On March 17, 2022, it was announced that St. Louis CITY SC had clicked “add to cart” on Bundesliga side Arminia Bielefeld centerback, Joakim Nilsson. A seemingly huge acquisition, the Swedish international was signed to a Targeted Allocation Money (TAM) contract worth $1,203,500 per year through 2026 on June 1st, 2022.
Since then, Nilsson has appeared merely 29 times across all competitions for St. Louis, accruing 1,801 (approximately 20 full matches) MLS regular season minutes and netting one goal. He featured in preseason this year, but will now go at least the first three matches--and probably more--without seeing the pitch in the 2025 MLS regular season.
Let’s talk about his situation.
One thing to make clear is that Joakim Nilsson is a fantastic defender. He sported strong stats during his days in the Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga and has proven to be the best spatial defender for St. Louis… when healthy.
That’s the big issue.
Nilsson has never had a season ending injury, but rather a series of recurring injuries with various body parts. Quads, hamstrings--you name it, he has hurt it.
This wasn’t an issue in his time with Arminia, and given the injury history of Rasmus Alm, João Klauss, Eduard Löwen, and other CITY players, question marks regarding the St. Louis CITY SC medical and fitness crews began to pop up. Ultimately, I do not think that is the root cause. I think we've just had a bad case of tough luck.
So, should CITY look into using their first contract termination/buyout in club history on Joakim Nilsson? Should they look to sell him overseas? What about an MLS trade?
MLS clubs only get so much TAM each year; $2,225,000 to be precise. CITY have $459,750.00 of it (20.66%) tied up with Nilsson. If Nilsson were a regular starter in the St. Louis campaign, that would be a very reasonable number and wouldn't pose any questions for a defender of his quality.
But, any time he is injured (which, as of 3/5/2025, has been exactly 40% of all MLS regular season matches in the history of the club), that’s money St. Louis could be using to roster high caliber players without taking a hit to the cap—and my math has CITY holding as much as $1.908 million in space before reaching the $5.950 million cap.
With a ton of GAM in the wallet, including the amount acquired in the Indiana Vassilev deal, MLS cash-transfers now being an option, and 2 roster slots open (1 senior, 1 supplemental), the options to find a suitable replacement would certainly be plentiful.
My verdict? Don’t sell yet.
CITY have the depth at the centerback position to handle things (especially when Reid/JGR return), and the defense has been elite against two strong attacking clubs thus far. Things will be even better if Nilsson gets healthy and can contribute.
Rostered Centerbacks: Timo Baumgartl, Kyle Hiebert, Jannes Horn, Jake Girdwood-Reich, Henry Kessler, Joakim Nilsson, Joshua Yaro
Instead, look for a blockbuster move to bolster the roster. A dominant right wingback or a big time center defensive midfielder could easily be on the table. CITY certainly have the assets to make it happen, and we all know Pfannenstiel tends to take initiative in these types of moments. The Amazon wish list should be long for him and the recruiting staff at this point, and phones should be ringing from the German's number.
Perhaps this was an indication of what is to come:
"Our aim now is to come out stronger from this trade by reinvesting as soon as possible to bolster the team." - Sporting Director Lutz Pfannenstiel on the Indiana Vassilev trade.
Down the line, Nilsson can be reevaluated in 2026. At that point, CITY can look to offload him before he would enter free agency if they were to opt to decline his 2027 club option. If he is staying healthy and performing as expected, his 2027 option could be activated to help keep the defensive room strong and deep for another season.