The Colorado Avalanche enter the 2025-26 season as a Central Division powerhouse, led by superstars Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. However, offseason roster changes have thinned their depth, raising questions about their ability to dominate game-to-game, especially against a gritty St. Louis Blues squad.
Using data from the Avalanche’s 2024-25 season and PuckPedia’s projected lineups, lets break down the Avalanche’s offseason moves, key matchups against the Blues, and what to expect in this mile-high rivalry.
Key Additions
- Brent Burns (D): Signed to a one-year, $1 million contract (plus $3 million in bonuses), the 40-year-old defenseman brings playoff experience and offensive flair. Burns likely slots into the third pairing with Sam Malinski and the second power-play unit, adding stability to a blue line hit by departures.
- Alex Barre-Boulet (C): Signed a one-year, two-way contract. Barre-Boulet, a skilled AHL scorer, is a depth forward likely to shuttle between the NHL and AHL Colorado Eagles. His potential for 10-15 points in a bottom-six role could provide spot scoring, though he’ll need to outshine competitors like Ivan Ivan to secure minutes against St. Louis’s tough checking lines.
- Gavin Brindley (F): Acquired in the Coyle/Wood trade, the 20-year-old forward prospect is AHL-bound but has high upside after a strong NCAA career. Brindley’s speed and playmaking could earn him a call-up if injuries hit.
- Danil Gushchin (F): Acquired for Oskar Olausson and signed to a one-year, two-way deal, Gushchin is another AHL prospect with offensive potential. His puck-handling could make him a dark-horse bottom-six option.
Key Subtractions
- Charlie Coyle (C): Coyle’s 2 G, 11 A in 19 games and 47.4% faceoff win rate were valuable for third-line stability. His $5.25 million cap hit was shed to free up space, but his departure weakens Colorado’s faceoff prowess and defensive forward play.
- Jonathan Drouin (LW): Drouin’s 11 G, 26 A in 43 games provided secondary scoring. His exit leaves a gap in the middle-six, forcing reliance on players like Victor Olofsson, who may struggle against St. Louis’s physical defense.
- Miles Wood (LW): Wood’s 4 G, 4 A, and 48 PIM in 37 games brought energy and physicality. His absence reduces Colorado’s forechecking intensity.
- Oskar Olausson (RW): Olausson (0 G, 0 A in 2 GP) was a low-impact prospect, but his trade for Gushchin reflects a shift toward players with higher offensive ceilings. This has little immediate effect against the Blues but signals future-focused roster building.
- Jimmy Vesey (LW): Vesey’s 1 G, 1 A in 10 games offered minimal production, but his departure further thins the bottom-six, leaving players like Parker Kelly to face tougher matchups.
- Ryan Lindgren (D): Lindgren’s 2 G, 3 PTS, and 26 BLK in 18 games provided defensive reliability. His exit strains the blue line’s depth, potentially exposing Colorado to Blues forwards like Jordan Kyrou in transition.
- Calle Rosen (D): Rosen’s departure removes a puck-moving depth defenseman and increases the burden on other defenders like Samuel Girard, Burns and Malinski.
Impact on Depth
The Avalanche’s offseason moves prioritized cap flexibility ($7.75 million cleared from Coyle/Wood) and veteran experience (Burns, Nelson) but sacrificed depth. The loss of players like Coyle, Drouin, Wood, Vesey, Lindgren, and Rosen leaves the bottom-six and defensive depth vulnerable, with players like Ivan and Malinski forced into larger roles. Prospects like Brindley and Gushchin are likely not yet NHL-ready, meaning Colorado could rely heavily on their top lines and goaltending to outshine opponents like the Blues.
Projected Lineup and Special Teams
Per PuckPedia, the Avalanche’s lineup reflects their top-heavy approach:
Forwards:
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas
- Landeskog – Nelson – Nichushkin
- Olofsson – Colton – Kiviranta
- Kelly – Drury – Ivan
Defense:
- Toews – Makar
- Girard – Manson
- Malinski – Burns
Goaltenders:
- Blackwood
- Wedgewood
Key Matchups vs. St. Louis Blues
The Avalanche-Blues rivalry will hinge on critical matchups, possibly dictated more by Colorado’s thinner depth and offseason decisions by both teams:
- Nathan MacKinnon vs. Robert Thomas: MacKinnon’s 116 points and 49.9% faceoff win rate give him a clear edge over Thomas. However, Coyle’s departure weakens Colorado’s faceoff depth, allowing Thomas to exploit neutral-zone battles when given the chance to matchup against other lines. MacKinnon’s speed will test St. Louis’s defense, but Thomas’s playmaking could keep games close.
- Cale Makar vs. Colton Parayko: Makar’s 30 goals and 25:43 ATOI outshine Parayko. No contest. However, Lindgren and Rosen’s exits increase Makar’s burden, potentially exposing him to physical Blues forwards like Schenn. Burns’s addition helps, but his age may limit effectiveness against St. Louis’s speedsters like Kyrou.
- Mackenzie Blackwood vs. Jordan Binnington: Blackwood’s 0.913 SV% and 2.33 GAA (37 GP) edge out Binnington if Blackwood can repeat his 2024-25 performance with the Avalanche. Wedgewood’s 0.917 SV% and 1.99 GAA from 2024-25 should provide a strong backup or 1B option.
- Bottom-Six Battle: Colorado’s fourth line (Kelly–Drury–Ivan) lacks the scoring punch of departed players like Drouin and Coyle, making them vulnerable to St. Louis’s emerging depth (Holloway, Snuggerud).
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Top-End Firepower: MacKinnon, Makar, and Necas (11 G, 17 A in 30 GP) drive a dynamic offense, with Nichushkin (21 G, 17.8% SPCT) and Lehkonen (18.2% SPCT) adding efficiency.
- Goaltending Tandem: Blackwood and Wedgewood are a top-tier duo, capable of stealing games against the Blues’ inconsistent offense.
- Veteran Additions: Burns and Nelson bring playoff know-how, offering stabilizing presence to their special teams and mentoring younger players.
Weaknesses:
- Thinner Depth: Losing Coyle, Drouin, Wood, Vesey, Lindgren, and Rosen depletes the bottom-six and third-pair defense. Players like Ivan and Malinski may struggle against St. Louis’s physicality.
- Faceoff Struggles: Without Coyle’s 47.4% FO%, Colorado relies heavily on MacKinnon (49.9%) and Drury (56.6%), who may face challenges against Thomas, Schenn, and Suter.
- Aging Core: Burns (40) and Nelson (34) risk fatigue, potentially exposing Colorado in back-to-back games against the Blues’ younger, energetic lineup with players like Holloway, Snuggerud, Neighbours to cash in on any mistake they may force.
Game-to-Game Impact vs. Blues
The Avalanche’s offseason moves create a top-heavy roster that excels in high-skill matchups but may falter in grind-it-out games against the Blues. Here’s how the changes affect game-to-game play:
- Offensive Firepower vs. Defensive Grit: MacKinnon, Necas, and Nichushkin will exploit St. Louis’s defense in transition, especially against slower blueliners. However, the loss of Wood and Drouin means Colorado’s third and fourth lines may struggle to sustain pressure against St. Louis’s checking lines.
- Defensive Vulnerabilities: Without Lindgren and Rosen, Colorado’s blue line leans heavily on Makar and Toews. Burns adds a good level of experience, but his age could be a liability against Kyrou and Holloway’s speed.
- Special Teams Edge: Colorado’s power play, led by MacKinnon and Makar, will find ways to capitalize on St. Louis’s penalty kill, the same as they will against every team. The Blues will need to avoid letting them have the man-advantage. However, the Avalanche’s penalty kill was weakened by Coyle’s exit and may struggle against the Blues’ power play.
- Goaltending Advantage: Blackwood and Wedgewood give Colorado an edge over Binnington and Joel Hofer, especially in low-scoring games. The biggest question is if the Colorado netminders can repeat their 2024-25 performances over the full season. If St. Louis’s depth players generate high-danger chances, Colorado’s thinner bottom-six could leave their goaltenders exposed.
What to Expect in 2025-26
The Avalanche remain among the top Central Division favorites, projected for 100+ points, thanks to MacKinnon, Makar, and a strong goaltending tandem. Additions like Burns, Nelson, and prospects Brindley and Gushchin don’t necessarily raise their ceiling but don’t hurt them either.
However, the loss of Coyle, Drouin, Wood, Vesey, Lindgren, and Rosen makes them less resilient in grueling matchups against teams like the Blues. Against St. Louis, Colorado’s top lines and special teams should dominate, but their weaker bottom-six and defensive depth could be exploited in tight, physical games. If Barre-Boulet or a prospect like Brindley steps up, the Avalanche could mitigate their depth issues. For now, they’re a certainly a postseason contender and a could push for a Stanley Cup if all of the chips fall their way.