Good day to you. As I begin to write this, we’re about an hour away from the first pitch of Thursday’s Pirates-Cardinals game at Busch Stadium. The ballpark isn’t exactly One AT&T Center, the downtown skyscraper that’s been vacant for nearly a decade … but … oh, never mind. I will now suspend my lame joke and get to the business.
THE STATE OF THE OFFENSE
Dormant.
And this would be accurate even if the Cardinals spewed a bunch of runs against the Pirates on Thursday. But this staggeringly dull and impotent offense leads the National League in one category: yawns.
Consider these morsels of information that show the frailty of the St. Louis offense.
— Since June 30, a span of 49 games through Wednesday, the Cardinals had scored the fewest runs in the majors and also ranked last among the 30 teams in slugging percentage (.355), OPS (.656).
— Coming into Thursday, the Cardinals had scored three runs or fewer in 55 percent of their games played since June 30. And their record when scoring no more than three runs in a tussle since June 30 is 4-23. Their overall record during that time was 18-31.
— No MLB team has been shutout more often than the Cardinals (8) since June 30. And the Cards have scored one or no runs 13 times in their 49 games.
— In their last 49 games before Thursday, the Cardinals had plated no more than four runs 30 times and had a 5-25 record in those altercations.
— Over the last 49 games, as the blight on offense set in, the Cardinals have had particular difficulty against four-seam fastballs. On heaters clocked at 95+ miles per hour, the Cardinals had the worst batting average in the majors (.170) and ranked 29th out of 30 teams in slugging percentage (.272.)
I guess the team scouts and analytics people should start looking for hitters that can blast upper-velocity fastballs.
I’ll summarize the state of the St. Louis offense by pointing out something that is especially troubling.
All offenses have flaws, but the Cardinals just have a terrible mix of weaknesses.
I think a struggling offense would do a poor job of getting on base, or a poor job of hitting for power.
With the Cardinals, it’s both.
I’ll get back to that in a few moments.
You may be wondering why I’m focusing on the June 30 date. There is a reason. Before then, the Cardinals offense was operating pretty well, ranking seventh in the majors in runs scored, eighth in wRC+, and 12th in OPS.
A major shift began on June 30 when the Cardinals went into Pittsburgh and got shut out in three straight losses there. And the performance has continued to flatten out.
And we can understand why. You don’t need to send out a search team to look for the reasons.
Getting on base since June 30: the Cardinals are 25th in batting average (.235), and 27th in walk rate (7.6%). Their batting average on balls in play (.287) is only three percent less than the overall MLB average, so don’t be conned by the TV people who are always reliably desperate to make excuses for the team. So given the low batting average and a reduced walk rate, is it any surprise to know the Cardinals rank 28th in on-base percentage (.301) since June 30th.
When you can’t get on base at a league-average level, your team will have fewer opportunities to score runs. And that leads us to another failing area: since June 30, the Cardinals rank 23rd with a .237 batting average with runners in scoring position – and are 29th in slugging on their RISP chances.
The Cardinals have fewer run-scoring opportunities than all but two teams since June 30 – and that’s compounded by their trend of doing less than most teams when having those chances to cash in.
Power since June 30: It’s thin and unimposing. There’s no need for a circuit breaker because there’s no overload of power here. Over the last 49 games before Thursday the Cardinals were last in the majors with their .355 slugging percentage, last in Isolated Power, 28th in home runs (39), and were homering at a ratio of one longball every 44 at-bats.
Like it or not, power is a big component in the modern game. Quick strikes that land over the outfield wall can rearrange a game in a matter of seconds. The Cardinals simply lack the firepower to turn losses into sudden wins.
Since June 30 the Cardinals have failed to homer in 22 of their 49 games, and they’re 4-18 when it happens. They’ve hit no more than one home run in 40 of their 49 games, a glaringly high percentage (81.6) that’s a significant reason for their 14-26 mark in those contests.
And for the small-ball advocates out there, it’s important to recognize the Cardinals’ ineffectiveness when trying to execute that style of play.
More than anything, the Cardinals don’t have the necessary talent to produce and sustain a formidable offense.
Since June 30, above-average lineup regulars: this is determined by wRC+, and 100 is the league average. Only three regulars are above that 100 average: Willson Contreras 137, Alec Burleson 120, Nolan Gorman 118.
Since June 30, below-average lineup regulars or semi-regulars per wRC+: Lars Nootbaar 91, Jordan Walker 90, Ivan Herrera 85, Brendan Donovan 84, Masyn Winn 73, Yohel Pozo 69, Pedro Pages 68, Thomas Saggese 63, Victor Scott II 52, Nolan Arenado 19.
The Cardinals have guys.
Guys are average players.
The Cardinals need more dudes.
Dudes are the stars that can elevate their team.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX, and Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast on the Cardinals with his longtime pal Will Leitch. Bernie joins Katie Woo on the “Cardinal Territory” video-podcast each week, and you can catch a weekly “reunion” segment here at STL Sports with Bernie’s appearance on the Randy Karraker Show every Friday morning at 10:30 am.