Connor McMichael arrived from Washington on June 23 as the headline return in the trade that sent Jordan Kyrou to the Capitals, along with prospect Milton Gastrin and the 16th overall pick. He was also, at that moment, a restricted free agent with no new contract. Weeks later, that's still true. McMichael has filed for arbitration, and his hearing is now set for July 25.
What makes this one harder than a typical bridge negotiation is the absence of any track record between player and team. McMichael has never taken a shift in a Blues sweater. Whatever comes out of this, whether a negotiated deal or an arbitrator's ruling, will be built almost entirely on three seasons of tape from Washington.
In 2024-25, McMichael was a full-time top-six weapon, scoring 26 goals and 57 points in 82 games. Last season his point total dipped to 46 across 78 games. However, it's the shape of that decline that matters here. McMichael's assists climbed from 31 to 32, while his shooting percentage fell from a career-best 14.7 percent to 9.9 percent. Some of that drop-off looks like puck luck evening out though rather than a change in his game, even though his on-ice possession numbers cooled as well, with tougher deployment in Washington.
The rising camp is what truly favors getting a deal done. The NHL's upper limit jumps from $95.5 million to $104 million in 2026-27, with another climb to $113.5 million for 2027-28. The Blues set their own data point on May 1, signing Dylan Holloway to a five-year, $7.75 million AAV extension off back-to-back seasons of 63 and 51 points. This number is closer to the top of the market, not the target for McMichael.
Closer to his profile is Buffalo's Peyton Krebs, who settled his own arbitration case Monday at four years and $4.5 million annually after a career-high 39-point season. Krebs' ceiling is lower than what McMichael already showed in his 57-point year, which gives McMichael's camp real grounds to push above that $4.5 million mark.
With those figures working together as an upper/lower amount with McMichael's age, usage, and track record, and a deal in the $4.75 million to $5.5 million range suddenly looks like the fair landing spot. A three-year bridge near the low end mirroring Krebs' term with a higher AAV, or a longer four- to six-year deal in the $5.25 million to $6 million range if the Blues want to bet on the version of McMichael that scored 57 points.