The St. Louis Blues are 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Under almost any other set of circumstances, that would be cause for genuine optimism. A team catching fire at the right moment, making a push, reminding the league it is still a threat. Instead, it is a complication.
The Blues head to Calgary on Wednesday night to begin the final leg of a road trip that will also take them through Vancouver, and the inconvenient truth hanging over every win they collect is this: at 27-30-10, St. Louis currently holds an 8.5% chance at the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft according to Tankathon.com. Every regulation victory nudges that number in the wrong direction. Every point lost by Calgary and Vancouver does the same. The standings race, for this particular road trip, runs in reverse.
Calgary enters Wednesday at 26-34-7, having gone 2-7-1 over its last ten games. The Flames are actively falling, sitting 31st in the league with 59 points and a 13.6% chance at the top pick. Two nights later in Vancouver, the Blues will face a Canucks team that has been even worse with a 21-38-8, 3-5-2 in their last 10, and holding a 25.1% lottery probability that makes them one of the most likely destinations for the first overall selection. The Blues, by contrast, have been playing their way out of that conversation at precisely the wrong time.
None of this is to suggest Blues Head Coach Jim Montgomery should tell his players to ease up. That is not how professional hockey works, and it is not how organizations build cultures that matter. The Blues’ recent run with wins over Seattle, San Jose, Anaheim, Carolina, Edmonton, and Minnesota over the past few weeks have been built on the kind of competitive habits the franchise wants to establish in its younger players.
Dalibor Dvorsky is developing game-to-game. Jimmy Snuggerud, with 35 points in 55 games, has looked like a legitimate piece of the future on the right wing. Robert Thomas continues to be the most reliable player on the roster, leading the team with 44 points while posting a plus-11 that stands apart in a lineup otherwise riddled with negative differentials. These are players worth developing the right way, and winning is part of that.
But the draft context does not disappear simply because the hockey has been better.
Blues General Manager Doug Armstrong is preparing for what will be his final offseason before Alexander Steen takes over as general manager, understands what a top pick in this class could mean for an organization that is still in the middle stages of a rebuild. The Blues have real pieces with Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, but the center of the lineup behind Thomas is still a question, and a generational talent at the top of the draft would accelerate the timeline considerably. Dvorsky has done well up to this point, but another top-two forward piece added to that mix would certainly help push the retool to another level.
Calgary and Vancouver cannot afford to think about any of that. The Flames are playing out a season that has produced the lowest goal total in the league with 165 goals, 2.46 per game, and watching their draft lottery odds build with each loss.
On the ice Wednesday, the matchup tilts toward St. Louis in almost every category. The Blues have been the better team for over a month, and Calgary’s offense offers little to fear for a defensive group that, when engaged, can be difficult to crack. Joel Hofer has been the more reliable option in net over the second half of the season, and the organizational commitment to him as the long-term starter is clear, with Jordan Binnington’s UFA status in 2027 adding its own storyline heading into the coming offseason.
The Blues will almost certainly be favored to win on Wednesday. They may well win in Vancouver on Saturday, too. And when they do, the draft lottery board will shift, however slightly, away from the outcome that would most benefit the organization’s long-term future.
That is the uncomfortable math of playing good hockey in a bad season. The Blues have figured out how to win again. Whether that is entirely good news depends on how you are reading the standings.
Puck drop from the Scotiabank Saddledome is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. CDT.