Since arriving in St. Louis in 2021, Pavel Buchnevich has been a cornerstone of the Blues’ forward group, bringing elite playmaking, two-way reliability, and a knack for high-danger scoring. However, the Russian winger’s production has trended downward each year, raising questions about whether he can reclaim his status as a top-six force.
With a full season under head coach Jim Montgomery’s fast-paced, offensive system in 2025-26, Buchnevich has faced a point where he needs to prove he’s worth his $8 million cap hit and a key piece of the Blues’ future playoff push.
A Steady Decline in Production
When the Blues acquired Buchnevich from the New York Rangers in 2021, he was coming off a career-high 76-point season in 73 games and quickly became a fan favorite boasting a +29 rating and a 52.8% Corsi For percentage (CF%). His chemistry with Robert Thomas and Vladimir Tarasenko fueled a dynamic top line, and his 2.73 shots per game showed his ability to generate offense.
However, the following seasons told a different story. In 2022-23, Buchnevich’s output dipped to 26 goals and 67 points in 63 games, a respectable 1.06 points per game (PPG) but a step back from his peak. The 2023-24 season saw further regression, with 63 points in 80 games (0.79 PPG), and last season, 2024-25, marked a career-low with the Blues: 20 goals, 37 assists, and 57 points in 76 games (0.75 PPG). His shot volume fell to 1.91 shots per game, and his shooting percentage (13.8%) remained solid but didn’t compensate for the reduced opportunities.
This downward trend isn’t just a statistical blip. Buchnevich’s 2024-25 season was arguably kickstarted by an ill-advised experiment at center by former head coach, Drew Bannister. The transition disrupted his rhythm, and a midseason coaching change from Bannister to Jim Montgomery brought positive change, but change nonetheless to acclimate to. Despite strong possession metrics (52.0% CF%), his goal-scoring—once a substantial part of his game—dropped significantly from his 27-30 goal pace in prior years.
The Case for a Hopeful Rebound for Buchnevich
At 30 years old, Buchnevich is at a career crossroads. His six-year, $48 million extension signed before the 2024-25 season shows the Blues’ belief in his ability to return to form.
Buchnevich’s return to the wing, likely alongside Robert Thomas and rookie standout Jimmy Snuggerud, sets Buchnevich up for a big return offensively. With the elite playmaking ability of Thomas along with Snuggerud’s emergence as a goal-scoring threat, this could open up space for Buchnevich to exploit. This projected first line combines offensive firepower with defensive reliability, aligning perfectly with Montgomery’s system that should be dividends for the Blues and Buchnevich.
Jim Montgomery’s Impact
Montgomery’s arrival as head coach midway through 2024-25 brought a shift to a fast-paced, transition-heavy style that plays to Buchnevich’s strengths. During Montgomery’s stint as an assistant coach with the Blues from 2020-22, Buchnevich thrived, posting his career-high 76 points in 2021-22. His emphasis on speed, quick breakouts, and offensive creativity should help Buchnevich rediscover his scoring touch.
Montgomery’s system rewards players who can drive play and create in high-danger areas, qualities Buchnevich has shown throughout his career. His ability to read the ice, combined with his 6’1”, 196-pound frame, makes him a versatile weapon in transition and on the power play, where he tallied 12 points last season. However, competition for top-six and power-play roles is fierce, with young stars like Dylan Holloway (63 points in 2024-25) and Jordan Kyrou (70 points) vying for ice time. Buchnevich must capitalize on Montgomery’s system to fend off challenges from emerging talents like Jake Neighbours and Snuggerud.
The Stakes for 2025-26
Buchnevich’s regression has coincided with the Blues’ struggle to secure a consistent playoff spot. Despite a solid, albeit aging defensive core and goaltending tandem of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer, St. Louis ranked 13th in goals per game (3.05) in 2024-25, an area that could find itself among the top 10 in the NHL with the forward depth and an offensive rebound from Buchnevich. His ability to rebound to a 20-25 goal, 65-70 point pace could be the difference between a playoff berth and another early offseason.
The Blues’ management, led by Doug Armstrong, doubled down on Buchnevich with his long-term extension, but questions linger. Some analysts suggest his $8 million cap hit could become a burden, despite the rising salary cap, if his production continues to slide.
Buchnevich’s 2025-26 season is not one of a “make-or-break moment”, but certainly one that will be hyper focused upon as he now enters into a new contract and is the third-highest paid player on the team.
After three years of statistical regression, the 30-year-old winger has the tools, the linemates, and the coaching to reclaim his place among the NHL’s elite top-six forwards. Under Montgomery’s guidance, the Blues are poised for an offensive resurgence, and Buchnevich must be among those who lead the charge. If he can reclaim his playmaking and thrive in a system tailored to his strengths, he’ll prove he’s still one of the top offensive members of the Blues to bet on. If not, the Blues may face tough decisions about their star forward’s future and keep their $8 million forward on the second or even third line in favor of younger talent. Buchnevich is locked in to a full no-trade clause for the next four years. If he cannot find his offensive side again, it could be a long four years for a contract that would not age well.