Willson Contreras is finished for the season after moving to the IL with a strained right bicep. The Contreras file is closed for 2025.
That’s three seasons in the books for Contreras as a Cardinal. Contreras has two more years to go on a five-year, $87.5 million free-agent contract he signed with the Redbirds before the 2023 season.
As soon as the Cardinals made the announcement, I looked around to see some reaction. I wasn’t surprised by any of it. There were Contreras supporters, Contreras haters, and pleas to trade him this coming offseason.
I’m a Contreras fan. Other fans are not. The only thing that bothers me about the Contreras criticism is when it’s based on a false premise. And there’s a lot of that going around.
The Premise: Contreras lost value when the Cardinals moved him to first base, so it wasn’t a smart move.
There’s a little truth to this, so the premise isn’t totally bogus. But I don’t buy into this as much as others do.
Let’s talk it through …
– First of all, let’s remember how this all began. The STL front office wanted to make Ivan Herrera their primary catcher in 2025. That was understandable, because Herrera has an outstanding bat, and in theory the Cardinals could maximize their offense at two positions by installing Herrera at catcher and Contreras at first base. One problem: Herrera can’t throw out base stealers. And the physical demands of catching made him vulnerable to injury.
– In what was termed as a “reset” season to give young players an expanded opportunity, there was no reason to sign first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to another contract for 2025. Putting Contreras at first base made sense. The only question would be the quality of his defense there. More on that later. But the front-office plan wasn’t stupid. Not at all. Because of Herrera’s glaring throwing-related issues, his anticipated improvement never materialized. And this came after Herrera worked hard last offseason to enhance his ability to throw out those base-stealing thieves. And Herrera’s two stays on the Injured List removed the team’s best from the lineup.
– The Cardinals upgraded their defense by having Pedro Pages as their primary catcher. His caught-stealing rate of 28 percent was above the league-average 20 percent. Runners went 15 for 15 in steal attempts against Herrera.
– Cards pitchers had a 5.35 ERA when pitching to Herrera this season – and a 4.02 ERA when working with Pages.
– The Cardinals could have moved Contreras back to catcher, and made Alec Burleson their primary first baseman. That’s an idea that gained currency after the fact – when it was really easy to suggest it. But once again: how can the same folks who ridiculed Contreras for being an awful catcher immediately pivot and demand that he put the catching gear back on?
– In 2023-2024, when Contreras was the primary catcher, the Cardinals ranked 5th in the majors at the position in Wins Above Replacement. That’s good. But it also goes against the haters’ claims that Contreras was terrible defensively behind the plate – a clear exaggeration.
– This season, with Contreras stationed at first base, the Cards are 15th at catcher with 2.7 WAR. But that 2.7 is only 1.2 less WAR than they averaged at catcher in the two seasons of Contreras behind the dish.
– That’s not a significant difference. And by moving Contreras, the Cardinals got better with their pitch selection and throwouts with Pages. Yes, there are holes in the points I’m making … but that’s just another aspect of this team’s flawed and confusing roster construction.
– With Contreras at first, the Cardinals received more value at 1B than they did last season. In 2024, the Cardinals had 2.3 WAR from the first-base spot – which ranked 9th among the 30 teams. This season with Contreras as their primary first baseman, St. Louis ranks 3rd in the majors with 4.0 WAR at first base.
– With Contreras transferred to his new position, the Cardinals improved offensively and defensively at first base in 2025.
– In Goldschmidt’s final season, he performed five percent above league average offensively per wRC+. That ranked 15th among MLB first basemen. This season Contreras ranked 8th among first basemen with a wRC+ that’s 33 percent above league average offensively.
– On defense, Goldy ranked 16th among first basemen with zero Outs Above Average and was 11th with a +1 Fielding Run Value. This season Contreras was ranked tied for 4th among first basemen with 6 Outs Above Average, and 6th in with a +4 Fielding Run Value.
– This is why Contreras doubled Goldy’s 1.5 WAR as a first baseman last season by posting 3.0 WAR as STL’s first baseman in 2025.
PREMISE: Contreras is a good hitter and all, but a first baseman should provide more offense than he gives the Cardinals.
That’s interesting … and absolutely false. Which makes it a false premise.
– As a position, first-base production has been in decline for a long time. It isn’t the big-boom spot that we became accustomed to seeing and expecting. This year’s collective 107 wRC+ at first base – only seven percent above league average – is tied for 19th over the past 20 seasons.
– In that context, Contreras was a significant upgrade at first base for the Cardinals. His offense was among the best supplied by the good-hitting first basemen out there in ‘25.
– Details: Contreras is tied with Bryce Harper for 7th among first basemen with a wRC+ that’s 33 percent higher than league average offensively. Among first basemen with at least 350 plate appearances Contreras stands among the top 10 in batting average, onbase percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, ISO, home runs, and runs batted in.
– Only six big-league first basemen have knocked in more runs (75) than Contreras this year. His overall offense (per wRC+) is better than a number of notable first basemen including Goldschmidt, Spencer Torkelson, Josh Naylor, Luis Arraez, Rhys Hoskins and Christian Walker.
PREMISE: Let’s face it. Contreras was a bad signing.
Huh. That opinion is borderline wacko. At best, it’s a shaky premise, unsupported by facts … unless, of course, you’re a Contreras-hating loon that blames the Cardinals’ three straight disappointing seasons all on him. Then it would be a bad signing. But it’s been, at worst, a solid signing. How many dudes can switch from catcher to first base to help the team out and become better than the first baseman (Goldy) that he replaced? Unless it’s Joe Mauer or Buster Posey, catchers ain’t supposed to do that.
– Since he signed with the Cardinals, Contreras ranks 9th among qualifying right-handed big league hitters in wRC+, putting up a profile that’s 30 percent above league average offensively. I would say that’s really good. Other than the young Herrera, I don’t see any other right-handed hitters doing much around this place – do you?
– In terms of the FanGraphs value calculations, his three-season performance as a Cardinal has been worth $65.3 million. And if we prorate that over five years, it comes to nearly $110 million. And that would be around $22 million more than the Cardinals signed him for.
– In his three seasons as a Cardinal, Contreras leads the Cardinals in WAR, wRC+, slugging percentage, onbase percentage, OPS and wOBA. And he’s second in homers, RBIs and Isolated Power – and third in batting average. Sarcasm alert: gee what an awful signing.
PREMISE: Contreras gets banged up a lot and is wearing down. He misses too many games.
Is that right? I’ll let Baseball Reference know that they’ve made an error. Because in 2025, Contreras set a single-season career high with 563 plate appearances. And this season, at age 33, he’s played only three games fewer than he did at age 26 in 2018. Verdict: False premise.
PREMISE: Contreras doesn’t hit in the clutch. Always popping up, or striking out, leaving too many guys on base.
That must be true (kidding) so I thought I should look it up. And what do we have? Another false premise.
As a Cardinal, this is what Contreras has done with runners in scoring position: a wRC+ that’s 29 percent above league average offensively, a .370 onbase percentage, a .445 slug, an .814 OPS, and 151 runs batted in 550 at-bats. And in those pressure high-leverage situations Contreras has a .282 average and .858 OPS. Yeah, he folds under pressure.
PREMISE: Bernie, Contreras is a fine hitter, and I like him, but he isn’t a middle-lineup hitter.
– OK, thank you for being polite. But as Cardinal here is our man’s hitting profile when batting third, fourth or fifth in the lineup: .271 average, .393 onbase rate, .481 slug, .871 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 38 percent above league average offensively. And his wOBA in those spots (.369) is strong.
– Since the start of 2023, Contreras is one of 47 major-league hitters that have made 1,000 combined plate appearances in the 3-4-5 spots.
– Among those 47 hitters, Contreras ranks tied for 8th with Freddie Freeman in wRC+. His wOBA is also 8th. But if we go by wRC+, Contreras has been a more effective hitter in the 3-4-5 spots than the likes of Jose Ramirez, Pete Alonso, Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Cal Raleigh Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, Cody Bellinger and Randy Arozarena over the last two-plus seasons. Among others.
I think that’s really good, but if the Cardinals can develop or acquire a hitter that would be even better than Contreras in the 3-4-5 spot, I would like it. Because that would give the Cardinals a more dangerous offense.
I don’t think the premise is false in some ridiculous manner – but it just isn’t supported by the facts
PREMISE: The Cardinals should trade Contreras before the 2026 season.
OK, I have an open mind on this. But of course it depends on a few things:
* With two years to go on his contract, would Contreras waive his full no-trade protection?
* This season the Cardinals ranked near the bottom of the majors in slugging, OPS and wRC+ by right-handed hitters. Is it smart to subtract the team’s most reliable right-handed bat since 2023?
* What would the Cardinals receive in exchange for Contreras? He’ll be 34 next season and 35 in the final year of his contract. And while he’s still a positive producer of offense, some of his key stats have slipped – though not in an alarming way. So what’s the market?
* Or would this just be a salary dump? And if this is a salary dump, how much money (if any) would the Cardinals be willing to kick in to get a deal done?
* If this is about slotting Burleson at first base, I get it. But would the Cards be committed to Burly at first base? Or what about the idea of Herrera playing first base?
There is definitely a case to be made for trading Contreras. But such a deal must make a lot of sense for the Cardinals. You don’t trade Contreras just because a bunch of whiners are making up falsehoods to justify their off-base opinions about his performance.
It’s hard to jump to conclusions about any of these matters because we don’t know how Chaim Bloom assesses the Cardinals as he begins to reshape the roster and STL’s future direction.
What I don’t understand is why so many Cardinal fans – seemingly – go out of their way to find negatives to stick on Contreras.
The dude is a warrior. He gets overheated at times, because he’s so intense, but when was this ever considered a fault by this fan base?
Here's my answer on a trade: I support Chaim Bloom on what he thinks is the best way to go.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch.
Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.