As the St. Louis Blues gear up for the 2025-26 season, their fierce Central Division rivals, the Dallas Stars, enter the year under new head coach Glen Gulutzan with a roster that's undergone some notable tweaks. After pushing to the Western Conference Final in 2024-25, the Stars made moves to manage their cap but may have created exploitable weaknesses—perfect opportunities for the Blues to capitalize on in head-to-head matchups.
Drawing from stats on HockeyReference and PuckPedia’s projected lineups, we break down the Stars' changes, highlight key battles against the Blues, and outline how St. Louis can dominate the Central Division rivalry.
Central Division Series
Dallas' Offseason Moves: Cap Struggles Create Opportunities for the Blues
The Stars prioritized cap compliance by retaining their core but offloading key contributors, leaving gaps in depth and physicality that the Blues' balanced roster can target. Here's how their changes play into St. Louis' hands:
Stars' Key Additions
- Radek Faksa (F): Back in Dallas on a three-year deal after a stint with the Blues (15 points in 70 games). While his defensive skills and 52.3% career faceoff win rate bolster their fourth line, Blues fans know his limitations from last season—he's solid but not a game-changer, especially against St. Louis' dynamic centers like Robert Thomas.
- Vladislav Kolyachonok (D): Acquired in the Matt Dumba trade, this 24-year-old adds size (6-2, 195 lbs) but is likely headed to the AHL. His inexperience could be a weak link if injuries force a call-up, giving the Blues' forecheckers like Dylan Holloway room to pressure Dallas' blue line.
Stars' Key Subtractions
- Mason Marchment (F): Traded for mid-round picks after posting 22 goals and 47 points in 62 games. His physical presence on the wing is gone, making it easier for the Blues' defense to contain Dallas' top lines without worrying about secondary enforcers.
- Mikael Granlund (F): Left as a UFA after contributing 7 goals and 14 assists in 31 games. Losing his playmaking thins their middle-six, allowing their opposition’s depth forwards to outpace and outproduce Dallas in even-strength play.
- Evgenii Dadonov (RW): Departed after 20 goals in 80 games, further depleting their scoring options. This forces reliance on prospects, which the Blues' veteran group can exploit in grinding matchups.
- Cody Ceci (D): His steady third-pair play (9 points, 55 blocks in 31 games) is out the door, weakening Dallas against physical teams.
- Mathew Dumba (D): Traded away after providing grit and ultimately softens their defense, making it vulnerable to aggressive forecheck and hits from players like Jake Neighbours.
Impact on Dallas' Depth—and Blues' Advantage
These subtractions cleared cap space but left the Stars top-heavy and thin in the bottom-six, relying on unproven talents like Oskar Back and Sam Steel. For the Blues, this means St. Louis' emerging stars, such as Holloway (26G, 63PTS in 77 games) and rookie Jimmy Snuggerud, have a better chance to dominate depth battles and wear down Dallas in low-scoring, physical games.
Dallas' Projected Lineup and Special Teams:
PuckPedia projects a Stars lineup built around high-danger scoring, but multitple areas are left vulnerable
Forwards:
- Robertson – Hintz – Rantanen
- Benn – Duchene – Seguin
- Steel – Johnston – Bourque
- Back – Faksa – Blackwell
Defense:
- Lindell – Heiskanen
- Harley – Lyubushkin
- Bichsel – Lundkvist
Goaltenders:
- Oettinger
- DeSmith
Power Play 1: Robertson – Hintz – Rantanen, Johnston – Heiskanen
Power Play 2: Benn – Duchene – Seguin, Bourque – Harley
Penalty Kill 1: Blackwell – Steel, Lindell – Lyubushkin
Penalty Kill 2: Back – Johnston, Harley – Heiskanen
Key Matchups: Where the Blues Hold the Edge
The Blues-Stars rivalry should see an interesting chapter added to the books with Dallas' changes, but St. Louis' depth and defensive upgrades could position them to come out on top:
- Pavel Buchnevich vs. Jason Robertson: Buchnevich, primed for a 25-30 goal bounce-back with elite two-way play, is perfectly suited to play shut down duties against Robertson's scoring. As long as he returns to forms, his PK skills and versatility give the Blues a clear advantage, especially with Marchment gone, leaving Dallas' wings less protected.
- Colton Parayko vs. Miro Heiskanen: Parayko's towering presence and shutdown ability will disrupt Heiskanen's transitions. Along with Philip Broberg and Logan Mailloux, the Blues' blue line can focus on containing Dallas' puck-movers, taking full advantage of the Stars' lost defensive depth.
- Depth Battle: St. Louis' loaded middle-six with Holloway, Schenn, Neighbours, and Snuggerud overmatches Dallas' unproven group. The Blues can grind down Faksa and Blackwell, looking to capitalize on the Stars' losses of Dadonov and Granlund for sustained pressure and secondary scoring.
Dallas' Strengths and Weaknesses:
Dallas' Strengths:
- Offensive Firepower: Stars like Robertson, Johnston (33G, 71PTS), and Duchene (30G, 82PTS) pack a punch, with Rantanen adding his strong finishing abilities with a career 16.0%.
- Goaltending Excellence: Jake Oettinger is elite. Along with backup DeSmith, they’ll add a true goaltending tandem that will test the Blues.
Dallas' Weaknesses:
- Depth Scoring Gaps: Without Marchment (22G) and Dadonov (20G), reliance on Bourque (11G, 25PTS) and Steel leaves holes that the Blues' depth can overwhelm.
- Blue-Line Physicality: Ceci and Dumba's exits mean fewer hits and blocks, allowing Blues hitters like Holloway and Schenn to wear down young defenders like Bichsel. There will be physicality, there’s not doubt about that. The loss of their veterans, however, make matters very interesting.
- Injury Risks: Aging vets Benn (35) and Seguin (33, just 20 GP last season) have become fragile, and cap limits restrict fixes giving St. Louis an edge in long series or seasons.
What to Expect in 2025-26: Blues Poised to Outshine the Stars
Gulutzan's Stars aim for 100+ points and a top-three Central spot, leveraging 2024-25's success. But additions like Faksa and Kolyachonok can't mask the losses of Marchment, Granlund, Dadonov, Ceci, and Dumba, making them less robust than last year's finalists.
For Blues fans, this spells opportunity: St. Louis' depth, youth, and physicality give them the tools to expose Dallas in tight games and rivalries.
If players like Snuggerud can thrive and the team can keep a healthy lineup, the Blues could not only match but surpass the Stars, pushing for a top-three spot in the division.