I’ll be able to write a better and more complete column about the Cardinals’ moves (or non-moves) at the trade deadline when I have the time to fully process it all. That will be in Friday’s Redbird Review. I have some in-progress thoughts to share for now.
1. The Rebuild: As I said in my Thursday “Bernie Show”, it’s clear to me that the Cardinals are rebuilding. Look, this franchise isn’t about to go diving into a complete and merciless teardown job, demo their roster, and relegate themselves to several consecutive seasons of extreme losing … like losing 95 to 105 games over three of four years in a row. Won’t happen. Doesn’t have to happen.
2. The Cardinals can maintain respectability and do it without making false promises about contending. It’s time to stop with that nonsense. It’s time to make decisions that are sharply focused on what’s the best way to deliver a more successful future. It’s time to stop with these half-measure roster steps that are made to convince fans that you’re trying to compete and get to the playoffs. Making these insincere commitments – and staying stuck in the middle – only leaves the fan base more disappointed, disillusioned and ticked off.
3. The Cardinals have enough talent on hand to put a decent team on the field. But they can’t afford to veer off track with reckless, short-term thinking because they're nervous about fans getting mad at them. Fans already are mad at them. But by staying in the mediocre middle, the Cardinals will only generate more anger among fans that buy tickets or subscriptions to their streaming service.
4. The Cards must add talent the right way … even though the process will take more time. But at least there will be an actual plan in place. The Cardinals must develop their own talent, and collect additional young talent in trades with other teams. And keep running that cycle over and over again. Play the long game. Keep your eye on the bigger picture, and don’t try to hide it. Be honest about that. Just tell the damn truth for once and say a rebuild is the best way back to where you want to be.
5. We’ve seen great baseball teams go through these downturns, but the smart orgs limit their time as non-contenders by increasing the supply of young talent that will be there, front and center, when your team is ready to win again. The sooner you start, the faster you will get there. Putting this off is incredibly stupid and only makes the overall task more difficult. Bloom can do this deliberately, but he won’t stall and chicken out.
6. As they rebuild, the Cardinals will be attacked by the one-issue fans who are utterly obsessed by payroll size and nothing else. Most of these folks already know The DeWitts aren’t going to match payroll dollars (especially) with the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets – but also the Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. But here’s the thing: they don’t have to do that. They can win by drafting and developing and being smarter than most teams.
7. Will anyone in this town ever pay close attention to the miracle that continues in Milwaukee and has been going on for nearly a decade. The Brewers win because of their incredibly intelligent front office that makes wise payroll investments and finds hidden value in other places – getting players that basically leaves everyone shrugging … What was that all about? Why did the Brewers do that?
8. Because they are smarter than you. That’s why. And it’s also why the 2025 Brewers have the best record in baseball this season while spending $113 million on payroll. Just $113 million! That ranks 23rd in the majors. This is why another smart baseball operation – in Detroit – is tied for the third-best record in MLB with a payroll ($155.6 million) that ranks 17th in the majors.
8. Closer to home, the Brewers have been embarrassing the Cardinals and Cubs since the start of the 2017 season by spending a lot less on payroll – but winning more games than their two rivals anyway. Since the start of the ‘17 campaign, only the Dodgers have won more regular season games than the Brewers among National League teams. Milwaukee’s .560 winning percentage over the last nine seasons tops St. Louis (.525) and Chicago (.521.)
9. This is Chaim Bloom’s No. 1 assignment: build a baseball operation that is smarter than the group up there in Wisconsin. And if the Cardinals can be as smart about the business of team building as the Brewers are, then the Cardinals can use their larger revenue advantage to win more than Milwaukee. But that won’t happen as long as the Cardinals remain stupid. And as hard as it might be, the Cardinals under Bloom must remain disciplined and tune out the noise coming from fans who want them to remain stupid by incinerating payroll dollars on horrible roster-construction choices. You don’t win the fans back spending like idiots on payroll. You win them back by being really, really smart in the front office – and once you get stocked with enough good, homegrown talent – then it’s time to spend more. And the spending will be handled wisely.
10. And make no mistake, the rebuild under Chaim Bloom is underway. The obvious signal came with the Ryan Helsley trade. The Cardinals zeroed in on three young prospects who were playing for the Mets’ High-A league team. The Cardinals didn’t go for any marginal or fringy or low-value major-league types with a “name” who could help in the short term. No, the Cardinals specifically targeted three young prospects that have talent and upside. It will take a while for any of them to reach our shores, but so what?
Bloom is focused on the future and has no interest in half-measure stopgap moves that turned the Cardinals into a mediocre franchise that had no plan. Bloom is looking for a much bigger payoff down the road because that will pull the Cardinals out of the mediocre Mozeliak Middle. That’s why he went for Class High-A prospects with higher ceilings.
11. Do it right … even if means going slowly. In trading Helsley and Matz, Bloom added three new players to the team’s Top 30 Prospect List: infielder Jesus Baez (No. 6), pitcher Nate Dohm (No. 15) and power hitter Blaze Jordan (No. 19.) Baez and Dohm came from the Mets; Jordan was playing for Boston’s Triple A team.
12. Jordan was drafted by Bloom – as a 17-year old high school power hitter – in 2020. Given Bloom’s success in drafting-developing while running Boston’s baseball operation, I liked seeing him go get Jordan for the Cardinals.
13. Since the start of the 2023 season the Cardinals’ .482 winning percentage ranks 22nd among the 30 MLB franchises. Only four National League teams – Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington and Colorado – have done worse than St. Louis over the last two-plus seasons. So why would anyone want this organization to keep playing MozBall? Why is that a good idea?
Bloom is choosing a lane, and he’s doing so with a purpose, and he’s doing it without blowing everything to smithereens. It will take time for the Bloom-run Cardinals to do it this way, but they'll likely be in much better shape when they come through it.
ON NOLAN ARENADO
Nolan Arenado is “bummed.” That’s according to John Denton at MLB.com. Ryan Helsley was Nado’s best friend on the team, and the emotional third baseman wasn’t happy to see Helsley shipped to Queens, New York.
Arenado recently discussed his situation with Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to discuss the possibility of expanding Nado’s list of acceptable trade locations. Their convo stayed between Mozeliak and Arenado.
“We’ll see,” Arenado told Denton. “I’ve got some things to take care of first. It’ll probably be fine (staying with the Cardinals) but we’ll let it play out and see where it goes.”
This was a curious comment from Arenado because I don’t understand what Arenado expects. He’s 34 years old, and his bat is pretty much dead. He’s having a career-worst season offensively, and the decline has turned extreme.
In July Arenado batted .175 with a .211 slugging percentage and .440 OPS. Per wRC+, he was 74 percent below league average offensively for the month. Since the start of May this season, Arenado is 26 percent below the league average offensively.
Going back to the start of September 2024, Arenado has homered just 11 times in 491 plate appearances. None of these depressing numbers will improve in a lasting way. He’s owed $42 million over the next two seasons, and he’ll be 36 by the end of the contract.
Sure, Arenado’s defense is good, and above average, but there’s slippage that goes unrecognized locally. Since the start of 2022, this is where Arenado ranked each season in Fielding Run Value. With FRV, the higher the better, with 100 being the best.
2022: 96
2023: 75
2024: 86
2025: 66
I do understand Arenado’s frustration. But he had a chance to move to a winning team last offseason, and vetoed a trade to the Astros. After Houston traded Kyle Tucker, Arenado didn’t see the Astros as a contender. Well, they are a contender. The Astros lead the AL West by five games and have the No. 3 winning percentage (.569) in the American League. Without a last-minute intervention, a trade, Arenado is stuck with the Cardinals. That isn’t good for him or the team.
Arenado’s deteriorating offense is a factor in the team’s collapse. That shouldn’t be overlooked. The Cards crested at nine games over .500 (47-38) on June 29. From that point they’ve won only 8 of 25 games for a .320 winning percentage that ranks 28th among the 30 teams.
And over the last 25 games Arenado has missed time with injuries or fatigue. And when he’s played Arenado has batted .167 with a .200 slug, two RBIs and no homers in 64 plate appearances. He hasn’t homered since June 22.
I do not say this to be cruel, but why would Arenado believe he’d be a coveted player in a trade? The Cardinals have entered into an unofficial rebuild. Nado could have avoided this but opted to reject an Astros team that really wanted him. And there was a market for third basemen. Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen several third baseman get transferred in trades: Ryan McMahon, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Eugenio Suarez, Roman Urias. Plus other infielders who can be used at third like Amed Rosario.
I’ll write more on deadline-related stuff tomorrow.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.