Game Information
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) vs Washington Commanders (3-4)
Time: 7:15pm CT Monday
How to watch: ABC
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Chiefs -10.5
Total: 48.5
The Kansas City Chiefs look to keep pace in the AFC West when they host the Washington Commanders this evening on Monday Night Football.
The Broncos and Chargers both won this week, with Denver improving to 6-2 and Los Angeles moving up to 5-3. The Chiefs are certainly expected to improve to 5-3 tonight as well, as they come in as a double-digit favorite.
But even with Jayden Daniels out tonight due to a hamstring injury, I think this line is too high.
The Chiefs had an incredibly dominant performance last week against a Raiders team that wasn’t even competitive in that game, and that has resulted in the public opinion of Kansas City being extremely favorable. Meanwhile the Commanders are coming off a 44-22 loss at Dallas, so the market opinion of them is low. The Chiefs are getting 69% of the bets on the spread as of the time of this writing.
But I think this is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.
The Commanders are definitely capable of being effective offensively with Marcus Mariota as the starting quarterback. He has started two games this season, and Washington scored 41 and 27 points in those games. The Commanders have a rushing attack that leads the NFL with 5.4 yards per carry, and the Chiefs haven’t been great against the run this season by allowing 4.5 yards per carry (21st in the NFL).
The Chiefs are humming offensively right now, so they should certainly score their fair share of points. I just think this spread is too inflated with Washington having a capable offense.
Lastly, there is one notable trend in Washington’s favor here courtesy of the Action Network. When teams are coming off a blowout loss of 20+ points and are an underdog of 3+ points in their next game like the Commanders are here, those teams cover the spread 57% of the time.
I look for Washington to have a bounceback effort and cover the number here, but I do expect the Chiefs to win straight up and continue their charge up the AFC standings.
Pick: Commanders +10.5 at -105 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Wednesday night on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer