As usual, Cardinals manager Oli Marmol joined us on KMOX FM-AM for Tuesday’s “Gashouse Gang” show.
Marmol was expansive in his comments on several issues, and so I thought I’d share them with you here. But really, you should listen to the Gashouse Gang each weekday from noon to 1 p.m. St. Louis time. And we do the “Redbird Rush Hour” from 5-6 p.m. weeknights.
I’ll go with these in chronological order.
On closer Riley O’Brien coming through with a clean, 1-2-3 ninth inning Monday for his 19th save of the season in STL’s 3-2 win over Arizona.
Marmol: “We gotta continue to remind ourselves what the work has been in even getting him to the closer spot. There's going to be ups and downs. I know people don't like hearing that, but the reality is we got him from Seattle.
“We knew he had great stuff. We had to get him to trust his stuff and get to this point, but there's gonna be hiccups, man. There's gonna be times where it doesn't go well.
There's going to be weeks where it doesn't go well. That doesn't mean you just go on to the next guy. You have to stay committed and give him an opportunity.
“The reality is no matter who you put in that spot based on what we have right now, you're going to have times that look like that and you're gonna get frustrated and it'll be a rotation (of closers). We're sticking with Riley for now. And I'm glad he did the job last night.”
I pointed out that Matthew Liberatore has a 5.23 ERA this year, and a 5.19 ERA in his last 27 starts going back to July 11 of 2025. I asked Marmol why the Cardinals believe they can turn him around.
Marmol: “Yeah, you can never predict with certainty that you're gonna get it out of them. But we're always going to give an opportunity beyond what the reaction from the fan base is gonna be.
“And trust me, if Chaim (Bloom) thought that the move was now, it would have already been done. There's a lot of thought that goes into this as to when you do it, why you do it. Inside knowledge of what we know. It’s more than just ‘Libby, can he get past the fourth, fifth inning this next time out?’
“So, we spend a lot of time on this man, not only on trying to figure out and how to solve for him going deeper in the games and being more effective, but what does that mean organizationally for our depth and everything else that goes along with it? So, yes, we are well aware of his last 27 outings.
“We're well aware that this is beyond just the start of this year. And my job is to continue to go and continue to get the most out of him until I'm told not to. And at the moment, man, we're head down on that.
And (pitching coach Dusty Baker is committed to it, Libby's committed to it, and I am as well.
“And it doesn't mean there aren't conversations as to what's best, but at the moment, and speaking of Chaim, this is the plan.
On Andre Pallante’s improvement from a poor 2025, and does that influence his desire to work on improving Liberatore. Marmol also mentioned Hunter Dobbins, who is still starting for Triple A Memphis.
Marmol: “I'm so happy that that's part of the conversation, but let's not act like we weren't saying this guy (Pallante) stinks last year, right? And the year before. And he's got nothing for right-handed hitters.
They're beating him up. Lefties are starting to get underneath that cut fastball. He doesn't have a solution for that either.
“This guy needs to go to the pen. He needs to figure out a trip. Like everything we're saying about (Kyle) Leahy and Libby, we were that much harder on Pallante.
“He’s done a lot of things different. He's not spraying that sinker. He can actually pitch into righties now. They can't just leave him over the plate and shoot him to right field. He threw a couple of change-ups that he's developing. He threw a couple of those yesterday. And he's throwing strikes.
“So yes, everything plays better when you're in the zone and you're not in a 2-0, 2-1 count, 3-1 count where hitters can feast off of you. So I hear you. I don't disagree, but we wanted Palante out of here. I mean, I heard the noise over the last couple of years and I'm so happy for him that he's … figuring it out and he's taking a lot of steps in the right direction. I think there's more there.
“So my point is, it is easy to move on to the next (guy) … as soon as that person doesn't perform, we'll move on to the next. And the next, it's just the next shiny toy.
“Dobbins is no different. We know what we have down below. We know how it will play up here. We want to make sure that we don't make the move just to be reacting to what we're currently seeing. There's way more that goes into it. And I appreciate that we're wanting to see Dobbins. I want to see him too. But there's a process to this.
“And what I will say is Chaim, man, when I say he’s super diligent and the conversations aren't in passing … these are detailed, long conversations as to when and why. And I love how thoughtful he is with us as far as how he's thinking through all of this.”
Marmol, on the super-slugger prospect Joshua Baez, who has 25 homers and a .626 slugging percentage at Triple A Memphis. But without being specific, Marmol was clearly referring to the too-high Baez chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. And, until recently, Baez’ inadequate, below-average contact rate on pitches in the strike zone.
Marmol, smiling about that Baez power: “I'm aware It's what we got right now. Well, there isn't really a need for Joshua Baez to be on this team. But what you're talking about is, does that apply for him too? That he's got all these numbers and they're gaudy and we're looking at them like, man, look at this guy. But there's other stuff that maybe the organization is concerned about.
“Yes. And not concerned — but just, there's certain boxes that need to be checked. And I love what he's doing. At some point, I'd love to see it appear. I'm in that camp with you guys, man. This is real power from the right side. He's a real threat.
“I love his personality, what he showed in spring training, just his overall demeanor. There's so much to love about this kid. But yeah, there's a process.
“What's cool about all of this is we actually have players up here offensively that are doing the job. And we have a guy (Baez) in AAA that's absolutely killing it. And it reminds me of those years where Alan Craig was just sitting back there hitting homers left and right in AAA and there wasn't a spot for him, right? It's good to have some depth.
“We haven't had that in a while where your team is playing well, you've got guys at the big league level producing, there's a guy in AAA kind of champing at the bit and knocking (on the door). That's the way it's supposed to look. We should have several of those.
“I mean, we're talking about one of them (Baez). I can't wait till we have three or four of those where there's just not room for them because guys are actually doing their job at the big league level. That's when we'll know we're doing this right. And we're starting to get there. This is just the very beginning, in my opinion.”
Since rookie center fielder Nathan Church returned from the injured list earlier this month, he’s played very well in all phases of the game. Marmol offered his observations.
Marmol: “When he was coming up through the minor leagues, he swung a lot less than he swings now. And what I mean by that, he controlled the strike zone better than what we've seen at the big league level.
“Now, when you get up here, sometimes the game is fast, and it takes certain guys longer than others to just kind of drop their shoulders and settle in and take a deep breath. I think we're starting to see that.
“This is the very beginning of it with Church, where he's saying, ‘OK, I belong up here. I can take a deep breath and start to play my game. And you're seeing even the excitement behind some of his walks, right? He'll walk, look into the dugout (smiles). And that has to be part of his game. But he can spray the ball all over the field. He's got enough pop and juice in the bat to let it eat at times.
“And he's a great defender, with a ‘plus’ arm in center field. So there's so many different ways he can contribute to winning a baseball game that's fun to watch. It just is.
“So we're seeing exactly what he's capable of doing. This isn't just a hot stretch. Like, Nathan Church is a good ball player, and he grinds, he's tough. He can have a tough conversation, and he's hungry for what's next. So just a combination of everything he brings to the table. There's a lot to be excited about, but he's done a really nice job after coming back.”
Marmol was asked to assess the early defensive performance of third rookie third baseman Blaze Jordan.
Marmol: “Beyond my expectations, I'll tell you that. He's done a nice job at third. Really nice job. And reports on him, everything that was sent our way, compared to what we're seeing. Like, I think the kid has exceeded expectations.
“He's made all the plays. He's ranged to his backhand several times, accurate throws, strong arm. So I think he's showing everybody, including us, that he deserves a shot there.
“And the at-bats, in my opinion, have been good. He's gonna be on the ground more than you'd like, but he stays inside the baseball. And in situations where you need what the game's calling for, (Monday night) was a great example, man, where he just stays inside the ball, has a tough at-bat, hits the sac fly to center field.
“Those are the types of things he's capable of doing. But as far as his play at third, I think he's done a nice job.”
On Kyle Leahy, who is making the transition from reliever to starter in 2026. What’s the assessment?
Marmol: “We have to continue to remind ourselves what this season is about and not pull the plug too early on someone like Leahy. He has the pitches, the preparation, all the things you would want from a starter.
“Has it been ideal? The answer to that is no. Am I still optimistic that he will make progress and that he will take advantage of every opportunity to get better? Yeah. So that's where you stay the course and give him exactly that, the opportunity to do it. Our depth, when it comes to guys that are big-league ready, that you're not going to stunt their growth and development by getting them up here too early, that list isn't too long.
(Marmol was referring to lefty Quinn Mathews and possibly right-hander Brycen Mautz – and Dobbins as well. Mautz has been plagued by walks in recent performances; that’s also been a challenge for Mathews.)
Back to Marmol: “So you have to stay the course here and make sure you're doing what's right for Mathews, like all those guys, you have to stay super committed to what's best for them because those are the guys that are going to help us for a long time. And if you rush that process, in my opinion, you have the chance of losing them for longer than you'd like.
“So this is where I'll make the comment again, where Chaim is very thoughtful when it comes to what that plan needs to truly be and not allow the outside noise to influence it.”
Ivan Herrera has absorbed 21 hit-by-pitches this season. That leads the majors. Former Cardinal Willson Contreras, now with Boston, is second with 14 HBP. Herrera was drilled on a high pitch to the batting helmet in Sunday’s game at Kansas City. I asked Marmol how he feels about what’s going on with this. Is there a line that another team would cross in terms of another team hitting one of your players in a dangerous spot?
Marmol: “Yeah, I absolutely hate it. And I'm probably debating how to word this publicly, where I don't get in trouble … I hate it to the point where I'll get myself in trouble with more than just a suspension based on how I think about that. I'm going to leave it at that. I don't like it.
“And there are times where the line is crossed. And those times are obvious. The one hit in the head bothered me a lot. You have to be reminded, by others on the staff, if there's malice behind it.
“And if someone's actually going after him or the best way to get him out is (pitching) inside, no different than Contreras. And pitchers that don't have command are going to miss. But I'm going to leave it at that.
“For those that think we're just taking it, you don't know me real well, (and) I highly disagree. But I've had enough conversations with people at the commissioner's office. I'll leave it at that. But, yeah, I don't love it.
“With Herrera, when you start to break his (HBP) down, I don't think these are malicious. But at the same time, there's times where it's just enough's enough, right? And you need to be able to take care of that.
“I've had a lot of conversations with Herrera. He's on the other side of it where he just feels like, ‘hey, this is the way they have to pitch me. I get it. It's part of my game.’ But at some point, enough's enough.”
I hope you enjoyed the lengthy and verbatim excerpts from Marmol’s conversation on KMOX.
BIRD BYTES
What, you thought I was finished writing for the day? Wrong! I am a maniac. Give me another coffee, and I’m good …
NL Rookie of the Year Outlook: I checked the Kalshi prediction market exchange on Tuesday afternoon. Here’s the question as listed on the site: “NL Rookie of the Year?” And investors decide where to put their money based on what they believe the outcome will be.
As perceived by people on the outside, the probability of JJ Wetherholt winning the award continues to rise. At last check, Wetherholt had a 61 percent probability compared to 19% for Sal Stewart (Reds) and 14% for Bryce Eldridge (Giants.)
At one point in April, Stewart had a 42.8% probability of winning Rookie of the Year based on Kalshi investments. At that time, Wetherholt’s win probability was only 6 percent.
If a fan or media person is addicted to counting stats and largely incapable or disinterested in modern and more advanced player evaluation … Well, Stewart will be their guy. Because counting stats – let’s just say that’s elementary-school level player evaluation. But if one understands and appreciates a player’s overall value based on offense, defense, baserunning and other metrics, then Wetherholt is the obvious choice. At least for now. It can change.
For now, here’s an example of the edges Wetherholt has over Stewart:
— FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement: it’s 3.5 fWAR for Wetherholt, and 1.3 fWAR. Good grief. Wetherholt’s WAR is 169.2% higher than 1.3 WAR.
— Win Probability Added: this is basically a “clutch” rating based on a player’s value in high leverage spots that have tremendous influence on the game’s outcome. Wetherholt leads NL rookies with 2.12 WPA. Stewart is ninth among NL rookies with 0.21 WPA. Using the sports contest, Wetherholt’s WPA is 909.5% higher than Stewart’s. In plain terms, JJ’s direct contribution to winning games is more than 10 times greater (10.1x) than Stewart's this season. If we go by the standard mathematical formula that compares the two numbers relative to their average – the midpoint formula – the percentage difference is between Wetherholt and Stewart is 164.0%
— On-base efficiency and zone control. Another way to put it: control the strike zone to avoid giving away outs. Wethertholt has a .372 on-base percentage compared to Stewart’s .344. That’s nearly a 30-point difference, which is massive. Wetherholt is superior in strike-zone discipline and table-setting capabilities.
— Contact Quality and Whiff Profile: Wetherholt's compact left-handed stroke generates exceptionally high contact rates. He has the edge over Stewart in overall contact rate (5% higher), contact rate on strikes (4.3% higher), swinging-strike rate (2.6% lower), and chase rate (5.1% lower).
Defense: positional premium and the resulting defensive chasm. Stewart plays at the infield corners, where the defensive demands are lower and good offense is expected. Wetherholt anchors second base – a premium, up-the-middle spot where elite offensive production is usually difficult to find. But not with Wetherholt.
— Outs Above Average (OAA) & Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Wetherholt isn't just playing a tougher position; right now he’s playing at a Gold Glove level. Wetherholt has 10 defensive runs saved; Stewart has 1 DRS. Wetherholt has 10 Outs Above Average; Stewart has 1 OAA. In the Statcast Fielding Run Value, Wetherholt has a FRV of 12; Stewart is at zero. One dude is saving a helluva lot of runs for his team; the other dude is OK. Run prevention matters, eh? Especially in a driving-range ballpark in Cincinnati? I think so. But a baseball-blogger who writes about the Reds recently said that no one cares about defense when voting on the Rookie of the Year. OK, champ. If you say so.
What does Statcast Tell Us? Here are the percentile rankings in the three essential categories – and higher is better.
Batting Run Value: Wetherholt 76, Stewart 65.
Baserunning Run Value: Wetherholt 95, Stewart 31.
Fielding Run Value: Wetherholt 100, Stewart 56.
But… but … RBIs!
RBIs!
RBIs!
Stewart has more RBIs!
Finally …
— Bowden on Baez: Excited about Joshua Baez? Well, this will give you a little extra adrenaline. During an appearance on MLB Network Sirius XM radio, former MLB general manager and current Athletic baseball columnist Jim Bowden gushed over the Cardinals’ prodigious slugging prospect. Bowden believes Baez is on the doorstep of the majors.
“The power is real, it's foul pole to foul pole, it's got backspin, you make a mistake, he's going to crush it,” Bowden said. “But he can beat up not just with the power, he can beat you with the legs, he can beat you with the arm.
Bowden envisioned a lineup that starts off with JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker … with Baez on the way … and Masyn Winn in the No. 6 spot.
“There's a next Cardinal star ready and every time I watch Wetherholt, Walker and Burleson and Herrera and Winn from the hole, I start to get the heartbeat. Báez is coming,” Bowden said.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.