There hasn’t been much buzz in advance of Super Bowl 60. New England vs. Seattle is kind of a weird Super Bowl matchup, and a largely unexpected matchup. Before the season, I don’t know how many NFL fans thought the Big Game would feature a QB duel between Drake Maye and Sam Darnold, but here we are. Hey, at least it’s not Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins.
INFORMATION DESK
What: Super Bowl 60.
Who: New England Patriots (AFC) vs. the Seattle Seahawks (NFC.) Including the postseason the Patriots are 17-3 and the Seahawks are 16-3.
When: Sunday at 5:30 p.m. STL time.
Where: Santa Clara, CA. Which isn’t San Francisco. It’s not even San Jose.
Watch It: On NBC/Peacock
Bet It: DraftKings Sportsbook lists Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite. The over-under for total points scored in the game by both teams is 45.5. On the Moneyline, Seattle is minus 230 and New England is +130
Buy It: The average ticket price for Super Bowl 60 on the resale market is about $6,000 or slightly higher. In the first Super Bowl ever played (Jan. 15, 1967) box-office tickets sold for $6 and $12. When the 1999 STL Rams defeated the Tennessee Titans in Super Bowl 34, the box-office price was $325.
THE OBLIGATORY ANALYSIS
The Overview: It’s complicated, but I believe the Seahawks (16-3) will win this skirmish. The Seahawks are the best squad among the 32 NFL teams. Including the postseason, not only have the Seahawks allowed the fewest points per game (17.2) but they also rank No. 2 on offense with an average of 29.9 points scored per game. And this is important: Seattle has done this while wrestling the league’s fourth-toughest schedule. New England has won 17 of 20 games, which absolutely is worthy of praise and respect. But this is also true: the Patriots played the easiest schedule in the league during the regular season, and I have to factor that in.
I also have to consider this: the Patriots may have smashed more cupcakes than the Seahawks during the regular season. But I never hold a team’s soft schedule against them; the Patriots didn’t get to choose their schedule. So you either beat the teams that aren’t that great … or you lose to them and the critics start calling you a fraud. A win is a win is a win.
One of the reasons I feel strongly about this transports me back to 1999. The St. Louis Rams were maligned all season for playing a gift-wrapped schedule that was fairly easy to shred. (They’ll go down. Just watch.) Quarterback Kurt Warner was eyed with bemused skepticism. (Aww, this is a fun story, good for Kurt the Grocery Bagger. But there’s no way he’s this good. He’s getting his 15 minutes of fame, but this nice little story will expire. Maybe he can be a solid No. 2 quarterback.)
The chatter stopped when Warner connected with Isaac Bruce for the touchdown pass that led to a Super Bowl parade in downtown St. Louis. This wasn’t supposed to happen … but it did.
So shut the hell up.
On the season (including the playoffs) New England ranked 2nd in the NFL in points scored per game (28.8) and was 4th in points allowed per contest (18.8). And over 20 regular-season and playoff games, the Patriots outscored opponents by 198 points.
Yeah, the Patriots are tough enough. Mike Vrabel is an outstanding head coach, and you don’t want to get into a streetfight with this man. The Pats may not beat Seattle, but they won’t get physically beaten down. Vrabel’s club lost their three games by exactly seven points.
In one of the closest-ever elections for the NFL MVP award, Drake Maye lost out to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford by a thin margin.
Maye was excellent this season. Even if we include his bumpy, wind-tossed flight in the AFC playoffs, this is what Maye has done in his 20 games leading into the Super Bowl:
* 5,518 combined passing-rushing yards.
* 40 touchdowns, rushing+passing.
* 290 combined passing-rushing touchdowns.
And during the regular season, Maye was:
* 1st in EPA per pass play.
* 1st in passing success rate.
* 1st in completion percentage (72%)
* 1st in adjusted yards per pass attempt.
* 1st in passer efficiency rating (113.5)
* 1st in QBR (77.1)
* 1st in net yards gained per passing attempt.
* 1st in explosive passing plays.
* 1st in passing performance on throws of 20+ yards.
* Top 5 in EPA per pass in several defensive categories: throwing into tight windows. Throwing against man to man defense. Throwing against zone defenses. Throwing against single-high safety coverage. Throwing against two-high several coverage. Throwing when blitzed. Throwing when facing a four-man rush.
No, Drake Maye wasn’t good in the three AFC Playoff wins that lifted them into the Super Bowl. Fumbles, declining accuracy, losing his radar for knowing that a pass rush was coming and he needs to get the ball out of there … or hustle himself out of there and scramble for a first down.
The weather was bad for all three games, impacted by cold temperatures, howling winds, normal snow, a snow blizzard, impaired vision, etc. Yeah, and Maye also had to take on three Top 10 defenses: the Chargers (9th), the Texans (2nd) and the Broncos (3rd.) And even though his numbers sucked, the dude made a big play – a winning play – with the Patriots up against it.
My point is, I’ll take the larger sample size (17 games) over the small sample size (3 games) every time. Because the larger sample size is more meaningful and accurate.
The Patriots will be starting a rookie left tackle and a rookie left guard. That could be troublesome. Seattle has a nasty pass rush that generates a high pressure rate. The Seahawks don’t have to blitz to sack or disrupt the quarterback. But they’re also highly effective when they do blitz.
But if Drake has time to throw, just remember that (1) he’s an excellent deep-ball bomber and (2) the Seahawks have been surprisingly vulnerable against those throws. The Patriots are No. 1 in the NFL in explosive passes, and Maye is a nifty scrambler. The Seahawks’ defense has suffered some burns through explosive plays, and they rank 16th in the league in defending QB scrambles.
Can Maye do enough damage to Seattle to tilt this game to New England? I don’t know. It will be tough to do. But the Seahawks have been spun around and knocked down. Yes, that actually happens every now and then.
In two late-season games against the Seahawks (including the NFC championship), the Rams ransacked that fearsome defense for an average of 530 total yards 411 passing yards and 32 points per game. Stafford slung six touchdown passes against the Seahawks and wasn’t intercepted.
Can Maye have a Stafford game against Seattle? The Patriots may need that to get the victory. (They probably need Sam Darnold to have a bad day as well.) But Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is a brilliant and creative schemer who puts clouds of confusion into a quarterback's mind. That’s why Seattle is 10-1 under Macdonald in games against starting quarterbacks that have less than four seasons of NFL experience. Against Macdonald the young quarterbacks have endured everything that can go bad for a QB … sacks, poor throws, interceptions, fumbles, etc.
Macdonald vs. Maye?
The best matchup in Super Bowl 60.
One that will likely determine the outcome.
TO THE BETTORS: TRENDS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT
Another weird thing about the Super Bowl: the underdogs have a bite. The underdogs have a good time knocking the betting favorite to the ground – enough times to cover the point spread. It’s been pretty damn amazing:
From the great Steve Makinen of VSIN:
+ The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-17-2 against the spread (10.5%) in the last 28 Super Bowls. This favors New England.
+ Over the past 24 years, underdogs are 18-6 ATS (75%) in the Super Bowl. And that includes a 14-4 mark against the spread (77.7%) in the last 18 Supers.
+ On the other hand, if you think Seattle will win, consider this: The outright winner is 49-7-3 ATS (87.5%) in the 58 previous Super Bowls. That’s the highest success rate of any postseason round. As Makinen wrote: “The general thought is that champions typically leave little doubt in this game. Consider this if you have any concerns about laying points with Seattle, or taking a moneyline wager on the underdog Patriots.”
+ New England is on an 11-4 ATS hot streak when taking on defenses that allow less than 3.9 yards per rush. And Maye and the Patriots have done very well against those rugged run stoppers.
+ New England is 38-7 straight up and 33-12 ATS when carrying a 3-game winning streak (or more) or since 2016.
+ Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in the last 10 Super Bowl games. Seattle holds this slight edge over New England by 1.6 points per game.
BERNIE’S PICK
Seahawks 24, Patriots 20. I was quite tempted to go with the Patriots to win Super Bowl 60 straight up, in large part because football media (and many other folks) have completely overreacted to Maye’s malfunctions in the three AFC playoff games. And it’s not like Maye had all of those foul-ups in a dry track with little wind and no freezing moisture.
Seattle has the better team overall.
But for reasons that I put in front of you in this column, I’d be genuinely surprised to see a blow-out. I think the Patriots will keep it tight.
The underdogs could win if (1) Maye holds his own in the mind vs. mind battle against Macdonald. And (2) if Maye outperforms San Darnold. And I think Darnold could stress and overreact if he gets off to a messy start. But I’m wagering on New England to cover the 4.5 points, even if the Seahawks win.
Thanks for reading …
Enjoy the game -- and your weekend.
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith, Matt Holliday and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.