It was nice of old friend Mike Shildt and his San Diego Padres to come to St. Louis for a long and sweltering weekend on the sun field at Busch Stadium and put an end to the home team’s grandiose delusions of a playoff spot.
The Cardinals raised their own hopes – and the longings of a reduced fan base – by winning the first two games to move within 1 and ½ games of the Padres for the NL’s No. 3 wild-card spot.
But as has been the case since late May, the Cardinals reverted to form, dropping the final two games to Shildt’s squad. In splitting the four-gamer, the Redbirds missed a chance to (a) overtake the Padres in the standings, (b) win the series, and (c) give president of baseball operations John Mozeliak a reason to revise his thinking before Thursday’s MLB trading deadline.
Over the final 36 hours of ball against the San Diegans, the Cardinals and their optimism were flattened. The Cardinals scored three runs over the final 22 innings of the series. Young starting pitchers Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy couldn’t push the Padres into submission.
While McGreevy on Sunday was worse than Liberatore on Saturday, neither guy made it through five innings. In their combined nine innings, Liberatore and McGreevy were pelted for nine earned runs, 15 hits and four walks. And Libby and McGreevy collectively struck out only five of 48 batters faced for a frail strikeout rate of 10.4 percent.
In other words: same as it ever was … well, at least since late May.
Since May 30 the Cardinals have the worst starting-pitching ERA in the majors at 5.85, and over that time the STL offense ranks 22nd in the majors in runs scored and rates among the bottom six of the 30 teams in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, isolated power and OPS.
This is not a good team, and even though the Cardinals are still only 3 and ½ games out of that third wild-card spot, their close-range position is attributable to the stumbles and tumbles of teams like the Padres, Giants and Diamondbacks.
The Cardinals haven’t done their part to stay in this race; the other teams have permitted them to hang around.
St. Louis is 22-29 since May 30 and ranks 26th in the majors in winning percentage (.431) over that time frame. More recently, the Redbirds have won only seven of their last 22 games since June 30.
That segment of the schedule began with three consecutive shutout losses at Pittsburgh. (Bad memories). And since June 30 the Cardinals rank 14th in the NL and 28th overall with a .318 winning percentage – and have been outscored by 65 runs.
By making the Cardinals go sit down on Saturday and Sunday, the Padres indirectly assisted the cause to save competitive major-league baseball in St. Louis.
Instead of getting caught up in some fake “race” for a wild-card spot, Mozeliak will remain focused on what’s really important: capitalizing on the opportunity to cash in tradeable players to enlarge the organizational talent pool to assist their soft-rebuild project.
With that in mind …
TRADE-ASSET CATEGORIES
The ‘Duh’ Group: Relievers Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz are on expiring contracts. And if any or all of them are still on this team after the deadline, it would be a travesty and an inexcusable final failure by the Mozeliak regime.
Smart, Opportunistic Moves: This could apply to several Cardinals but lefty reliever JoJo Romero fits exactly what I’m referring to. I’ve been all over this one for several weeks now. Romero is not only having a fantastic season after making an early mechanical adjustment, but he’s statistically on the short list of best MLB relievers since April 27. And Romero’s trade value is enhanced by his contract situation; he can’t become a free agent until after the 2026 season. That’s a bonus for any contender that’s chasing the always-valuable lefty relief help. In his 29 appearances since April 27, Romero has the best ERA by a major-league lefty at 0.36. That’s second overall to right-handed Mets reliever Edwin Diaz (0.29). Over this time, Romero has dealt with 15 inherited runners and none have scored. He’s tough on lefty hitters (30%) strikeout rate and does a good job vs. RH bats. Mozeliak has a chance to trade Romero at peak value; it would be absolutely asinine to let this opportunity pass.
What About Old Faithful? The speculation is percolating again about trade interest in Cards third baseman Nolan Arenado. I remain skeptical for several reasons: (1) Arenado is owed $42 million in guaranteed pay through 2027; (2) Arenado has the full no-trade protection that he’s already flexed to block a trade to Houston; (3) Arenado is deep into the misery of a substantial offensive decline as a hitter; (4) Arenado will be age 35 in 2026, and age 36 in 2027; and (5) Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. will absolutely be asked to pay off a huge portion of the money owed to Nado. And if Arenado wants (as he says) a shot at winning a World Series, that won’t happen for him in St. Louis. So he can’t be picky about where he would like to go in a trade. Good luck with all of that.
Surprise deals? Always possible, but I think Mozeliak will be focusing on dealing with the team’s pending free agent. But the Cardinals have fielded inquiries on shortstop Masyn Winn, and outfielders Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson. There is significant interest in Brendan Donovan. The Cardinals don’t want to give up Jordan Walker, and aren’t hepped up on the idea of dealing Nolan Gorman. Nootbaar (as usual) has “hurt” the situation by suffering yet another injury that towed him to the Injured List. I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for several weeks now: other than top prospect JJ Wetherholt, and the young DH and left fielder Ivan Herrera, no Cardinal player should be off limits between now and the deadline.
Trading A Veteran For A Veteran: Both teams win! OK, this is what the smarty-pants people are suggesting, and sure that’s a way for the Cardinals to possibly put muscle in their starting rotation for next season. This is a decent idea but hardly anything new; Mozeliak did it in 2022 by trading center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees for starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery. But flinging names out to put together a trade of this type is basically a game of pin the tail on the donkey; I don’t have the blindfold or the time to get lost in these speculative mazes. As a theory, yes, I like it. I would like it even better if Chaim Bloom had the authority over all trade-deadline transactions.
Catch Them If You Can: Surely the Cardinals will move a catcher this week – or after the season when the offseason trading opens in preparation for 2026. The Cardinals are overloaded at the position and are in a position to flip one of their prospects – Jimmy Crooks or Leonardo Bernal – in exchange for good talent in return. Personally, I favor the idea of telling No. 1 starting catcher Pedro Pages to take a break and give a late-season big-league audition to Crooks. And current No. 2 catcher Yohel Pozo – a delightful surprise – figures to draw some trade interest, and the Cardinals could put him with another player (a reliever) to receive a better package in return.
NEWS OF THE DAY
Three things.
@ One, Ivan Herrera is starting in left field for the Cardinals in Monday's game against the Marlins. This is welcome news, exciting news, because if Herrera can become a decent-solid left fielder between now and the end of the season, it gives the Cardinals more flexibility and options in their roster construction for 2026. Example: if Herrera isn't the de facto DH for the Cards in 2026, that creates a lot of playing-time opportunities for Nolan Gorman at DH. And Alec Burleson could slide in there, too. Another thought: if the Cards come to like the idea of Herrera in left field (along with Burleson) then there's no great need for Lars Nootbaar. And that makes Noot a more likely trade candidate. And he already has trade value (Statcast!) despite the injuries and average performance offensively this season. As a side note, I see no reason why anyone would assume Herrera will flop as a left fielder. To make such a sweeping dismissal of this change reveals a profound ignorance of Cardinals history. The LF spot is often set aside for terrific hitters who aren't the most graceful fielders. I can think of several examples from recent Redbirds history including Chris Duncan, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday and, Ron Gant, Marcel Ozuna, Matt Adams and Alec Burleson. The only name on that list who bombed in left field was Adams, a first baseman by trade. It was a dumb decision to put Adams in left field but manager Mike Matheny was stubbornly insistent on doing it -- until John Mozeliak intervened and traded Adams to Atlanta. I seem to recall when folks were barking about how stupid it was to put Burleson in left field. Granted, he looked clumsy out there. Hate to break it to ya, but style points don't matter. Making plays matters. This season Burly is a +1 in defensive runs saved in left field, and he's also a +1 in outs above average in left field. Classic example of a guy working hard and improving after being given an opportunity to a relatively unfamiliar position. Herrera will be much, much more valuable to the Cardinals in the future if he can handle left field. It may not look good at first -- I'm sure we'll see some screwups out there ... but again... GIVE IT TIME. Smart move by the Cards. Why would the Cards do this with the Cardinals in contention? Answer: They aren't in contention. This team ranks 12th among 15 MLB teams in winning percentage over its last 54 games.
@ Cardinals starting-pitching prospect Tekoah Roby just had Tommy John surgery to repair ligament damage in his right elbow. No surprise there, given Roby's history of elbow problems. Frankly, this seemed inevitable. And with any luck, the surgery will enable Roby to pitch continuously without frequent shutdowns because of elbow trouble. The bad news: Roby was having a good season in the minors and was on course to compete for a rotation spot in 2026. But preliminary reports indicate that the Cardinals don't expect Roby to resume pitching until the 2027 season. It's been a tough year for the Cards' minor-league pitching prospects; Roby becomes the third to undergo Tommy John surgery following Cooper Hjerpe and Sem Robberse. I wish Tink Hence could stay healthy, but there's always something (assorted injuries) with him.
@ Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has been placed on non-disciplinary paid leave as part of an ongoing investigation into sports-betting activity. He's the second Guardians pitcher to be placed on leave this month as part of the early investigation. Luis Ortiz has been on leave since July 3. At minimum, Clase will be on "leave" through Aug. 31. Clase was voted as the top American League closer last season after saving 47 games in 50 opportunities. He hasn't been as dominant this season -- 24 saves in 29 ops and a 3.23 ERA -- but he's still an elite closer and was high on the list of trade targets for contending teams that want to strengthen the back of the bullpen for high-leverage situations. This leave will impact the Guardians who were trying to make a "buyer or seller" decision. They'll probably go into the seller category now. But Clase is off the trade market, and that's a big deal in a number of ways. Example: with Clase unavailable for a trade right now, this development only increases Ryan Helsley's trade value as the Cardinals sort through offers for their closer before Thursday's 5 p.m. (STL time) deadline.
BIRD BYTES
1–Jordan Walker’s new and more open batting stance is working. In his 10 games since returning to the Cardinals after his recovery from appendicitis, Walker is hitting .314 with an .842 OPS. He’s shown more patience and is drawing walks. Since May 16, Walker has a .291 average and .767 OPS. Progress. Yes.
2–It would be a major plus for the Cardinals to ease their infield congestion and find a new home for Arenado, who still can be counted on to play strong defense. With JJ Wetherholt joining the band in the majors soon, the Cardinals can’t have all of these dudes playing second base. Moving Nolan Gorman to third base would open the clog.
3–Through Sunday’s loss to the Padres, Arenado hadn’t homered in his last 22 games. ‘Nado has dealt with a sprained finger and a sore shoulder, which set him back after he put up good numbers over the first three weeks of June. But Arenado has been dull at the plate lately, and that doesn’t help his trade value. In his last 23 games, Arenado has a weak .195 average with a poor .244 slugging percentage.
4–Another note on Nado: In his 68 games since April 27, Arenado has a wRC+ of 69, which means he’s 31 percent percent below league average offensively. That ranks 18th among 21 MLB third basemen who have at least 240 plate appearances over that time. Arenado was oiut of the starting lineup on Monday.
5–The Marlins are at Busch for the next three games before the deadline. And this is not the team that you may expect. On June 11 the Marlins were 16 games under .500 (25-41) with a minus 93 run differential. Since then Miami is 25-13 for a .658 winning percentage that ranks tied for second best in the majors since June 12. And the team has a +45 run differential in the last 38 games. Also: since Miami’s 38-game surge began, the team ranks among the top four NL offenses in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. They are also fifth in the NL in overall ERA and fourth in starting-pitcher ERA.
6–The Marlins have won nine of their last 12 series, with two series losses and one split. The Cardinals are 1-5-1 in their last seven series. So if the Cardinals lose this series to Miami, don’t say “I can’t believe the Cards lost a series to the Marlins!” Why? Because the Marlins are 7 and ½ games better than the Redbirds in the overall NL standings since June 12.
7–The Cardinals’ swoon began with a series at Pittsburgh starting June 30. The Cardinals were shut out in all three games, got smashed at Wrigley Field, and it’s pretty much been a hard fall for the Redbirds. Since June 30 they’ve won only seven of 22 games for a .318 winning percentage that ranks 14th in the NL and 28th overall. And in the 22 games the Cardinals were outscored by a blistering 65 runs. The offense has averaged 3.3 runs during this downturn, and the STL starters have a 7.53 ERA that’s the worst in the majors since that point, too.
8–The Cardinals have allowed an average of 5.1 runs per game since May 30. You can’t win with such awful run prevention or an offense that’s scored three runs or fewer in 25 of the team’s last 51 games. That includes 20 games of scoring two or fewer runs. You might be able to survive poor starting pitching for a while, or a cold and inconsistent offense for a while ... but if both areas are severely malfunctioning at the same time -- forget about it.
9–Since June 23, in his 28 games, Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras has batted .323 with a .409 OBP and .573 slug for a 16 extra-base hits and a .982 OPS. Over that time, Contreras (per wRC+) is 77 percent above league average offensively, and that ranks 3rd in the NL and 7th overall among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances going back to June 23.
10–Starting the new week, the Cardinals have lost 14 of 21 games in July. Their starters have a 7.27 ERA (worst in MLB) and their offense ranks 29th in runs scored. And the Cards’ run differential in July is a dreadful minus 46.
11–Know why the Padres won the final two games of the series from the Cardinals? Because the Padres have enough star power to rescue a team that’s been light on offense this season. Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez and Manny Machado went a combined 25 for 51 in the four-game series. But in Sunday’s game, which salvaged a series split for San Diego, Tatis, Arraez and Machado were a combined 9 for 14 with four RBIs and five runs scored. The Cardinals can’t match that level of star power – not on a consistent basis, anyway.
12–Tracking Brendan Donovan: In his last 45 games the Cards All-Star is hitting .233 with a .681 OPS. And that includes his in-progress 33-game stretch in which Donny has batted .216 with a .299 on-base percentage and .659 OPS.
13–In his first 11 games at Triple A Memphis, JJ Wetherholt batted .333 with a .391 OBP and .762 slug. Nine of his 14 hits went for extra bases including four home runs.
14–In July, Cards starting pitchers have turned in only two quality starts in 21 games for a horrendous 9.5 percent QS rate. Andre Pallante had one of the quality starts; McGreevy delivered the other. In the other 19 July games, STL pitchers were burned for an 8.36 ERA. Good grief. And there are people out there who believe the Cardinals are a legitimate contender?
15–Herrera is getting on track after being interrupted by two separate injuries. After a slow restart following his second IL stay, Herrera is 7 for 17 (.412) in his last five games and has walked four times for a .524 onbase percentage. He also slugged .588 in the five games. For the season, using wRC+, Herrera is 50 percent above league average offensively. I think that’s really good … but one recent commentator told me he was tired of me overrating Herrera. Oh. OK. Whatever you say, champ. The Cardinals have MANY hitters that are 50 percent better than league average offensively. Right?
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.