Sports gambling has been legal in many states like Illinois for several years now, and it will be launching in Missouri this year on December 1st.
If you’re reading this article, there’s a good chance you’re already an avid sports bettor, you’ve dabbled a little bit into it already, or you’re eager to dive in when legal sports gambling goes live in Missouri in December.
My role at STL Sports Central involves hosting a weekly sports betting show called Domesticated Gamblers that airs every Friday on our YouTube channel. I also write a betting preview for every single game the St. Louis area teams play giving my opinion on how I see the game playing out - that’s for the Cardinals, Blues, St. Louis CITY SC, Battlehawks, Mizzou, and SLU.
Since STL Sports Central launched in February of this year, I’ve made 100 picks on games our local teams have played. Here are 10 takeaways from my first 100 picks that every sports bettor should keep in mind.
1. Keep track of all your picks
It doesn’t matter whether you’re betting every day or more sporadically. You should keep track of EVERY SINGLE BET you make. You can create your own spreadsheet or use an app such as Action Network. Here is a link to a spreadsheet I created to track every single pick I make for STLSportsCentral.com.
Why should you do this? More than 90% of sports bettors are losing players, so chances are, you’ll be one of them. Trust me… I’ve been there.
If you don’t keep track of every single bet you make, you will lose more money than you think. If I ever hear a person say something like “I probably finished about even last month”, I’m highly confident that person actually has no idea how they did and got crushed more than likely.
Hold yourself accountable. Be responsible with your money. And take feelings out of the equation. Tracking all of your bets gives you the facts of how you’re doing, what you’re good at, and what you’re not good at. It will help you make more informed and more responsible gambling decisions moving forward.
2. Be selective
Don’t be a degenerate and bet on a game just because you want to watch it.
For every game I preview on this site, I give a pick or a lean.
A pick means I have a strong opinion on the game and am betting it. With minus odds, I’m betting to win 1 unit. With plus odds, I’m risking 1 unit.
A lean means I don’t have a strong opinion and am not betting it, but I’m telling you what I would pick if forced to make a bet.
Being selective has served me well. Through 100 picks, I’m 53-47 for a profitable +2.08 units. My record on leans is 26-37, and if I would have bet all those leans, I’d be down 14.62 units on them.
If you don’t have a strong opinion on a game, don’t bet on it. You will lose in the long run.
3. Do not lay excessive juice
Take advantage of all the offerings that sportsbooks give you to help bring your juice down. One strategy I like to deploy is taking a team to win and adding on a player prop that is extremely likely to hit in order to bring down your price. Sportsbooks like DraftKings have a wide array of props for you to choose from.
For example, many times during the Blues’ 12-game winning streak, the Blues would be favored somewhere in the neighborhood of -150. Instead of laying the -150 and risking 1.5 units to win 1 unit, I would combine the Blues to win with Jordan Kyrou to record 2+ shots on goal, with Kyrou achieving that shot total in the vast majority of games. Tacking on the Kyrou 2+ shots on goal prop essentially serves as a coupon.
By doing that, you can get your price down closer to even money +100 instead of having to lay -150. A similar strategy I like to use in baseball is tacking on both teams to score 1+ runs in the game, which is very likely to hit every game.
Doing this will help limit damage in your efforts to be profitable. A lot of people with a record of 53-47 like me would be in the red because they’ve laid excessive juice. But because most of my bets are not higher than -110, I’m still in the green.
4. Bet with your head, not your heart
Not everyone is wired to be able to bet on a game involving their favorite teams. I am able to do it because I can remain objective and bet according to what my eyes see rather than what my heart feels. I can also emotionally handle the double whammy of both losing a bet and my favorite team losing.
If you can’t handle it, don’t bet on games involving your favorite teams. But if you can, I actually think betting on the games of our St. Louis area teams can provide a good edge. If you watch your teams day in and day out, you may pick up on tendencies that maybe the sportsbooks won’t.
5. Identify trends, and ride them while they’re hot
All betting trends come to an end at some point, but if you can identify those trends while they’re ongoing, you can make some profit before they run out.
For example in college basketball this season, I noticed that Mizzou was covering the first half spread at a very high rate, and unders in SLU games were hitting like crazy as well.
I rode those trends for a bit after identifying them and posted a 6-2 record this season betting Mizzou in the first half and the under in SLU games.
6. Never f*ck with a winning streak
Blues fans will remember the team’s 12-game winning streak this season for a long time - and so will I because I cashed in on it.
I enjoyed a stretch of winning 13 bets in a row on Blues games, with the last 10 of those betting on the Blues to win during their franchise-record streak. There were a few times during that streak I didn’t think the Blues were going to win, but I rode them anyway because as the line goes in the movie Bull Durham, “Never f*ck with a winning streak.”
All good things come to an end, but if a team is on a special run, find a way to back them until it runs out.
7. Tread lightly early in seasons
Most of my picks tend to be based on data from that season, which makes the beginning of a season challenging for me because there is no data yet.
I made a mistake of diving in too early betting on games at the beginning of the season for St. Louis CITY SC and the Cardinals.
I went 0-2-1 in my first 3 picks on CITY games. But once some data and trends were established, I had a much better idea of how to attack their games. I’m now on a run of going 8-3 in my last 11 picks on CITY games.
It’s a similar story in baseball. I went 0-5 on my first five Cardinals picks this season, but then reeled off a run of going 17-10 in my next 27 before running into some recent struggles.
Tread lightly early in seasons. Sometimes teams don’t perform out of the gate how you expect.
8. If you are cold, take a timeout
Proper bankroll management is the #1 key to sports gambling in my opinion. A trap that many people fall into (and again trust me… I’ve been there) is to chase losses when you go on a cold streak, and that is a surefire way to get crushed.
Cold streaks are inevitable. They are going to happen. Many people respond to those streaks by increasing their volume and/or increasing their unit size in order to catch up from their losses.
If you chase like that, you may survive a time or two. But I promise you in the long run, you will get burned by it.
When you are on a cold streak, take a timeout. I’m on one right now in fact.
I had a hot run of going 13-3 that brought my record up to 49-36 and +9.88 units.
But that hot run has been immediately followed by a 4-11 slump that has brought me down to the current record of 53-47 and +2.08 units.
When you go cold, DO NOT CHASE. Act like a coach in basketball, take a timeout, reset, and change the momentum. Keep a level head, remember it’s a marathon and not a sprint, and realize that regression will happen. I promise you that your cold streak will come to an end - just like your hot ones do too.
9. Don’t complain about bad beats
This goes into keeping a level head. One of the traits of a losing gambler is someone that excessively complains about “bad beats". They’ll often point to several unlikely things that happened in a game that caused them to lose their bet.
Meanwhile, that person never seems to point out the good fortune they experience when someone else’s “bad beat” goes their way.
When you suffer a “bad beat”, take a breath and remind yourself that these things will even out over time. This becomes a lot easier to do once you’re honest with yourself and acknowledge when you’re on the good end of someone else’s “bad beat.”
10. Have fun
Sports gambling is supposed to be fun. Realize it’s for entertainment and not a “get rich quickly” scheme.
Many people often ask what amount they should be betting on a game. The monetary answer can be different depending on the person, but the principle of it should be the same for everyone in my opinion.
If you lose a bet and it impacts you emotionally, your unit size is too big.
If you win a bet and you get no enjoyment out of it, your unit size is too small.
Find the sweet spot where you’re having fun and excited to get a win, but if you lose, you want to be able to quickly say in your mind “that sucks” and then immediately move about your day.
And if the stress outweighs the fun for you, don’t bet at all.
Sports gambling is hard. But if you do it the right way, man can it be fun!
Have fun, bet responsibly, and embrace the grind.
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer