REDBIRD REVIEW
After spending more time thinking about the Cardinals-Mariners trade that transferred Brendan Donovan to the Pacific Northwest, I began wondering about Seattle’s upturn in recent seasons. And yes, there will be a St. Louis angle in this column.
After an extensive stretch of frustration and futility, how did this franchise move up to a higher tier of success? In the 19 seasons from 2002 through 2020, the Mariners failed to make the playoffs, had 12 losing records, and ranked 22nd among 30 teams in winning percentage.
The M’s had a couple of 90-win seasons and reached at least 85 victories in five other campaigns. But the Mariners did a lot of wandering and needed a compass … or perhaps a GPS.
Seattle’s baseball team has played 49 major-league seasons without winning the American League pennant. They’re the only AL team that has never won a pennant in their entire franchise history. That’s miserable. But the M’s knew they were getting closer.
“You’ve got to believe in yourself before anyone else will,” catcher Cal Raleigh said.
The Mariners have done well in recent seasons; in the American League only the Astros have won more regular-season games since the start of 2021. The seafarers made the playoffs twice and forced their way into the 2025 AL Championship Series before losing Game 7 to Toronto.
OK, so what has changed?
Was it spending more money and growing the payroll? Yes, but just a little. Over the past five seasons Seattle has an average MLB payroll ranking of 18.6 and has never been higher than 15th?
Was it the offense? Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez have bombed a lot of homers over the last five seasons. But the Mariners rank 17th in the majors in runs scored since the start of 2021 – and are 19th in OPS, 22nd in slugging, 27th in doubles, and 29th in triples.
Is it the pitching?
OK, now we’re getting somewhere.
Since the beginning of 2021 Seattle ranks eighth in the majors in overall ERA, ninth in starting-pitching ERA, second in quality starts, and eighth in Win Probability Added.
And why is this relevant to the Cardinals? Because president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom’s first plan of attack in this rebuild is to focus on pitching, pitching and more pitching.
One of Bloom’s first hires was to recruit Matt Pierpont, Seattle’s minor-league pitching coordinator who helped develop young starting pitchers – Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock.
The Seattle pitcher-development system is advanced, thorough and sophisticated. And it’s effective. The Mariners’ goal is drafting – and then shaping – their young arms.
Pierpont is now the Cardinals’ director of pitching (all levels). And Bloom’s first hire – Rob Cerfolio – is the assistant GM in charge of player development and performance. Cerfolio came to the Cardinals from Cleveland, where he played a major role in directing the Guardians’ assembly line of terrific young pitching.
Cerfolio and Pierpont are exactly what the Cardinals needed … and precisely what Bloom wanted as the Redbirds transition to more of a power-pitching, bat-missing approach.
And both men are a match for Bloom’s vision to build a stronger, deeper supply of pitching – with more high-velocity talents in the mix. (And that’s happening already.)
Seattle’s pitching department is heralded for its pitch-design sophistication … and integrating the advanced TrackMan, Rapsodo and Edgertronic systems … and initiating a unified pitch development capability at every level of the minors (and majors) … and turning seemingly average arms into high-leverage assets. In other words: doing everything possible to teach and improve pitching talent – and find solutions that mitigate a pitcher’s flaws.
Bloom admires organizations like the Mariners, Guardians, Dodgers, Rays and Guardians – that can draft and develop and build quality pitching. And both Pierpont and Cerfolio are pitching doctors. Or maybe pitching scholars. Maybe scientists?
When Pierpont left the Mariners his departure had the media talking/writing about a potential “brain drain” because other teams were trying to lure pitching-development aces away from Seattle.
Bloom is big on modernized pitching-development methods.
Pierpont appealed to the Cardinals because he could construct a modern pitching-lab operation that can transform young talent. We’re talking about an all encompassing master class on pitching.
The baby Redbirds will benefit from all of this – an approach that is ahead of the trends, ahead of the game. And the Cardinals simply haven’t had that. And this glaring weakness was a huge factor in their decline. Bloom is taking preventative measures.
Despite having a limited payroll and an inconsistent offense, the Mariners came to life through superb pitching that was enhanced by technology, smart thinkers, excellent teachers, the ability to make adjustments, and finding the pitchers that fit the desired profile.
What’s the difference between Seattle and St. Louis pitching?
Well …
Just look at the top three Mariners starters in 2025 and their “stuff-plus” rating from Eno Sarris – and then compare it to three STL starters that had a presence in the 2025 rotation and will try again in 2026.
The Sarris stuff-plus ratings were applied to 150 MLB starters:
Seattle: Logan Gilbert 8th, Bryan Woo 9th, George Kirby 14th.
St. Louis: Michael McGreevy 141st, Matthew Liberatore 142nd, Andre Pallante 147th.
A rather large difference.
Yes, elite starting pitching can definitely be an equalizer.
As future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona said: “When you get pitching, everything looks better. Your defense, your offense, your managing. Good pitching gives you a chance in every game, no matter what else is going on.”
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A QUICK NOTE
Five Cardinals made the MLB Top 100 Prospects list as chosen by Baseball Prospectus: JJ Wetherholt (8), Rainiel Rodriguez (16), Liam Doyle (31), Jurrangelo Cjintje (52) and Josh Baez (84.)
AN OUTSIDE VIEW
— Baseball analyst Joe Sheehan took a look at the Cardinals-Mariners from Seattle’s vantage point. What can Brendan Donovan do for the Mariners? After praising Donovan’s positional versatility and his high onbase percentage, Joe wondered about Donny’s fit in the Mariners’ home ballpark.
“The risk here is mostly in the adjustment to T-Mobile Park,” Sheehan wrote. “In recent seasons, many hitters the Mariners have acquired have seen their production collapse in Seattle. Jesse Winker had a .288/.385/.504 career line before being dealt northwest in 2022. He hit .219/.344/.344 for the Mariners. Carlos Santana came over from the Royals that summer with his career .362 OBP and hit .192/.293/.400 in half a season. The next year, Teoscar Hernandez arrived in Seattle with a career 121 OPS+, hit for a 108 mark that year, then bounced back to 120 in two seasons with the Dodgers.
“That season, we also watched the careers of Kolten Wong and A.J. Pollock ended by the dead air at T-Mobile. In 2024, it was Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver. Last year, Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. We have seen, time and time again, hitters come to Seattle and be unable to match their prior performance, then go on to success, sometimes still with the Mariners, more often after being cut loose.
Joe continued: “This isn’t to say ‘Brendan Donovan is doomed’ so much as a reason to worry that there’s something the projections aren’t capturing as players debut in T-Mobile Park. Specific to Donovan, whose strength at the plate is in his contact rate and plate discipline, T-Mobile has been the best park in the league for strikeouts and one of the worst for walks over the last three years. If we create a junk stat – the ratio of the three-year park factors for strikeouts and walks – we get a sense of the challenge ahead for Donovan.”
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith, Matt Holliday and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.