Talking about the Mizzou-Auburn game the other day with my friend and STL Sports Central colleague Randy Karraker, I used the word “scary” in describing the matchup from a Mizzou-fan perspective. I might have even thrown in a “nervous” or two.
Missouri is a slim 1 and ½ point favorite in their first road game of the 2025 season. Which, come to think of it, is the No. 1 reason for my anxiety.
Not the opponent, Auburn.
It’s the location of the game: Auburn, Alabama.
Going into this new weekend of college football, 15 SEC teams have played a combined total of 32 road games including 21 played in the conference.
The 16th SEC team, your Missouri Tigers, will finally join the road gang with a visit to the “Loveliest Village on The Plains.”
Which is a lovely nickname for Auburn’s home base. Hopefully for Mizzou, Auburn will be a lovely place for winning an SEC game away from CoMo instead of tripping through an unfamiliar road haze.
The Missouri players are finally free to leave The Eli Drinkwitz Safe House. The last time Mizzou played an SEC road game outside of Boone County was Mississippi State on Nov. 23, 2024. By kickoff time at Auburn, that’ll be 328 days ago. That’s some schedule! Presumably the fellas remembered how to pack and everything.
Over the past two seasons, the 2023-24 Tigers won 22 of 27 games overall but went only 4-4 in SEC road games.
In 2023 Mizzou won at Vandy, Kentucky, and Arkansas and lost at Georgia.
In ‘24 MU won at Mississippi State and lost at Texas A&M, Alabama and South Carolina.
The four road defeats came by an average margin of 19.5 points – though the four-point loss at South Carolina came with 15 seconds remaining in the game.
So Mizzou was respectable – but hardly formidable – when traveling around the SEC back roads in the previous two campaigns. So that’s why I’m wary of how the ‘25 squad will do in its first road test. I think it’s a legit question.
Will Missouri be unsteady in a hostile environment? Will Missouri need time – too much time – to settle down and emerge with a win? Will the Auburn crowd – perhaps demoralized by recent events – be jacked up to the point of delirium? Or will this be a more gentle setting for the traveling Tigers?
Auburn coach Hugh Freese may not be on the old hot seat but he’s probably sitting at chafing dish temperature. Will Auburn fans rally to his side, or have they dismissed his chances of coming back?
Freeze has a chance to save his gig … but the SEC is insane … so who knows? A win over Mizzou could lead to a turnaround.
Another question: how will Mizzou quarterback Beau Pribula handle – or mishandle – the first road start of his collegiate career? As a backup at Penn State, Pribula got into eight games and played well. But this is a much different assignment for him.
Other reasons for a little anxiety:
– Mizzou likes to run the football against everybody (except Alabama). And Auburn is supposedly tough against the run.
– Mizzou likes to hammer opponents with their lead back Ahmad Hardy. No one has been able to corral Hardy except for Missouri’s coaching staff. Which explains why Hardy had only 12 carries in the three-point loss to Alabama at Faurot Field. Sorry to go with the thoroughbred analogy, but when you have Secretariat, you let the horse run and run and run.
– Auburn (3-3) has had some ridiculously tough luck during its current three-game SEC losing streak to Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Georgia.
– Auburn was tied 10-10 at Oklahoma at halftime but lost by seven in large part because of an illegal play (formation?) that went for a Sooners touchdown. The officials missed the violation, the touchdown stood, Auburn lost, Freeze brooded, and that officiating crew was suspended for a week.
– Auburn was down only 13-10 in the fourth quarter at Texas A&M before succumbing by six points. No teams want to lose but at least Auburn lost to a better team, and on the road, and there is no shame in that.
– Playing Georgia at home last week, Auburn jumped to a 10-0 lead but fell 20-10 after a controversial fumble call at the goal line. Another shaky call, but the Freeze offense went into a freeze after the early biting of the Dawgs
– Freeze has been bellyaching about the officiating and it’s understandable. But it doesn’t excuse his overall 14-17 record at Auburn that’s punctured by a 5-14 mark in the SEC.
And though Freeze built his rep as an offensive guru – as well as some other, um, stuff – he doesn’t seem to have the mojo anymore. He may not make it to a fourth season at Auburn. This would make him Bryan Harsin II. Will Auburn’s players fight to save the coach’s job, or are they already looking at the transfer portal menu to scan available reservations?
Auburn’s Tigers were ranked No. 22 in the AP top 25 poll on Sept. 22 but have disappeared after the three straight losses. But Auburn isn’t irrelevant. These Tigers have enough talent to upset the Missouri Tigers if MU messes up.
However …
This is why I like being a numbers nerd.
I really believe the only way Mizzou loses the game is by losing the game in a way that doesn’t require a skilled and spirited performance by the home team.
Mizzou’s credibility is on the line … it goes something like this:
“Hey, Mizzou finally left their home stadium to come out and play, and they fell apart. Couldn’t handle the road. Overrated wimps.”
Not my opinion. But Mizzou skeptics are fired up to start talking trash and lighting up the Tigers.
But early Friday morning, I went to the numbers and didn’t even have to pull data from the deep end of the data pool. I just headed to the college football grading done – and done very well – by Pro Football Focus.
And there are mismatches all over the place in favor of Mizzou. I’ll just list the simple FBS national rankings.
One preliminary note: Missouri has the second-best running attack in the nation, and Auburn counters with the No. 5 run defense.
So the ground game is an important battleground to watch. Mizzou backs Hardy, Jamal Roberts and Marquise Davis should get it done, but Mizzou’s No. 4-ranked run defense will have to contain Auburn’s Jeremiah Cobb. He’s good.
As for other areas?
Mizzou gets a lot of checkmarks.
Overall offense: Mizzou No. 4 and Auburn 98.
Overall defense: Mizzou No. 8, Auburn 75.
Passing grade: Mizzou No. 26, Auburn 128.
Receivers: Mizzou No. 8, Auburn 110.
Pass rush: Mizzou No. 6, Auburn 58.
Pass protection: Mizzou No. 24, Auburn 83.
Pass coverage: Mizzou No. 39, Auburn 132.
Special teams: Mizzou No. 16, Auburn 131st.
I do have some concerns over Pribula’s tendency to make a few careless plays which leaves Mizzou vulnerable to turnovers. That said, if Pribula plays a calm and confident game Saturday, he should give Mizzou a huge advantage over Auburn quarterback Jackson Arrnold.
Here’s why.
Take a look at the rankings:
Overall offensive grade: Pribula 38th, Arnold 114.
Passing grade: Pribula 26th, Arnold 128.
Rushing: Pribula 93rd, Arnold 31.
Arnold does more with his legs and is a dangerous scrambler. Pribula is mobile and nifty but hasn’t had as much impact as Arnold when it’s time to take off and go.
But the numbers, the grades, are also clear on this: Pribula is a much better passer than Arnold when under pass-rush heat. Arnold ranks 147th in that department, and Pribula is an impressive 17th. And with Mizzou’s outstanding and disruptive pass rush, that’s probably a big problem for Auburn.
And while Pribula isn’t a great passer on downfield throws, his numbers are significantly better than Arnold’s in passes that travel 20+ yards in the air.
So this is really an important game for Pribula. This opportunity gives the transfer a chance to show he can play with poise and precision in a challenging road environment. He's the better quarterback going into this game, and that's among the reasons why he can't lose this game and dump MU into a two-game losing streak with the possibility of losing a third straight game if they fall at Vandy.
And not that anyone is really worried about Beau, it would be great to see him take charge and smoothly direct the Tigers to a 10-point win. And a good road showing at Auburn would give Pribula more confidence next week when Mizzou travels to Vanderbilt.
Thanks for reading and have a good weekend!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX. And you can catch a weekly “reunion” matchup here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show.