The walls shook around MLB front offices last week when the Toronto Blue Jays signed free-agent starting pitcher Dylan Cease to a sumptuous seven-year deal valued at $210 million. The contract has an annual average salary of $30 million.
In terms of contract length, the magnitude of the Cease signing exceeded all projections. The crowdsourcing survey at Fan Graphs came in with an estimate of five years, $130 million. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted five years, $145 million. The Athletic projected six years, $174 million.
The reliable MLB Trade Rumors site has a good track record for making realistic and fairly accurate projections. So it was no surprise to see MLBTR closest to the mark with its Cease projection of seven years, $189 million. That’s an annual average salary of $27 million – only $3 million less per year than the actual contract.