I hope you’re enjoying the early action in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Duke … almost goes down to Siena … but alas ... did not. Dammit.
I wanted to skip work today and watch every minute of every game via three monitors in my home office, just as any fast-clicking remote-control man would do. But it was not meant to be. A question of duties and dedication.
You see, I have obligations. I’m a typing man. I am a working man. I am a sport-writing man. I am a hollerin' man. I am a drinking man, but not until Saint Louis U tips off against Georgia on Thursday night. And then we will all be Robbie Avila.
I am a stat man. The analytical man, with all the numbers, which makes me a gamblin' man, a man of many seasons, and many angles.
And I have many thoughts.
Which brings me to ...
A LOOK AT MISSOURI vs MIAMI (FL)
Viewing: Friday on truTV, approximate tipoff time at 9:10 pm STL time.
Site: 14th and Clark, Downtown in The Lou, in the House of the Blues.
Records: Miami of the ACC is 25-8 overall and went 13-5 for a third-place finish in the conference. Missouri is 20-12 overall, and went 10-8 in the SEC, finishing 11th.
Ratings: At KenPom, Miami 37th and Mizzou No. 52. At Bart Torvik, it’s Miami at No. 35 and Mizzou at No. 46. In the NCAA NET ratings, it’s a much larger gap: Miami 32nd, Missouri 58th. In the Sagarin ratings, the ratings differential is pretty significant: Miami is Sagarin’s 18th-best team in D1, with Mizzou at No. 54.
Record vs. Q1 & Q2 opponents: Miami 12-8, Mizzou 9-12.
Odds: Miami opened as a 2.5 point favorite, but Mizzou’s “homecourt” advantage and early money on the Tigers pushed that down to Miami by 1.5. It was still Miami at minus 1.5 as of Thursday afternoon. But look out for potential updates.
Stat You Should Know: Coming into this first-round game, the Hurricanes are 8-2 in true road games this season. So if the Enterprise Center is a home-court advantage for the home state Tigers … will it really bother Miami? Miami’s eight true road wins were banked against Power 4 conference opponents Ole Miss, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Boston College, N.C. State, Florida State, and SMU.
Betting Angle: This season Miami is 7-4 overall against the spread vs. opponents that allow an average of 70 to 75 points per game. (Mizzou gives up 75 on average.) But as of late, Miami is 4-1 in their last five vs. teams that yield 70 to 75 points on average.
Trend I: In the last four NCAA tournaments, ACC teams are 37-20 straight up – and also against the spread (65%).
Trend II: SEC teams are on a 22-11 ATS (66.7%) roll vs. ACC teams in the NCAA tourney since 2003.
Trend III: When seeded in the bottom half of the field (No. 9 through No. 14), SEC teams have labored to a 12-30 record (.285) straight up and a 17-23-2 mark against the spread since 2007 (42.5%) Mizzou is the 10 seed.
Trend IV: In the role of pick ‘em or small underdog (up to 4.5-points), ACC teams are currently on a 19-5 run against the spread (79.2%).
Trend V: In an ACC vs. SEC conference NCAA matchup, underdogs are on a 14-4-1 surge (77.8%) against the spread since 2017. Mizzou is the slight underdog.
Trend VI: In the previous 20 NCAA Tournament seasons (2005–2025, excluding 2020), No. 10 seeds have won approximately 39% of their first-round games against No. 7 seeds.
THE OVERVIEW
The selection committee hooked up 10-seed Missouri by setting them up in St. Louis at Enterprise Center for the opening weekend. So much for a neutral-court game; the Tigers will have a larger fan delegation but will the boost be minimal or truly impactful? In their last three excursions to St. Louis, the Tigers lost to Illinois all three times, with two of the hammerings coming by an average margin of 33.5. Yes, technically all three were neutral-court clashes, and part of an intense rivalry series. But it’s not as if Enterprise Center has brought out the best of M-I-Z.
There’s some pressure on Mizzou coach Dennis Gates to have more success in the NCAA Tournament. The coach should be commended for leading the Tigers into the tournament three times in his four seasons in charge of the program; it’s been a long time since the Tigers were a regular presence in March Madness. But after beating Utah State in the first round in 2023, Mizzou got walloped in a 15-point loss to Ivy League Princeton. The Tigers returned to the NCAA Tournament a year ago and was banished from the competition with a 10-point loss to Drake (Missouri Valley Conference) in the first round. Getting smashed by an Ivy League program and a Missouri Valley challenger in your last two NCAA tests was not a good look for Gates and the Tigers.
Miami’s first-year coach, Jai Lucas, has done a fantastic job of lifting the Hurricanes from the rubble of last season’s 7-24 disaster. Taking a program that was 17 games under .500 last season and raising it to 17 games over .500 in your first year is a helluva debut for the former Duke assistant.
Lucas engineered the immediate transformation though the transfer portal, bringing in a talent infusion that included a program-changing haul that featured Tre Donaldson (Michigan), Malik Reneau (Indiana) and Ernest Udeh Jr. (TCU.) And the additions gave Lucas a strong foundation to support the star freshman forward Shelton Henderson. Lucas went with a soft non-conference schedule on purpose wanting to give a reset roster a chance to develop over time before stepping into ACC play to trade punches against a higher tier of competition.
What is Miami’s identity? The Hurricanes are not a part of the three-point shooting mania – and they don’t defend 3s very well (No. 272) either. Miami has good mid-range shooters in Donaldson and Henderson, and leans on big men Reneau and Udeh to control the lane and the glass on both ends. In the ACC, the Canes were viewed as a tenacious team that won’t be outworked. But a team that can’t ring up threes with good frequency offensively and doesn’t deny threes with much resistance … well, that’s vulnerable team. More on that later. But Mizzou can count on a physical game – which is fine because MU has the muscle to go with it.
What is Mizzou’s identity? It’s interesting, because the Tigers have a variety of ways to roll and wear down opponents. On the surface there’s a lot to like including their No. 33 national ranking in effective field goal percentage, their overall offensive efficiency rating that’s just outside the top 50 in the land, a solid three point shooting percentage, a persistent dose of inside strength to pile up points near the basket, the force to repeatedly extend possessions by snatching offensive rebounds, and a hard-edged defense that is strong at the rim. And that Mizzou defense ranks 80th nationally, which is really good, in defensive efficiency.
But just don’t ask about Mizzou’s hideous turnover rate, unreliable free-throw accuracy, and their faulty air defense against three-point bombs.
A marshmallow world non-conference sked created a split between perception and reality. Mizzou also has a Who The Hell Are You, Anyway? thing going on. Are the Tigers the beasts that smash-mouthed to wins over Florida and Kentucky (road), knocked off several top 40 opponents including Vandy, Tennessee, Auburn, Oklahoma and Texas A&M? Or is the squad a collection of paper Tigers that was destroyed in a 43-point loss to Illinois, a 20-point beatdown by Kansas, a crummy loss to a crummy Notre Dame team, a 26-point lashing at Alabama, and late giveaway in a close defeat to Georgia?
Mizzou’s closing stretch – three straight dud losses to Oklahoma, Kentucky and Arkansas – raised the Who The Hell Are You, Anyway? question again.
KEYS TO SUCCESS FOR MIZZOU
1. Deny the glass dominance that Miami wants to establish. Gates can go as big as he wants to in asserting Mizzou’s advantage in length. The MU roster has five trees standing 6-9 or taller. Mark Miller (6-9), Shawn Phillips (7-0) and major contributors who get plenty of playing time. Jevon Porter (6-11) is a valuable role player. Trent Pierce (6-10) and Trent Burns are used on a more limited percentage of possessions – between 12 and 16 percent. Mizzou is the third tallest team in the nation behind Duke and Illinois.
2. Department of the Interior: The Hurricanes have an extremely active, athletic and aggressive presence in the 6-9 Reneau, who averages 18.8 points per game. The 6-11 Udeh is tough. But Missouri is ridiculously tall and can use the height to disrupt. In particular the Mitchell vs. Reneau gladiator battle should be fun to watch. They are bangers of similar size and both average nearly 19 points per game. This game could well be determined in the paint.
2. By forcefully going at the glass, Miami aims to pile up offensive rebounds and create a lot of opportunities for easy second-chance points. And that was the difference for the Hurricanes in more than a few of their ACC wins. The second objective is to draw a lot of fouls. It’s very important for M-I-Z. The Tigers allow an average of around 11 offensive boards per game, and that’s led to an extra 12 to 15 second-chance points for their opponents.
And this area will likely be a substantial part of shaping the outcome in what should be a tight game. As Sports Illustrated notes: “Missouri ranks 214th nationally in defensive rebounding. Against a Miami team that ranks 29th in offensive rebounding and thrives on turning those boards into 20+ second-chance points, this remains the most significant statistical mismatch of their tournament pairing.”
3. Don’t allow Miami to control the pace, which the Hurricanes love to do. Both teams like to play fast to wear out opponents, but Miami goes a little faster. That said, the Tigers have the deeper bench than Miami, ranking 88th nationally in the percentage of minutes from the bench. The Hurricanes are 168th. The fatigue factor might work in MU’s favor.
4. The value of Mizzou making 3s cannot be overstated in this matchup. If we go by the metrics, both of these teams can be shredded by deep shots. Mizzou ranks 272nd in nationally in 3-point shooting percentage allowed; Miami is even worse at No. 330 overall – and 16th in 3% defense among ACC teams. Here’s why this matters so much: when M-I-Z reaches its season standard of making at least 35% of their three-point launches in a game, their record is 14-2. When the Tigers make less than 35% of their threes, they’re 6-10. Some of Mizzou’s coldest three-point shooting games against strong teams on their schedule; the Tigers were collectively 27 for 107 in flinging threes (25.2%) against Alabama, Tennessee, Illinois, Kansas and Arkansas. But the Tigers can’t afford to have terrible shooting accuracy against a Miami defense that’s gotten repeatedly burned by teams shooting treys.
5. Good grief, Mizzou. You gotta make more free throws. In their 12 losses this season, the Tigers made only 59.3 percent of their free throws and missed 98 of them, overall, in the dozen games. The most embarrassing performance at the line came in a one-sided loss to Alabama, with the Tigers making 9 of 26 (34.6%). If this game goes down to the wire and it makes sense for Miami to put Mizzou on the line in the right situation, Coach Lucas won’t have problem identifying three or four Tigers who are shaky at the stripe with the outcome still hanging.
Sampling the opinions: ESPN’s model gives Miami a 55% probability of winning the game, but ESPN’s Jay Bilas is going with a Mizzou upset because of Mitchell’s scoring and the perceived homecourt edge for the Tigers … CBS Sports: picks Mizzou because of their length and defensive strength … noting their length and defensive strength … The Action Network touts M-I-Z as a best bet, believing that the St. Louis crowd will boost the Tigers … analysts at BettingPros lean to Miami because of coach Jai Lucas's historic single-season turnaround (25 wins) and the program … the Columbia (MO) Daily Tribune picked Miami to win because of the deflating effect of Missouri's three-game losing streak leading into the tournament … Chip Patterson (Sportsline) is going with the Hurricanes on the Moneyline, citing his belief that Miami won’t be bothered by the St. Louis crowd lining up behind Mizzou. Patterson tabs Miami guard Tre Donaldson as the “X Factor” who will lead the Canes to victory … at PowerMizzou com, a canvas of 20 national media people had 15 picking Miami … the five medias who went with Mizzou were Jay Bilas, Isaac Trotter (CBS), Dan Patrick, Joe Lunardi (ESPN), and Lindsay Schnell (The Athletic.)
Bernie’s Pick: I’m very torn on this and can’t make up my mind. Frankly, I don’t trust the Tigers but as I fan I hope the 314 will loud up and rise up and give the “home” team about a three-point edge. That would be enough to for Missouri to win out right or cover the 1 and ½ point spread as an underdog. But looking at all of the different metrics components, the Hurricanes get the check mark in most categories. Close call. But Miami.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.