is deep as well, with Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, and Carson Carels all capable of going inside the top eight.
For Blues president of hockey operations Doug Armstrong, the Faulk trade is the latest example of patient asset management paying dividends in unexpected ways. The deal was not flashy. Trading a veteran defenseman for a collection of futures rarely generates much excitement at the deadline. But the return has appreciated considerably, and the pick now represents real upside heading into the lottery.
Final standings lock after games on April 15 and 16. Detroit still has two games remaining playing at Tampa Bay on April 13 and at Florida on April 15, and every remaining result across the bottom of the standings could shift where that Blues-owned pick ultimately lands. What looked like a modest return in March has become one of the more valuable first-rounders still in play.
The lottery draw is May 5.