The Cardinals spent the weekend in Arizona as a fading contender, getting slapped around, falling down, and encircled by venomous rattlesnakes. There was no getting away, no escaping.
The Cardinals were exposed and attacked and put up no resistance while getting swept in a three-game ordeal.
I was surprised by how easily the Cardinals surrendered. After manager Oli Marmol spent so much time before the All-Star break talking about how many players were “banged up” and in need of a rest – which applies the other 29 MLB teams as well – the Cardinals returned from four scheduled days off and had no energy, no urgency and nothing to offer except their horrendous starting pitching and an impotent offense.
In that context the wipeout was hardly stunning. As I’ve been talking and writing about at STL Sports Central for a while now, the Redbirds have been trending in a downward direction. And this is what happens when a failing team has a rotation in tatters and a lineup of slow, ineffectual bats.
The uncompetitive Cardinals did not have the lead for one moment during 27 innings of baseball. After getting outscored 22-7 by Arizona overall – including 16-0 in the first three innings of the three games – the Cardinals retreat to Colorado for a three-game series against the sad-sack Rockies.
But before we assume anything about what should transpire at Coors Field, just note that the Cardinals and Rockies are both 4-6 in the last 10 games. And please note that it’s the Cardinals – not the Rox – who have the worst starting pitching in the majors these days. And I’ll have more on that in a bit.
The Cardinals are 3 and ½ games out of the NL’s third wild-card spot, and I suppose we see that and view them as contenders. But the growing pile of evidence tells us otherwise. The Cardinals may be a contender if we go by the standings math, but a closer inspection leads to a much different conclusion.
Just a few questions about the Cardinals being a legitimate contender:
1) Does a legitimate contender rank 11th in the National League in winning percentage since May 30? That’s the Cardinals.
2) Does a legitimate contender have the MLB’s worst starting pitching – with a 5.70 ERA – since May 30? Or how about a 5.80 starting-pitching ERA since June 8, or a 7.80 starter ERA since June 30, or a virulent 7.48 starter ERA in July? That’s the Cardinals.
3) Does a legitimate contender get blown out early in too many games? In losing 11 of their last 15 games, the Cardinals have been outscored 49-18 in the first three innings and have been strafed for a 9.00 ERA, 17 homers, a .327 batting average and .679 slug.
4) Does a legitimate contender have a minus 43 run differential in its last 44 games, or a minus 30 run differential in its last 30 games, or a preposterous minus 39 run differential in the last 15 games?
5) Does a legitimate contender have an offense that’s scored three runs or fewer in a game 48 percent of the time since May 30? Or how about scoring no more than three runs in 10 of their last 20 games? Or plating no more than a run in seven of the last 20 games?
6) Does a legitimate contender have an offense that ranks 29th in runs, 28th in OPS, and 28th in slugging since sweeping the Guardians on the weekend of June 27-29?
7) Does a legitimate contender fail to hit a home run in 43 of their first 100 games this season – the second-highest total of no-homer games by a National League team? Only Pittsburgh has gone homerless more often than St. Louis.
8) But aren’t there other ways of scoring runs? Legitimate contenders should be able to do that, right? Agreed. Absolutely. Take the Brewers (59-40) for example. The Crew have the best record in the majors – 38-15! – since May 18. They’re 23rd in home runs per game this season – but, hey, no worries. Over their last 53 games the Brewers lead the National League in stolen bases, walks, and on-base percentage. They are second over that time among NL teams in batting average and OPS with runners in scoring position. And they are second among NL clubs (for the season) in productive-out percentage. And the Brewers also rank above the Cardinals in defensive efficiency rating, converting 71 percent of batted balls in play into outs.
Ah, but you came here to read about the Cardinals, who have been getting embarrassed by the division-rival Brewers since the start of 2017.
And I present all of this information to make a point here: this is not a good baseball team. It has turned into a bad baseball team since the St. Louis starting pitching collapsed 44 games ago. The offense comes up empty so many times it is impossible for the hitters to rescue their team’s battered starting pitchers. This is a formula for disaster, and that’s what we saw over the weekend in Arizona.
It is not a good baseball team just going by simple-form math.
The Cardinals are: 1-5 in the last six games., 4-11 in the last 15, have lost 21 of their last 36, and have won only 19 of their last 44.
On top of that, the Cardinals have lost four of their last five series and have won only five of their last 14 series.
They are trending poorly on the road (1-8 in the last nine) and at home (7-10 in the last 17.)
With all of that in mind, it’s time to suspend the incessant trade-deadline babbling and throw down an unmistakable conclusion. What should the Cardinals do?
SELL
SELL
SELL
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has an easy decision here – so ridiculously easy I doubt that he can mess it up.
+ The relievers on expiring contracts – Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Seven Matz – must be traded. Get it done.
+ Lefty reliever JoJo Romero, who has an 0.42 ERA since April 27, is an obvious trade candidate. As I wrote here last week, Romero is cost controlled through 2026 which gives him extra value because interested teams know they’ll have him under contract for next season.
+ All of those front offices that lust for Lars Nootbaar’s statcast metrics? If they’re still ga-ga over Noot, then take advantage of the opportunity to trade him. Again: if there’s a beneficial offer that can help your team moving forward.
+ As I said in my Monday video, Mozeliak should make every player available. I’m not saying “Trade Everybody” … I’m saying make everyone available to gauge the interest in them. Maybe some desperate teams out there will make a generous offer for a player that the Cardinals can’t turn down.
+ What makes me nervous, however, is the knowledge that Mozeliak would be making such a trade.
This is a time for action – pivoting from the phlegmatic “buy or sell” stewing, and heading straight into the offload mode. This is so simple that anyone could do it – except I don’t know if John Mozeliak can or will do it.
BIRD BYTES
— Individual starting-pitching ERAs since June 30: Andre Pallante 6.11, Miles Mikolas 7.47, Sonny Gray 7.64, Matthew Liberatore 9.00, Erick Fedde 10.64.
— So, the Cardinals finally realized Liberatore was running low on fuel, which has been happening over an eight-start stretch that included a swollen 6.15 ERA and plummeting 15.6 percent strikeout rate? Why didn’t manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake give Libby a breather sooner. They’ve done a good job with a vulnerable rotation but perhaps Liberatore could have been handled differently.
— Which is really easy for me to say. Marmol is managing a team that has a president of baseball operations that apparently would put his life on the line to prevent Fedde and Mikolas from getting bounced from the rotation. No, Mozeliak wouldn’t put his life on the line. But he has put his reputation on the line and the result? BOOM. Gone.
— It’s common for teams to skip the occasional start to slow down the innings-load progression. It’s hardly radical. But this team won’t even consider going with the occasional all-bullpen game to have the starter in his normal turn. But the Cardinals won’t even consider that, even though they’ve actually cultivated a much deeper bullpen. And if the starting pitchers are opposed to this? Too damn bad. These guys have lost any credibility that remained in terms of dictating how they’ll be used.
— Let’s talk about Sonny Gray. In his two seasons as a Cardinal, Gray has a 2.81 ERA in 28 starts at Busch Stadium and a 5.45 ERA in 20 road starts.
— Gray has allowed 0.5 home runs per nine innings at home, and 1.9 homes per nine innings on the road. The slugging percentage against Gray at Busch Stadium is .334. On the road, that slug is a heavy .590
— I’m not being a phony here; I really do respect Gray. But when the home-road splits are that extreme, then he isn’t a true ace. He does, however, pitch like an ace at Busch Stadium.
— And by the way: I’m not overreacting to Gray getting beaten up by the Diamondbacks on Saturday. I was all over Gary’s home/road split last season when he was blasted for 16 home runs and a .509 slugging percentage in 12 roadies.
— Signs of a waning St. Louis offense, in the form of OPS ranking in the majors each month 8th in March-April, 14th in May, 20th in June, 24th in July.
— I applaud the STL bullpen. No complaints here. Since the start of May, Cards relievers rank fourth in the majors with a 3.39 ERA and are second with a 3.49 fielding independent ERA.
— Kudos to righty reliever Riley O’Brien, who has a 0.87 ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate in 20 and ⅔ innings since June 5.
--- Two other younger relievers have come on well. Right-hander Gordon Graceffo (9 IP) has a 1.00 ERA in his last four appearances. And since June 3, righty reliever Matt Svanson has a 2.60 ERA in 17 and ⅓ innings over 10 appearances.
--- Rookie righty Andre Granillo has a 1.35 ERA in five appearances for the Cardinals but has been at Triple A Memphis since late June. In six appearances since being sent down, Granillo hasn’t allowed a run in 6 and ⅓ innings. And Triple A hitters have a .100 batting average and 35% strikeout rate vs. Granillo in July.
— In his last 14 games, Nolan Arenado went 9 for 49 (.184) with a .461 OPS.
I’m finished typing now.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.