Game Information
Missouri Tigers (17-7) vs Texas Longhorns (15-9)
Time: 7:30pm CT Saturday
How to watch: ESPN2
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Mizzou -2.5
Total: 150.5
KenPom Projection
Texas 79, Mizzou 78
The Missouri Tigers look for a fourth straight victory tonight when they host the Texas Longhorns in a very important SEC matchup.
Both teams are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble heading into tonight’s game, but Missouri took a huge step forward with a critical Quad 1 road win at Texas A&M earlier this week.
The line has moved towards Mizzou as of the time of this writing, and I agree with the market because I think the Longhorns are a very good matchup for the Tigers.
Texas is an excellent offensive team, ranking 10th in the country in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. However, most of that damage has been done inside where Texas has been able to dominate teams in the interior. Defending the paint has been a strength for the Tigers though, as they are a top 25 team in two-point field goal percentage defense.
Mizzou really struggles defending the 3, but not only do the Longhorns not make a lot of 3’s (34.1% ranks 175th in the country), they don’t even take a lot of them.
There’s a stat on KenPom that measures what percentage of a team’s field goal attempts come from three-point range. Texas ranks #211 out of 365 Division One teams in that category.
There’s another stat that looks at what percentage of a team’s points come from three-pointers, and Texas is #288 in that department.
So unless the Longhorns totally change how they play and start jacking up a bunch of 3’s and making a lot of them, Missouri should be able to hold its own defensively.
On the other side, the Tigers have really struggled committing too many turnovers this season (257th in the country), but Texas doesn’t really get after teams defensively. The Horns are just 328th in the nation in forcing turnovers.
This matchup sets up well for Missouri, so look for the Tigers to keep building momentum in front of a sold-out crowd at Mizzou Arena.
Pick: Mizzou -2.5 at -105 on DraftKings (bet to -3)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every week on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer