Going into Thursday’s game in Steeltown, Cardinals rookie JJ Wetherholt had 30 big-league games to his name.
The 31st game looked a lot like the first 30. Fortunately for the Redbirds, JJ is just getting started. As first impressions go, the dude is a smash hit. He’s a circuit breaker.
Of course – him being JJ Wetherholt and all – the St. Louis freshman opened Thursday’s game and dug in for his first career showdown against the menacing Pirates ace Paul Skenes.
No prob.
Wetherholt blasted a 414-foot solo home run. The victimized baseball left the bat screaming through the Western Pennsylvania sky at 106.8 miles per hour. That’s seven home runs in 117 major-league at-bats, which means Wetherholt is going ozone every 16.7 at-bats.
Wow.
I genuinely believed Wetherholt would adapt to big-league pitching without experiencing substantial difficulty or prolonged torment. JJ had a quiet spell earlier this month, but there was no cause for alarm, and all hitters go through it.
My expectations for JJ Rookie were pretty high, but a little more than a month into his career he’s a better and more complete player than I anticipated.
One exciting development (of many) is seeing Wetherholt find his power-hitting stroke. That left-handed swing …and a body in perfect sync and rhythm. It’s Jim Edmonds, maybe Gerorge Brett. There is just something especially beautiful about a stylish left-handed hitter launching a home run. And JJ fits.
Stat: Wetherholt is on pace to hit 38 home runs this season.
Conclusion: He’s a special player.
I do not hesitate in saying this, even though I know I’ll receive unnecessary lectures on “small sample” sizes. But talent is talent. And Wetherholt is an obvious talent. He appears to be an elite talent.
So if what we’ve seen so far is a “small sample,” I wouldn’t disagree. It definitely is a small sample.
But I have another way of framing his first month in The Show.
This particular small sample is a sample of the greatness we can expect to witness as Wetherholt gains experience, learns more, discovers attack points on pitchers, and goes next level with his refined combination of talent and intellect.
I have even more faith after seeing JJ tested for the first time on the big-league circuit. I wanted to see how he would handle his first career “slump.”
Beginning April 8, JJ went 2 for 20 over a five-game stretch, but much of that was shaped by unfortunate luck, as evidenced by his .118 average on balls in play.
OK, so how would the rookie respond to his first small-dip of a downturn? I’ll just type in the numbers from his last 14 games through Wednesday. Except for my mention of his latest homer, these stats do not include all details of his latest game.
From April 14 through 29:
– .288 average
– .415 on-base pct
– .654 slugging pct
– 1.069 OPS
– 194 wRC+
That wRC+ means Wetherholt was 94 percent above league average offensively over the 14 games.
Continuing …
The 14 games also included:
– 4 doubles
– 5 homers
– 6 walks
– 6 hit by pitches
– 14 runs scored
– 10 runs batted in
– A strikeout rate less than 19%
– .429 batting average with runners in scoring position
– .750 average with a homer and four RBIs on six plate appearances in high-leverage.
Wetherholt was strumming his bat again Thursday, making more hit music in his hometown. His day featured two hits in four at-bats, the picturesque home run, two runs scored, an RBI, and a walk.
Wetherholt ignited the Cardinals to a 10-5 thumping of the Pirates to complete a four-game sweep.
The Cardinals are 18-13. They are 11-5 on the road. They won six of their first 10 series. They are 6-2 in one-run games. In what was supposed to be a down year, the Cardinals are a happy surprise.
JJ Wetherholt? He is not a surprise.
Let’s update his season stats after Wetherholt starred in his 31st major-league game. He’s batted.256, reached base at a rate of .378, slugged .479, canvassed an .857 OPS, drilled five doubles and seven homers, knocked home 16 runs, scored 27 runs, swiped four bases without getting caught, walked 17 times, gotten nailed by seven pitches … and impressed everyone for being such a jolly good fellow.
I mean, come on. Wetherholt’s brief little 2 for 20 disruption was supposed to corrode his confidence, make him a little jumpy and anxious, and shove him onto a hard trail of mediocrity.
Well, not this bro. Not this 23-year old leadoff man. Not with this package of talent that qualifies as above average in offense, defense and baserunning. Unflappable. Indomitable.
Wether-jolt.
As in jolting an entire franchise.
“He’s had an incredible season,” Cards manager Oli Marmol told us on KMOX earlier this week. “I think we’ve talked quite a bit about his success early, not only offensively, but defensively, on the bases, his demeanor, what he brings to the club.
“There are a lot of positives there, especially for a young kid. He’s gone about his business as if he’s been here for several years, which is cool to see.
“That, his understanding of the game and his hunger is a great combination. He’s confident enough of who he is as a person and a player, but never comfortable enough to not want to see what’s next.”
Marmol isn’t just hyping his player because that’s what managers do. His observations of Wetherholt are on point.
JJ’S PLACE IN THE BIRDHOUSE
Our friend Rick Horton said it best on KMOX early during Thursday’s game at PNC Park:
“JJ Wetherholt is driving this offense.”
Horton’s statement will get no pushback from anyone who pays reasonably close attention to this team. These stats I’m about to share do not include all of his Thursday day-shift work. So just about all of this was applicable through Wednesday.
1. Firestarter: When JJ has gotten on base this season, he’s come around to score 42 percent of the time, the highest rate among Cardinals and the 10th-best rate in the National League. He has a .414 on-base percentage as the Cards first batter of a game. He has a .400 OBP as the Cards first batter in an inning. He’s the fuel and the engine.
2. Good timing: When the Cardinals need a big hit, the rookie is ready. He went into Thursday with a .300 average and .829 OPS with runners in scoring position. He was batting .333 with a 1.016 OPS with RISP and two outs. He was hitting .368 with a 1.218 OPS in “close and late” situations. And in high-leverage spots, JJ was batting .304 with an. 835 OPS. He added more shine on an overcast day in Pittsburgh.
3. Total value: Wetherholt leads the Cardinals with 1.4 Wins Above Replacement. The WAR metric accounts for hitting, defense, and running the bases. He’s doing it all. And doing it well. As of Thursday morning, only 12 MLB hitters had more WAR than Wetherholt.
4. Money man: Wetherholt leads the Cardinals in Win Probability Added. The WPA metric measures how much a player’s specific actions changed his team's chances of winning the game. WPA doesn’t give credit for driving in a run when your team is up by seven runs or down by eight runs. WPA is all about a hitter's performance when his team needs a lift in a tight game. I’ll have more about Wethertholt and WAR later in the Review and you’ll want to check it out.
5. Nothing “average” about him: In his first 168 MLB plate appearances through Wednesday, Wetherholt had a 134 wRC+ that translates into 34% above league average offensively. Only three “true” MLB rookies could top that. But none of the rookies can top his defense. Speaking of that …
6. Saving runs on defense: Defensively this play-making second baseman leads the Cardinals (all positions) in Outs Above Average. And he’s one of the best fielders in the majors among all positions. Before Thursday he was tied for the MLB lead among rookies in the FanGraphs’ composite defensive rating.
7. A heads-up runner: JJ has an impressive extra-bases-taken rate of 55 percent. That’s 12% higher than the league average.
8: The whole works: Among Cardinals, going into Thursday Wetherholt led in runs scored, was second in on-base rate and slugging percentage, second in homers, second in hits, second in walks, second in most times getting on base and third in OPS. Through Wednesday, Wetherholt had scored or driven in 27.5 percent of his team’s runs.
9. He’s no slug – but can slug: JJ’s updated batting average on contact this season is .322. His slugging percentage on contact is 1.042. He’s a superb contact hitter who has struck out in only 18 percent of his plate appearances, and his walk-strikeout ratio is the sixth best by a major-league hitter.
JJ’S ALL AROUND PLAY
Statcast has a “value” rating that goes from 1 to 100, with 100 being the best.
* Wetherholt’s Batting Run Value is in the 78th percentile.
* His Baserunning Value is in the 90th percentile.
* And his Fielding Run Value is in the 98th percentile.
If offense is the “least” of Wetherholt’s strengths, that’s quite a testament to his all-purpose talent. Wetherholt’s Batting Run Value means he’s better than 78 percent of the hitters in the majors.
Here’s another example of Wethertholt’s all-around excellence. As of Thursday morning, there were only four National League players who were ranked in the top 18 of the NL in the three primary skill sets: offense, defense and baserunning.
Elly De La Cruz (Reds)
Otto Lopez (Marlins)
Nico Hoerner (Cubs)
JJ Wetherholt (Cards)
Of the four, Wetherholt is the youngest player and the only rookie. He’s played 31 big-league games. The other three gentlemen have played an average of 495 MLB games.
JJ’S VALUE IS TRULY ELEVATED
As of Thursday morning, Wetherholt ranked fourth among all NL position players in Win Probability Added. I can’t stress enough how impressive this is. Here’s something even better.
There’s a more prominent version of WPA. It’s called Championship WPA, or cWPA for short. I know this stuff is gibberish to some of you, but I wouldn’t present this information unless I believed it’s meaningful.
As of Thursday morning, the young Wetherholt was third among NL position players in cWPA, and that’s an excellent indicator of his full impact.
How do I explain cWPA? We can get lost in the ‘championship’ part of the metric. But think of it as a leverage barometer. For JJ to be third in the NL in cWPA, it tells us that he isn’t padding stats in garbage time. He’s doing much of his damage when the outcome of a game could go either way. We may be in April, but he’s playing October baseball.
Including Thursday’s game, six of Wetherholt’s hits have put the Cardinals in the lead, two others tied the game, and one delivered a walk-off win.
Five of JJ’s home runs either tied the game or gave the Cardinals the lead.
No empty calories here.
It’s one thing for a 23-year old rookie to have a higher championship WPA than just about every National League veteran. But he just comes through with big moment after big moment. The takeaway on WPA and cWPA? Wether-jolt’s swings carry more clout than the average hitter – or even a good hitter.
ALREADY A TOP LEADOFF MAN
Among 19 major-league leadoff hitters that had at least 90 plate appearances in the No. 1 spot through Wednesday, Wetherholt has made his way into the top five.
In that group of 19 leadoff men, JJ through Wednesday was 2nd in runs, 3rd in OBP, 6th in slugging, 5th in OPS 5th in wRC+, 5th in wOBA, 5th in RBIs, 6th in homers, 6th in walks, 1st in hit-by-pitches, and 6th in stolen bases.
He certainly looks confident and comfortable in the leadoff spot.
Just ask Paul Skenes about that.
COOL HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
I love this note. Among Cardinals hitters in franchise history who were no older than 23 when they began their career with the Redbirds, Wetherholt’s start in 2026 truly stands out.
I looked at the most WPA by a Cardinal hitter (23 or younger) in his first 30 games with the franchise. This does not include hitters who came to the Cardinals at a young age after starting their careers elsewhere. Example: Fernando Tatis Sr.
As measured by WPA, here are the top 11 starts for first-time Cardinals at the beginning of the season – covering the
first 30 games. These names are ranked in order:
– Johnny Mize, 1936
– Stu Martin, 1936
– Stan Musial, 1941
– Jim Bottomley, 1922
– Joe Cunningham, 1954
– JJ Wetherholt, 2026
– Willie McGee, 1982
– Cliff Heathcote, 1918
– Albert Pujols, 2001
– Keith Hernandez, 1974.
THE FINAL WORD
And it’s about a single word.
How would I describe Wetherholt if given only one word to get it done?
My choice: Omnipresent.
Present in all places at all times.
That works for me. “Omnipresent” sums up the steady, jarring, relentless pressure that he puts on the opposition with his hitting defense, baserunning, rally-starting moments, big moments, so many big moments – packed into his first 31 games. JJ isn’t just playing the game; he’s doing all that he can, in every way, to take control of games.
Thanks for reading …
Please pardon my typos …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.