Game Information
#23 Saint Louis Billikens (25-3) vs Duquesne Dukes (16-12)
Time: 7pm CT Saturday
How to watch: ESPN+, FanDuel Sports Network, KTVI-TV (Channel 2)
DraftKings Odds
Spread: SLU -15.5
Total: 160.5
KenPom Projection
SLU 88, Duquesne 71
The Saint Louis University Billikens look for a big bounceback effort on Saturday night when they tip off against the Duquesne Dukes at Chaifetz Arena.
The Bills got smoked at Dayton this past Tuesday night, trailing by as many as 25 points in the first half.
The game continued a concerning trend where it appears other teams have figured out how to effectively defend SLU.
The Billikens are getting defended very hard on the perimeter, so they are not getting nearly as many clean looks from 3 as they got earlier in the season.
The Bills want to get to the rim, but other than Kellen Thames and Dion Brown, success in that area has been hard to come by lately. If the opponent has an effective defender that can protect the rim while the other four players are disrupting the Billikens on the perimeter, SLU just doesn’t appear to have answers offensively right now.
At this point, opponents know that the Billikens are rarely if ever going to take a mid-range shot because Josh Schertz’s philosophy is he wants every shot to be a layup, dunk, or a 3. But has that philosophy become too predictable where it’s hurting SLU because teams are only defending the rim and the 3-point line?
I’m not sure the answer to that question, but it’s up to Schertz to figure out the solution to the Bills’ struggles - particularly early in games where slow starts have become the norm.
Until the Billikens start to look more like themselves offensively, I think there is great value on the under in their games. The season-long metrics still have SLU as an elite offensive team, which is resulting in high totals from the sportsbooks.
But with the Billikens struggling right now, lower-scoring games have been happening with four of the last five games going under. The only game that went over during this stretch was the Rhode Island game, and that had more to do with the Rams and their great offensive night.
So I think the under is a very strong play for Saturday night. The first meeting with Duquesne went under, and the Dukes have seen 10 of their last 12 games go under the total as well.
Pick: Under 160.5 at -105 on DraftKings (bet to 155)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every week on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer