I have conflicted feelings about Missouri’s 27-24 loss to Alabama inside the rowdy, black-and-gold hippodrome in CoMo.
So here I go, sorting through my headwires and wishing Saturday had turned out differently…
1. Alabama won because quarterback Ty Simpson played an excellent game, and Missouri QB Beau Pribula did not. There’s a lot to like about Pribula, and this was only his sixth career start in CFB, and my comments here are hardly a case of overreacting. But Pribula must be better than this. Especially now that Mizzou will head out of Boone County to play four of their final six regular-season games on the road. Inconsistent and turnover-prone quarterback play would be a killer on the road for MIZ.
Pardon my usage of advanced metrics if that sort of thing bothers you. According to the College Football Data site, in the category of Predicted Points Added (based on quality of performance, the scorecard looked this way: Simpson 14.1 PPA and Pribula 5.9 PPA.
2. Missouri had a swell opportunity to bag an important and meaningful victory, but couldn’t close the deal. So yeah, this was an unseized come-and-take-it opportunity that went unclaimed. And that stinks. The loss left Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz with a 1-6 career record versus Top 10 teams. There’s no embarrassment in losing to Alabama, which was installed as a three-point favorite. But with so many highfalutin goals in mind, the Tigers have to grab a win whenever it’s doable.
3. Alabama didn’t come into Faurot Field and blast the Tigers with a top-caliber performance. Bama was absolutely beatable, and that’s why this loss left more of a sting. Keeping in mind that Mizzou ventured into this showdown with the second-best homefield winning percentage among power conference teams since the start of 2023, it was reasonable to expect a successful afternoon for the Tigers. This is how a very good program becomes a great program – by protecting the castle from a college-football empire.
4. Problem is, Mizzou couldn’t get it done because Mizzou largely defeated Mizzou. Too many mistakes, including some unforced errors that led to dumb and damaging penalties. And missed throws. Allowing the Crimson Tide to convert a 3rd and 24 situation – and a 4th and 8 play. And Pribula failing to see open receiver Marquis Johnson on Missouri’s final, ill-fated drive.
5. I simply do not understand MU’s offensive strategy. The nation’s leading rusher coming into the game, Mizzou tackle-breaking, back-breaking running back Ahmad Hardy, was being touted as a Heisman Trophy candidate. And now he could put some hurt on an Alabama unit that had cavities in its run defense.
Before Saturday, the Crimson Tide defense was ranked 116th nationally with an average yield of 5.3 yards per rushing attempt and 109th in preventing explosive runs. On top of that, Bama’s defensive front seven was weakened by injuries. There was also the history of Alabama’s rushing defense getting trampled in road/neutral games since Kalen DeBoer became head coach before the 2024 season.
6. So explain this to me: why did the brilliant Ahmad Hardy get only 12 runs in this game? In his previous four games – Kansas, Louisiana, South Carolina and UMass – Hardy averaged 23.2 rushing attempts. As mentioned, he had a dozen carries against Bama and averaged 4.3 yards per carry. The Tide did a solid job of keeping Hardy contained, which is why Mizzou had to keep pounding away instead of putting their super-horse back in the barn. Keep feeding the ball to Hardy; the more he attacks the more he’ll wear any defense down – especially one that has gotten pushed around on the turf.
I appreciate that others in the media would disagree with this premise, and some have defended the coaches. That’s all good with me; disagreement is part of the sports-watching experience.
But all I know is this: Mizzou had the No. 1 running back in the nation going against an Alabama defense that has been vulnerable against the run.
And Ahmad Hardy had only 12 touches in Mizzou’s 56 plays from scrimmage. He handled the ball on 21.4 percent of MU’s offensive snaps. Hardy had 30 percent of Mizzou’s touches in the win over Kansas, and 29.3% of the handles in the victory over South Carolina.
Overall Mizzou ran the ball pretty well against the Crimson Tide, averaging 5.8 yards per rush. All the more reason to give Hardy more opportunities for break-out runs. Just because he didn’t pop free against Bama – with a long gain of 11 yards – there’s no reason to shy away from sticking with him. This wasn’t UMass, OK? It ain’t supposed to be easy against one of the SEC’s best teams.
7. Now we know the answer to a question: can anyone stop Ahmad Hardy? Why yes. Eli Drinkwitz and offensive coordinator Kirby Moore. A team that is fast and furious at running the football should be merciless with a relentless rushing attack. This was not the case on Saturday. It was. And this makes no sense. Sometimes teams have to get away from the run because of scoreboard deficits. But this wasn’t one of those games; the Tigers’ largest deficit was 10 points. There was no cause for panic; cooling down its own running game was Mizzou’s favor to Alabama. Hardy participated on 25 percent of MU’s snaps Saturday, but take note of the pattern: 44 percent in the first quarter, 22% in the second quarter, 29% in the third quarter, and 18% in the fourth.
8. Pribula had virtually the same number of runs in this game (11) as Hardy (12.) And Jamal Roberts had a 39-yard run, but was given only five touches in the game. Mizzou averaged 49 rushing attempts over the first five games – and cut that back to 28 rushes against Alabama. (???). Yeah, I question it. The Tigers abandoned the strongest area of their offense … and for what, exactly? To build the game plan around Pribula?
Even after this setback, Pro Football Focus has Mizzou graded as the third-best power-conference rushing team in the land. And that Alabama defense that Mizzou was so seemingly reluctant to test (with Hardy) is rated 45th among 68 power-conference teams at stopping the run.
9. Missouri did a lot of things well in this loss. Here’s a partial list:
– More total yards than Alabama despite running 19 fewer plays from scrimmage.
– More yards rushing overall.
– Averaged more yards per play (5.9) than Bama (4.3).
– Averaged more yards per rush (5.8) than Bama (2.8).
— Had a higher PPA on running plays than Bama.
– Had more sacks (4) than Bama (2).
– Had more tackles for losses (7) than Bama (2.)
10. A few negatives: Missouri’s average possession time on drives was 1 minute 55 seconds. The ball-control aspect of the MU offense was missing, as Mizzou’s average drive was 5 plays, 29 yards …The Tigers lost the turnover battle, 2-1 … Simpson (three touchdowns, no interceptions) obviously outplayed Pribula (2 TD, 2 INT) … Mizzou converted only 1 of 10 third-down plays.
11. This must change: where is the downfield passing game? Missouri has an outstanding set of receivers but isn’t maximizing their talent. This is a telling (and troubling) statistic: six games into the season Pribula has attempted only 14 throws that travel 20-plus yards in the air. That total ranks 64th among the 72 power conference quarterbacks that have taken at least 20 percent of their team’s dropbacks. If defenses know that your offense won’t air it out more often than this, opponents don’t have to worry about getting scorched with downfield passes.
Does Pribula lack the arm strength for deeper throws? Well, I don’t know because he’s averaged only 2.3 pass attempts of 20+ yards per game this season.
Through six games, Pribula is last among SEC quarterbacks with only four completions that have gone for 30+ yards. Why? Mizzou has multiple receivers capable of stretching the field. But if Pribula can’t hit on more chunk plays through the sky, the Mizzou offense will be limited.
Finally: based on all of the statistical metrics, who should have won Saturday’s game? The answer: Missouri had a win expectancy of 53 percent according to College Football Data.
Thanks for reading …