In scanning several reputable projection systems to see how the 2026 forecasts envisioned Cardinals rookie JJ Wetherholt, I was surprised by what I found. The numbers were kind of blah. Not bad, kind of good, but nothing that would leave stars flashing in my head.
The projection models used for this sampling were PECOTA, Steamer, ZiPS, ATC, The Bat X, and OOPSY.
Batting average: high of .253, and a low of .236.
On-base percentage: high of .341, with a low of .310.
Slugging percentage: .391 (high) and .351 (low.)
Generally, these previsions have JJ with around 11 home runs and knocking in between 55 and 65 runs. There are also prophecies of a healthy walk rate and impressively low strikeout rate.
The most optimistic outlook was presented by Steamer, which, per wRC+, has Wetherholt finishing 10 percent above league average offensively. The cloudiest and more ominous forecasts have Wetherholt finishing below league average: 11% under (The Bat) and 7% short (PECOTA).
On the other side of this baseball meteorology, Wetherholt has been a popular tout for the NL Rookie of the Year award. The pundits like him. But even if JJ performs up to the best-case scenario – 10 percent above league average offensively – I doubt this would get him the top NL rookie prize.
As a fan, I was disappointed by this uninspiring display of soothsaying before Wetherholt’s rookie campaign. He is, after all, the No. 3 overall major-league prospect at Baseball America in the runup to the regular season.
As a pragmatic critter, I also know this: these forecasts are about as reliable as the breathless predictions over the St. Louis weather.
And that works both ways. I fished around for some examples.
OVERHYPED MLB PROSPECTS WHO WEREN’T ALL THAT
– Before the 2004 season, the No. 3 overall MLB prospect was Greg Miller, a lefty pitcher for the Dodgers. He suffered a shoulder injury and never pitched in the majors. Pitching prospects who were rated beyond Miller that year included Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez and some dude named Wainwright.
– Before the 2007 season, the No. 3 prospect was Angels’ infielder Brandon Wood. He went onto play 272 major-league games and batted .186 with a .513 OPS and way too many strikeouts. Wood was rated above other hitting prospects that included Justin Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Pence. And pitching prospects that were ranked behind Wood included Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw.
NO. 3 PROSPECTS WHO LIVED UP TO THE HYPE
I went back to 2000, and the list of No. 3 preseason prospects – where Wetherholt is now – included Paul Skenes, Julio Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, Jason Heyward and Felix Hernandez. Several others turned out well.
And there've been a bunch of guys who exceeded preseason prognostications going into their rookie seasons. Players who won their league Rookie of the Year award.
Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin won it last year, and he wasn’t on the Braves’ list of top 20 prospects. In 2024, starting pitcher Luis Gil wasn’t on any preseason Top 100 lists but he was rushed to the majors after the Yankees lost their ace Gerrit Cole to a season-ending elbow injury. Gill stepped in and gave the NYY 152 innings and a 15-7 record. St. Louisan Devin Williams was a nondescript reliever in the minor leagues before emerging in the Milwaukee bullpen in 2020 to win the NL Rookie of the Year on the strength of an 0.33 ERA.
If the forecasts for Wetherholt are underwhelming, so what? And if JJ being the No. 3 prospects means he’s headed for a great rookie season, well, maybe. Or maybe not. Because we have historical examples that show us the volatility of expectations.
Just play ball. Call me Fredibird but I sincerely believe Wetherholt will have a strong rookie season for the Cardinals. I won’t put a number on it, but he’s a natural-born hitter, a smart hitter, a confident hitter, a contact hitter, a versatile hit-to-all-fields hitter. And JJ has more power than we probably assume.
One factor for Wetherholt is his baseball health. As Craig Goldstein noted at Baseball Prospectus:
“Wetherholt makes excellent swing decisions and has above-average, if not optimized, power. He’ll work the power alleys effectively and should rack up extra-base hits, if not home runs. One of the most important things will be staying on the field, as various injuries have nagged him dating back to his college days.”
BIRD BYTES
1. Jordan Walker is completely lost at the plate, and his confidence is drained, and he’s incapable of grinding for competitive at-bats. There’s no fight.
2. In STL’s 3-1 win Thursday over the Mets, Walker was 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. He struck out in the first to strand Nolan Gorman at third. In his second at-bat, with Gorman at second base, Walker struck out again. Walker’s third strikeout came after Gorman walked. His Walker’s final at-bat was a routine ground-out.
3. Another pitiful day in the batter’s box left Walker with a .200 average and .450 OPS in 32 plate appearances this spring. All six of his hits were singles.
4. Walker has a 34.3 percent strikeout rate in his 10 games this spring. In six games this month, Walker is 3 for 19 (.158) with nine strikeouts and a walk. His March-only strikeout rate is a frightening 45 percent. And in his 10 games, 13 of 19 batted balls put in play by Walker were hit on the ground – giving him a startling 68.4% GB rate.
5. If spring training meant anything, the Cardinals starting outfield early in the regular season would have Nelson Velazquez in left field, Nathan Church in center and Joshua Baez in right. But we know how that goes. Baez has already been assigned to Memphis, which was the right call. No need for him to skip the Triple A level entirely.
6. And while I know it’s “only” spring training, the Cardinals’ outfield situation is so uninspiring, they have only two job-candidate outfielders with them in Florida who can hit: Nelson Velazquez and Nathan Church. Jose Fermin, Victor Scott and Walker are a combined 14 for 83 (.169) with a 24% strikeout rate.
7. Thomas Saggese will reenter the bidding for an outfield role when his work for Team Italy in the WBC is complete. Saggese is 0 for 6 with two strikeouts in WBC play. Before he departed Jupiter for the WBC, Saggese went 3 for 9 with two walks for the Cardinals.
8. And now for something positive: Nelson Velasquez is still booming. He’s still a great story in Jupiter 2026. Thursday, he powered the Cards to a 2-1 lead with a two-run homer in the first. The blow gave Velazquez three home runs, a double and five RBIs in 32 plate appearances this spring. His across the board slash line in Grapefruit League action is .333/.438/.704. That’s a 1.142 OPS.
9. Velazquez is using his fine-tuned and focused plate discipline to set up pitchers. This spring he’s walked five times with only two strikeouts. His walk rate is a superb 15.6 percent.
10. After getting acclimated during a quiet February, Velazquez has heated up and fueled the St. Louis offense during his first six games in March. This month he’s 7 for 17 (.412) and deposited all three of his homers. The Big V has a .500 OBP and a .941 slug for the month. Velazquez has homered every 9 at-bats in his 10 exhibition games as a Cardinal.
11. Nolan Gorman is doing well, much better than assumed. So it’s time to take notice. On Thursday, Gorman busted Mets pitcher Sean Manea for a triple and double and later drew a walk. Gorman’s batting average (.222) ain’t much to look at … but he’s doing other things in Florida that we should look at.
12. Gorman has matching percentages in walk rate (13%) and strikeout rate (13%). His on-base percentage has risen to .323. His slug is up to .556. His OPS is a commendable .879. For the spring season, Gorman and Velazquez are tied for the team lead in extra-base hits with four, and Gorman is third with 15 total bases.
12. Among St. Louis lineup regulars this spring, the top four leaders in slugging percentage are Baez (.762), Velazquez (.704), Wetherholt (.579) and Gorman (.556).
13. Gorman and Walker are often paired together as “twin” enigmas for their horrible plate-discipline histories and a junkyard pile of strikeouts. But we’re seeing a difference this spring: Gorman is improving and Walker is not. I don’t give a damn if it’s spring training. When you’re coming off two consecutive seasons of extremely disappointing offense, you either get better (Gorman) or you don’t (Walker.) And there’s never a bad time to start doing things well after wasting a lot of time doing things poorly. Gorman gets a golf clap.
14. Thumbs up to the starters: even with the occasional glitch, St. Louis starting pitchers are doing a nice job this spring. Michael McGreevy suppressed the Mets on Thursday, allowing four hits, a walk and one earned run in his 5 innings of nifty work. McGreevy lowered his spring ERA to 2.70.
15. As a group, St. Louis starters have a 3.88 ERA this spring that ranks 9th overall among the 30 MLB teams – and is 4th among NL sides. STL starters have yielded the lowest walk rate (2.02 per 9 IP) among the 30 sets of MLB starters, and their K-BB ratio (4.31) is second to the Yankees. Their WHIP (1.08) is sixth best.
16. The six Cardinal pitchers who are vying for rotation spots collectively have a 3.43 ERA and have done a swell job of limiting walks and damage. The six, of course, are Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Richard Fitts and Kyle Leahy.
I’m out of words.
Thanks for reading…
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.