As I write this on Monday afternoon, the St. Louis Cardinals are 38 days away from taking the field at Busch Stadium for their 2026 regular-season opener.
There’s a lot to sort out between now and then, and I have some preliminary thoughts. My plan: five items for your consideration today, and I’ll come back with one item or more each day through Friday. I will keep these check-ins coming throughout spring training.
1. Now that it’s officially here, are Cardinals fans warming, even slowly, to the idea of a rebuild?
Look, everyone who still cares about Cardinals baseball wants a contending team that fits into the esteemed franchise transition of sustained, high-level success. But that’s not possible right now. My sense – and I could be wrong – is that more and more Cards fans will come around on three points: (A) the rebuild was absolutely necessary; (B) the season will have some entertainment, because it’s fun to watch a young, developing and energetic team; and (C) these players aren’t to blame for the franchise decline, and president of Chaim Bloom is off to an impressive start on the reconstruction project.
Bloom and at least some of these players will be responsible for the franchise making a comeback, so why not give them a show of support? Fans have the right to do what they want with their time and money and loyalty. But that really isn’t the end of the discussion.
Will Busch Stadium become yet another vacant place of business in downtown St. Louis? If so, the national sports media will endlessly mock and ridicule the notion of STL being a great baseball town. Can’t be “Baseball Heaven” if the scene looks like “Baseball Hell” just because the last three seasons were a big drop in quality and pleasure from the first 27 seasons of phenomenal success under current ownership.
Is that unfair? Sure. Absolutely. But the so-called national media – a long time ago – began viewing the “Best Fans In Baseball” meme with considerable disdain and disgust – and cannot wait to pile on Cards fans at every turn. Supporters of other teams will love the chance to make fun of Cardinal fans.
2. JJ Wetherholt: is he the next true franchise star?
Well, Masyn Winn belongs in that conversation, but he’d be among the first to say it’s important for him to improve (a lot) offensively. As for Wetherholt, the top prospect and a potential NL Rookie of the Year, let’s turn it over to a couple of important guys in the Cardinals’ hierarchy …
Chaim Bloom: “You see what he does on the field. He makes some really difficult things look really easy. He's certainly met every challenge that has been thrown his way so far, especially at the plate.
“What's impressive about him to be on that is really just how he handles himself. Obviously, he hasn't been tested at the highest level with this, but when you look at how people gravitate to him, it is something that it's very authentic. It's very natural.
“He has a lot of poise. He has a lot of energy, a lot of drive, but it's not something that feels manufactured or fake. And that's really impressive, just the way he goes about his business, the maturity, the purpose, the intent with which he goes about what he does every day.
That, along with the talent, that's a pretty rare combination and it's exciting.”
Manager Oli Marmol: “This is a guy we're all excited about … his overall game is pretty elite and the most impressive thing is his personality and overall demeanor and how he handles himself. It's pretty impressive. This is, especially for his age, the way he carries himself, the way he goes about his work, the way he communicates is something that I've really enjoyed. You put that together with his skill set and it's pretty neat.”
Does that sound like a star who is about to take the stage? Yes, it does. Talent, charisma, flair, hard work, striving for perfection, a natural leadership element and a desire to be a great teammate. That sure seems like star material.
3. How will the starting pitching eventually shake out? Barring injury, who will be in the season-opening rotation?
Sorry, but I don’t want to answer that right now. Why? For a good reason: there will be an actual competition for those five jobs, and that’s a positive change.
Think back to last season. The Cards’ starting-pitching depth was so pathetically thin, management pretty much had to stay with the same group for much of the season. And here was the problem with that:
In games started by Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde and Andre Pallante, the Cardinals won only 31 of 82 games for a sickly .378 winning percentage. In games started by other Cardinal hurlers, the team’s winning percentage was .588. As for their personal records, the three failed starters went a combined 17-36 for a .320 winning percentage. The collective earned-run average for Mikolas, Pallante and Fedde was 5.11. They were pounded for a combined average of 1.38 home runs per nine innings. Hitters pounded Mikolas for a .492 slugging percentage, slugged .439 vs. Fedde and disturbed Pallante for a .431 slug.
And with rookie starter Michael McGreevy ready to take his place in the big-league rotation, he stayed parked at Triple A Memphis because John Mozeliak, then the president of baseball ops, wouldn’t pull Fedde from the rotation. Mozeliak was desperate to see Fedde turn around a hideous performance and reestablish his trade value. Let’s just say that Mozeliak’s plan failed; Fedde was splattered for a 13.25 ERA in his final five starts for St. Louis. And McGreevy – a much better pitcher who will be part of the Cards future – was kept waiting as Fedde repeatedly got blown up by hitters.
That’s why I’m not rushing into the prediction market to identify my choices for STL’s five rotation spots. I think it’s safe to say the first three slots (in some order) will be claimed by Dustin May, Matthew Liberatore and McGreevy. After that, we’ll see Kyle Leahy, Richard Fitts and Pallante slinging for the remaining two spots. Unless, of course, the Cardinals go with a six-man rotation – which would make some sense.
The starting-pitching depth extends to the next dudes in line: There’s offseason acquisition Hunter Dobbins, when he’s ready to return from a torn knee ligament. There’s lefty Quinn Mathews, Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2024. There’s lefty Brycen Mautz, who was named the Cardinals’ minor league pitcher of the year for his outstanding, All-Star quality work at Double A Springfield. Tink Hence – the eternal prospect – is the wild card in this. But other candidates will likely emerge as the 2026 season plays out.
4. As it stands right now, what is the weakest part of the 2026 Cardinals?
That’s an easy answer for me: the offense.
Last season the Cardinals ranked 12th among the 15 National League teams in runs, were 12th in OPS, and finished 14th in home runs, slugging, percentage and isolated power. The group of St. Louis batters were 12th in walk rate, didn’t do a good job of getting on base enough, and ranked 13th among the 15 NL sides in OPS when hitting with runners in scoring position.
What about speed? According to Statcast the Cardinals ranked 26th in the majors and 12th in the NL for average sprint speed as a team. FanGraphs ranked the Cards at 11th among 15 NL teams in base-running performance.
For the second straight season, the Cardinals swiped fewer than 100 bases, and only two National League teams have fewer steals since MLB changed the rules at the start of 2023 to make it a lot easier to steal bags.
So let’s recap: the 2025 Cardinals didn’t draw enough walks, had a mediocre on-base performance, were very low on power, struggled with runners in scoring position, and weren’t much of a threat at stealing bases.
And as much as we the media talk about how difficult it is for the Cardinals to hit at the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium, fact is the Redbirds were even worse offensively in 2025 – ranking 13th in the NL in the following categories: runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, isolated power, homers, walk rate, steals, OPS and wRC+.
The 2025 Cardinals were also one of the three-worst teams in the National League in offense generated against right-handed pitching.
Three hitters in last year’s lineup – Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado – are gone. Contreras and Donovan were very good offensively overall, and Arenado performed slightly above average against left-handed pitching in 2025.
So with just about every area of this offense down 2025, and two of their most respected hitters out the door, why would we expect it to be better in 2026, in the first year of a full rebuild?
Looking at the projections over the weekend, at least two forecasting systems, PECOTA and Clay Davenport, have the Cardinals scoring the fewest number of runs in the majors for 2026. FanGraphs is only slightly better, showing the Cardinals at 27th in runs.
Looking at individual-hitter projections, there wasn’t much that jumped out in a positive way. Examples: improvement by Jordan Walker, but nothing spectacular. Twenty-five homers from Nolan Gorman, but with a poor batting average, on-base percentage and strikeout rate. Good numbers from Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera – the forecast has both guys down from last season. And so on.
The consensus projections aren’t vibing on JJ Wetherholt in his rookie season: 444 at-bats, .248 batting average, .332 on-base percentage, .374 slugging percentage, .706 OPS and 11 home runs. Is that terrible? No. But is it less than I would have predicted? Yes. (And I believe those projections on JJ will be incorrect.)
So how do the Cardinals have more thump and pump in 2026? Well they’ll need a few surprises … positive surprises … and that includes impact from top outfield prospect Josh Baez, assuming he graduates to the majors in time to make a difference in ‘26. I’ll write more about Baez on Tuesday.
One factor I thought about after doing my video: some of the 2025 numbers came about, at least in part because of injuries to Donovan, Ivan Herrera and Lars Nootbaar. Had the three been healthier, more physically capable and more available, the offense would have had more bite in ‘25. But, injuries are part of baseball … and that will also be the case (most likely) in 2026.
5. OK, will any “surprise” candidates emerge to boost the offense?
That’s a tough one, because I don’t want to rule anyone out. But I also know how the hype can blow in and out with the spring-training wind. There was a lot of excitement in camp when the Cardinals let it be known they wanted to look at utility infielder Thomas Saggese in the outfield – yes, even in … GASP! … center field … OMG!
Well, yeah, that’s the kind of thing teams do in spring training. You take a look. The look is free. The look is without consequences. Let Saggese run around out there. So what? All joshing aside, Saggese is an athlete. He has very good speed. Quick feet. If you're looking for an infielder who can be also repurposed into an outfield piece, we've got a familiar for you: Tommy Edman.
I don’t know if Saggese can be a so-called surprise and exceed expectations offensively, but if he can be used in a part-time outfield role, it should add at least a little something to his value. Because his utility service would include the outfield and the infield. That’s a nice option for the bench. But what's the surprise? That the Cardinals would work with Saggese to learn the outfield? Why would that be a surprise? Let me put this another way: JOHN MOZELIAK DOESN'T WORK HERE ANYMORE. Chaim Bloom and his associates think differently. They see opportunities that others overlook. They are ambitious and bold and unafraid to do something that goes against the so-called conventional wisdom.
So here's a friendly reminder to media and fans: from now on, view these decisions through the Chaim Bloom prism.
Do not view these decisions through the Mozeliak prism. Do that, and there will be no reason to race to the fainting couch when Bloom trades a reliever with minor-league options remaining (Andre Granillo) for a reliever that is out of options (George Soriano.) And when there's a note about Saggese getting a look in the outfield ... you won't have to reach for the inhaler.
I’m also intrigued by Nelson Velasquez, the right-handed hitting outfielder who could play all three positions out there earlier in his career with the Cubs and Royals.
Velazquez, who had 17 home runs and a .586 slugging percentage in just 162 at-bats for the Cubs and Royals in 2023. (Heck, that’s a home run every 9.5 at-bats.) After washing out of the majors, Velasquez rebuilt his career in Mexico, came back, and had a strong showing for Pittsburgh’s Triple A team late in the 2025 season. I guess there’s always a chance for a lottery ticket to pay off – even if it isn’t a big prize.
Bryan Torres, age 28, is an unlikely “prospect” because of that age. But this is an unusual player who started playing pro ball way back in 2015 for the Brewers’ Dominican Summer League team at age 17. This will be his 11th season (any level) and his ninth year in the standard minor leagues. Torres played at the Triple A level for the first time last season … and let’s go back to the “unusual player” reference.
Torres stands 5 feet, 7 inches and weighs 165 pounds. Here’s what he did in 104 games for Memphis – .328 average, .441 on-base percentage, .464 slug, and a .905 OPS. He also swiped 26 bases, struck out in only 13.7 percent of his plate appearances and walked 17% of the time. I mean, who does that?
Here’s a more detailed scouting report from Baseball America, which rated him 27th on the Cardinals’ Top 30 Prospects list going into 2026:
“In his early years as a professional, Torres felt his best attribute, his speed, was sacrificed due to the rigors of catching and its impact on his legs. In independent ball, Torres moved to the outfield and showed baserunning ability and contact skills. So far with the Cardinals, he has shown the ability to make contact at a plus rate and walk more than he strikes out. He has a well below-average power profile. Torres is unlikely to hit more than a handful of homers in a season, even with full-time playing reps. He’s only an average runner, but he’s a cerebral player who makes great reads on the bases and reads pitcher tendencies quickly. Torres is a versatile defender capable of filling in at any position across the diamond, but his best positions are corner outfield and second base.”
The Cardinals thought so highly of Torres that they placed him on the 40-man roster this past offseason to eliminate the risk of losing him in the Rule 5 Draft.
One problem: Torres bats lefthanded. Or is that a problem? In 340 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in Triple A last season, Torres batted .348 with a .461 on-base percentage and .511 slug and .972 OPS. He walked in 18 percent of his plate appearances and struck out at a rate of only 12%. Torres didn’t have much to show for his batting average and slugging percentage against lefty pitchers – but he still managed to walk with enough frequency to finesse a .347 onbase percentage vs. LHP.
Torres may be the most interesting player in Camp Cardinal. The surprise? That he’s made it this far and only continues to get better. Does he have a chance to make this team? On the surface, I would say no. But ... if we look at Torres through the Bloom prism, then we'll know that anything is possible because Bloom doesn't limit himself to old-school orthodoxy.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.