Since the word ‘review’ is in the title of this here column, I suppose it’s time to put that description to work by reviewing the month of May as performed by your St. Louis Cardinals.
Team Record: 13-13, .500. That ranked 16th overall and 9th in the National League. That winning percentage was down from the .580 level in March-April.
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: at the completion of play on May 31, the Cardinals had a 26.2 percent crack at making the postseason. That’s the ninth highest among NL teams.
MOST POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT: PITCHING
The Cardinals were burned for an average of 5.09 runs allowed per game in March-April; only five MLB teams were ransacked for more runs.
The run prevention was much tighter in May, as the St. Louis pitchers reduced their yield to 3.8 runs per contest, a rate that ranked 12th in the majors.
– Overall ERA: 3.43, 9th best in MLB.
– Starting pitching ERA: 3.69, 10th in MLB.
– Quality starts: tied for 6th best overall. After posting a 29% quality start percentage in the opening month, the Cardinals increased that to 42.3% in May. That’s a significant upturn.
– Bullpen ERA: 3.02, 9th overall, but the relievers were charged with four blown saves. That’s not terrible considering the bullpen fumbled six save opportunities in March-April.
– The Cardinal starters and relievers boosted their collective strikeout rate by 4.4% from March-April. That’s a meaningful uptick.
– The starting pitching turnaround: The rotation ERA improved by 17.3 percent from the March-April (4.46) to a 3.69 ERA in May.
– Kyle Leahy improved by 49.1 percent, cutting his ERA to 2.81 in May after his 5.52 ERA in March April.
– Dustin May was next with a 26.9 percent improvement from the first month (5.28) to May (3.86).
– Matthew Liberatore showed a 16.2% improvement from his March-April ERA (4.75) to May (3.98.)
– Michael McGreevy was essentially the same, though his May ERA (3.00) was a smidge better than his 2.97 in March-April.
– Andre Pallante had the only real downturn from one month to the next: 3.73 ERA in March-April to 4.73 in May. That’s an increase of 17.3%.
– A number of St. Louis relievers boiled down their earned-run averages in May: JoJo Romero (0.77), George Soriano (1.93), Ryne Stanek (2.00), Ryan Fernandez (2.25), Gordon Graceffo (2.84) and Justin Bruihl (3.60).
MOST NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENT: OFFENSE
I’ve gone through this a bunch of times but now that May is a wrap I think a summary is appropriate. The Cardinals had a top 10 MLB offense in March-April but couldn’t sustain the high level of production in May.
– The Cards averaged 5.0 runs during the first month and that slipped to an average of 3.5 runs per game in May. That’s a huge decline of 30 percent.
– As a team St. Louis hit a homer every 25.4 at-bats in March-April, but that AB/HR ratio was a home run every 39.3 at-bats in May. That’s a startling decrease of 54.7% from the first-month homer rate.
– Bottoming out: I jumped on this about 2 and ½ weeks into the month, and it turned out to be a devastating trend within the Cards offense. I’m referring to the performance of the 5-6-7-8-9 spots in the STL batting order. The primary cast members: Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, Pedro Pages and Victor Scottt.
In May, those five lineup spots collectively generated a 56 wRC+ that translated into a debilitating 44 percent below league average offensively. The group’s batting average for the month was .197, the slugging percentage was .282, and the OPS was .542. In 527 May plate appearances the 5-6-7-8-9 slots produced only 31 RBIs; no other team had fewer than 41 runs batted in from their last five lineup spots in May.
With runners in scoring position the Cardinals’ “final five” hit .119 in May. That was even worse (.109) in high-leverage plate appearances.
How in the heck is a team supposed to score enough runs when 55.5 percent of the lineup spots are basically dry holes with no oil? The Cardinals kept drilling and drilling … but those five spots, collectively, failed to reach base in 74 percent of the plate appearances. And the final five failed to drive in a run in 82.5 percent of the plate appearances taken and largely wasted.
REPERCUSSIONS
Given the considerable gains made by the pitching staff, the Cardinals should have finished with a more successful May record than 13 and 13.
Ah, but the club lost four games when a STL pitcher provided a quality start. And the Cards were only 4-3 when allowing exactly two or three runs in a May game.
That’s because the offense, in May, scored three runs or fewer in 53.8 of the team’s games … and scratched for two runs or fewer in 50 percent of their competitions during the month.
Here’s the breakdown:
* 3 or less runs in a May game: 2-12 record.
* 2 or less runs in a May game: 1-12 record.
SUMMARIZING
From the work in the opening month to the production in May, the Cardinals endured major declines in runs scored, home runs smashed, on-base percentage, extra-base hits, slugging percentage, walk rate, stolen bases, sacrifice flies, sac bunts, times on base, total bases, men left on base, chase rate, and hitting into ground-ball double plays.
In addition to a 30% drop in run production per game, and a shocking 54.7% decrease in home-run rate, the Cardinals’ average of extra-base hits per game fell 18 percent, their sacrifice flies per game declined 54.8%, and their average stolen bases per game plummeted by 47%.
Per wRC+, the Redbirds’ overall offensive performance dipped by 17.4 percent from March-April to May. That encompasses the declines in power ball, small ball, and just standard baseball. There was no style that worked.
When there are damaging downfalls in on-base percentage and slugging, and the manufacturing plant isn’t forwarding many runs, and the timely hitting is so terrible … Well, congratulations. This is a team that ran out of ways to score a sufficient amount of runs in May, and there was simply no way to overcome that.
The unfortunate thing about all of this? The St. Louis pitchers gave their teammates the opportunity to win four, five or perhaps six more games in May. But the offense failed repeatedly.
The upside? In June, the offense should thaw out some, especially now that Chaim Bloom is trying to shake up the roster. If the Cardinals can continue to pitch well in June, their hitters should be able to pick up the pace now that Bloom and Marmol want to try and put more MLB-caliber pieces in the lineup.
With the Cardinals promoting catcher Jimmy Crooks and left fielder Nelson Velazquez from Triple A Memphis, is that enough to juice this offense? That remains to be seen, especially if manager Marmol continues to waste so many at-bats on Pages and Scott, and I don’t think he’ll try to do that. But Marmol will let us know just by filling in the lineup card.
OTHER STUFF
– MVP of May: Jordan Walker, who led the team for the month in batting average, homers, slugging, runs batted in, doubles, adjusted runs created and wOBA. Walker was 58 percent better than league average offensively in May. His turnaround has been the best part of the Cards season to date, and yes, he’s for real. Good lawd, just look at his reduced strikeout total even when he’s having a few quiet days at the plate.
– Best Rookie in May: JJ Wetherholt. Look, I don’t care if his batting average is on the low side, and his overall month (offensively) was slightly below average. Even as he continues to learn the tricks of the trade – and figuring out what those wily MLB pitchers are doing to take advantage of his inexperience, Wetherholt’s talent shines through, and there’s no question whatsoever about his baseball aptitude and his ability to self diagnose his own swing, and changes that should be made. Even when JJ is scuffling a little, he never at any point in May lost his skill for drawing walks and getting on base. He had a fine .342 OBP in May. And Wetherholt’s defense at second base is exceptional. He leads all NL Rookies with 2.5 WAR, and ranks in the top two or three in several other relevant categories. And unlike some other NL rookies who get to play half of their games in joke home ballparks that give hitters a huge advantage, Wetherholt is playing his home games in a yard that’s tough on hitters.
The Cardinals’ 1900 Cy Young Award for May: What the heck am I talking about with the name of this award? Well, the actual Cy Young pitched for the Cardinals in 1900, so I wanted to establish that connection. The annual Cy Young awards go to the best pitcher in the American League and the National League. The Cardinals’ 1900 Cy Young Award goes to the team’s best pitcher. It can be a monthly award and an annual award. For May, the 1900 Cy goes to Dustin May. It’s great to see him throwing so well. And he should only get better.
Most Disappointing Hitter In May: Pages and Scott are in a separate category of disappointment and it would be too easy just to pile on. My selection is third baseman-DH Nolan Gorman. In May he batted .192, and put up a slugging percentage (.295) that was the third-lowest monthly slug in a MLB career that began in May, 2022. In his last 20 games in May, Gorman hit .177, had a barely discernible slugging percentage (.226), struck out 36 percent of the time, and had one extra-base hit and four RBIs in 72 plate appearances. Gorman can’t even power up against right-handed pitchers these days and is having his worst career year against them. Where is the power?
Most Entertaining Newcomer: Bryan Torres … 10 years in the minors and he finally made it to the show in May. And you have to love the quality of his at-bats and his bat-to-ball skills. I just don’t know if manager Oli Marmol can find enough at-bats for him. And I don’t know if there’s room for both Torres and Velazquez on the 26-man roster when Lars Nootbaar returns from the IL … and Nathan Church will be coming back from the IL as well. Because Torres and Velazquez are out of minor-league options, the Cardinals risk losing to a waiver claim should Bloom try to send one (or both) to Memphis.
– Most Fun Story: “Tarps Off” of course. The baseball players from Stephen F. Austin’s club team came to Busch Stadium, set off a national ballpark craze that’s still spreading – and the fellas reawakened the ballpark in St. Louis. Thank you, men.
– Most Overlooked Story: The only real bullpen negative in May was closer Riley O’Brien, who absorbed a 6.30 ERA during the month because of a deteriorating sinker. To expand this a bit, O’Brien didn’t allow an earned run in his first 13 relief appearances of the season and punched out a 33.3 percent strikeout rate. But in his last 12 appearances O’Brien has a 6.75 ERA and a 21% strikeout rate. There’s been a big drop in his whiff-swing rate. This development continues to be ignored by St. Louis baseball media, and I don’t know why. It’s just really odd. But manager Oli Marmol has given O’Brien lots of extra rest and that should help the reliever rebound.
Thanks for reading ...
--Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.