As the baseball cycle returns to normal after the All-Star Break, I’ve got a lot of loose thoughts and stray stats running around in my head, and I believe it’s time to let them out.
So with that in mind …
PERFORMANCE PRIORITIES
1. The starting pitching must improve, and by a lot. Matthew Liberatore is the guy who can make this rotation better – or, if he can’t find his earlier form, the rotation will continue to struggle.
2. The offense, boosted by the return of the magnificent Ivan Herrera, must reduce the number of times the Cardinals score two or fewer runs in a game. And as I wrote earlier this week, the Cards average 5.04 runs per game this season when Herrera is in the starting lineup – and 4.1 runs when he doesn’t start.
3. The Cardinals have to diversify their offensive approach. Do more along the lines of aggressive baserunning, utilizing small ball, making stuff happen. That’s necessary when you rank 23rd among 30 teams in Isolated Power. You can’t wait for home runs to come.
4. Nolan Gorman must play and play and play when a right-handed starter is on the mound for the other side. Messing with Gorman now and disrupting his confidence when he’s put together a positive six-week stretch – Well, that’s not a good idea. And Oli Marmol knows this.
5. If Jordan Walker doesn’t hit, he shouldn’t be a lineup regular. If the Cardinals fall out of the playoff race, then Walker should play every day after that to get as many reps as he can.
6. Ryan Helsley has to pitch more often. If the Cardinals are legitimately in the race, and Ryan Helsley is still with them, then he’s got to pitch more. The “Ryan Rules” are absurd. He’s had streaks of four or more days in between appearances 11 times this season. He’s pitched only five times when the game is tied in the 9th or 10th inning. Knowing all of that, is there any surprise when Helsley enters a game and isn’t sharp?
7. Yohel Pozo should start more games at catcher. I have great respect for the positive influence that Pedro Pages has on St. Louis pitchers. But Pozo is substantially better than Pages offensively. Pozo plays respectable defense. The Cardinals have played 88 games since Pozo was promoted from Memphis – and he’s started at catcher only 20 times. When he starts Pozo has a .270 batting average and .436 slugging percentage.
THREE CARDINALS WHO CAN DO BETTER OVER FINAL 65 GAMES
And it doesn’t mean that these players stink; I just think they have the talent to produce more than they have offensively.
1. Masyn Winn: in his last 473 plate appearances going back to late last season, Winn has a .237 average and an on-base percentage (.292) that’s 15 percent below the MLB average. The overall league OPS over that time is .714, and Winn has a .665 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .664 OPS vs. lefties. I think he should be better than that. Winn has been at his best when hitting 8th or 9th in the lineup over the last two seasons, posting a wRC+ that’s 40 percent above league average offensively. When batting 1st or 2nd over the last two seasons, Winn is just 3 percent above league average.
A positive? Winn has exceptional numbers this season when he pulls pitches to the left side of the field – batting .407 with a .717 slug. And all seven of his home runs in 2025 have been pull shots. The public perception is that Winn is more effective when he hits to the opposite field. But over his last two seasons Winn has pulled the ball in 282 at-bats, and the outcome is a .401 average, .730 slug, 20 homers and 33 doubles. If anything he should tap into his pull-side power more often, even if he strikes out more often. But Winn’s overall strikeout rate since the start of last season is only 17.4 percent and that isn’t a problem.
2. Willson Contreras: He’s still a productive, above-average hitter, and his Statcast metrics are strong in bat speed, hard-hit rate, and sweet-spot contact. And compared to last season, Contreras has lowered his strikeout rate, and his chase rate, in 2025. This should add up to stronger results. But performing 40 percent above league average per wRC+ last season, Contreras is 18% above average this season – and his slugging percentage (.426) is down by 42 points from 2024. Contreras still punishes fastballs, but one significant factor is a lower average exit velocity this season. Bottom line: Contreras was in the 80th percentile for Statcast batting run value in 2024, and he’s dropped to the 55th percentile so far in ‘25.
3. Lars Nootbaar: His overall Statcast profile remains impressive, but we’ve seen changes that are working against him in 2025: an increase in chasing pitches out of the zone, a higher whiff-swing percentage, and an increase in strikeouts. The erosion of plate discipline isn’t drastic – but it is a problem. Nootbaar’s OPS+ is exactly league average (100) this season, but that’s a decline of 15 percent from his OPS+ over the previous three years.
LOOKING AT THE ODDS
Here’s the Cardinals’ probability of making the playoffs from three different projection models:
Baseball Prospectus, 23.3%
FanGraphs, 28.9%
Clay Davenport, 36.2%
We’ll know a lot after the next 13 games. The Cardinals have a six-game roadie to Arizona and Colorado, and return home for seven games against the Padres (4) and Marlins (3). And then, it’s Trade Deadline Day.
SHOPPING AT POLYMARKET
Just for kicks I checked Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market where fans can make “future” wagers on teams to win the World Series.
The Cardinals are one of 16 MLB teams listed with a 1 percent chance of winning the World Series.
The most likely teams to win the World Series, based on the the futures:
Dodgers, 28%
Tigers, 11%
Yankees, 10%
Phillies, 8%
Cubs, 8%
Astros, 7%
Mets, 6%
Mariners, 4%
Brewers, 4%
Blue Jays, 4%
According to the current odds, if you wagered $1 on the Cardinals to win the World Series you’d collect $111. A successful $20 bet on STL produces $2,200 in winnings. A winning $100 wager on the Cardinals to go all the way? You receive $8,486.
MY HOPE FOR JOHN MOZELIAK
Do not overrate your own team, Mo. Do not get swept away by a hopeful but unrealistic belief that the Cardinals can move in for a playoff spot. Mathematically, the Cardinals may have a chance in the wild-card race when their 13-game countdown to the deadline.
But a mathematical chance isn’t a legitimate or strong chance. If there is any doubt at all, then it’s time to sell, sell, sell. Unless, of course there is a way to both buy and sell by July 31. Trying to imagine what a buy-and-sell deadline frenzy would look like for John Mozeliak makes my cranium throb.
ST. LOUIS TRADE ASSETS
And for the purposes of my own sanity, I’m not including any minor-league STL talent in this exercise. But it comes down to this: reliever fever.
1. Ryan Helsley for obvious reasons. And a sharp, big-brained front office will realize that more curveballs will get hitters from expecting – and jumping on – his predictably flat fastball. And surely there is a genius in the Dodgers’ operation who is walking around as we speak, repeating these two words: “Helsley, changeup.” There should be an active market for Helsley. But can Mozeliak disengage from fantasy and plug into reality instead of squandering his final opportunity to improve the Cards’ future talent base by offloading Helsley?
2. Phil Maton for obvious reasons. That said, I have gotten a kick out of local media going absolutely bananas over Maton to the extent that I think they must be talking about Mariano Rivera or one of those electric Kansas City relievers who tased hitters during 2015 postseason.
3. Steven Matz for obvious reasons, but I have a secret … I must point out that the likable lefty has a 5.55 ERA going back to May 14 – which covers his last 17 relief gigs. But we don’t have to tell the other teams about that.
4. JoJo Romero? Yeah, and for reasons that should be really obvious. This is being weirdly ignored, but Uncle Bernie is here to help.
– Since pitching coach Dusty Blake corrected a mechanical flaw in JoJo’s delivery, Romero has an 0.44 ERA in his last 25 appearances, hasn’t allowed any of his 13 inherited runners to score, and has struck out 25.5 percent of batters faced.
– Romero is making $2.6 million this season, and his salary will jump by quite a bit in his third arbitration year (2026) and then he’s eligible for free agency after that. It says here that Romero had added trade value; if a team acquires him now, they have him under contract control through the end of the 2026 season. Unlike Helsley, Matz or Maton, JoJo ain’t a rental.
5. Lars Nootbaar: if there’s a reasonably strong market for his services, Mozeliak should immediately thank the trade partner and agree to the deal before the other team has a change of heart. As noted here many times, the smartest MLB front offices are loaded with Statcast fanboys, Baseball Savant is their Koran, and these people have Jungian fever dreams of Noot. OK, I’m exaggerating a little. A word of caution to the Nootbaar connoisseurs: hire an extra trainer who can help attend to Nootbaar’s ailments.
6. Masyn Winn: sure… if Mozeliak sheds the bow tie, slips into some Crocs, starts talking with a smooth southern drawl like he’s William Faulkner, and begins following Adam Wainwright around on tour the way Bill Walton tailed the Grateful Dead. In other words, Mo would have to step out of his own body and persona – and let’s face it, that extremely difficult process can’t be completed by July 31. Teams have a lot of interest in Winn, but the Cardinals won’t go there.
7. Erick Fedde: ??? !!! Huh? What? Yeah, maybe seven months ago.
8. Nolan Arenado. Will this ever end? This, from John Denton, who covers the Cardinals for MLB.com:
“Could talks with the Astros -- or even the Dodgers, Yankees or Red Sox -- heat up again? The prediction here is a resounding yes.”
Nolan Arenado’s stock is down for many reasons …
– A steep offensive decline that’s reduced his numbers for a third consecutive year. So far this season Arenado has a .246 average, .305 on-base percentage, .388 slug, and a .693 OPS. Those are career lows except for on-base percentage.
– You know who had a .693 OPS during their Cardinal careers? Greg Garcia (.696) and Aaron Miles (.691) were right around that. You know who had a career .388 slugging percentage as a Cardinal that’s close to Arenado’s current slug right now? A bunch of dudes including Kolten Wong, Jon Jay, Eli Marrero and Bo Hart. I’m just trying to offer some perspective here – sorry.
– Arenado is under contract through 2027. He’s 34 now, and he’ll be 35 next season, and 36 in the final year of the deal. He’s recently dealt with finger and shoulder injuries. He has no-trade protection and that’s another obstacle.
– Is Bill DeWitt Jr. willing to eat 50 percent (or more) of Arenado’s remaining contract obligations? What about the considerable deferred payments. I’d be really surprised if they did. And even then, ‘Nado can kill any trade.
There’s value in Arenado’s gold-plated defense, but is that enough to compensate for so many problematic issues? This isn’t about trading for a name. There’s more to it than that. But as I’ve said a few times, some Cardinals fans – and media – overrate the team’s players, and that leads to a distorted view.
Moving on from Arenado would enable the Cards to move Nolan Gorman to third base, so I’m rooting for John Denton to be right. I’ll buy him dinner, his choice, no limits.
I’m also rooting for Arenado to have a hot-hitting stretch to help keep the Cardinals stay close in the wild-card race. Because even though I lay out the facts about where he stands at age 34, I still like to see Arenado do well because he's a proud man who cares about letting the team down if he isn’t hitting.
BIRD BYTES
– If Mozeliak goes into the seller mode and offloads assets, the next three decisions should be (A) J.J. Wetherholt promoted to the majors; (B) Michael McGreevy installed in the starting rotation; (C) Jordan Walker plays right field on most days, because this team MUST decide what to do with him this coming offseason.
– My new favorite loons are the people who insist John Mozeliak will be signing a contract extension to stay on as the baseball boss of the Cardinals. Now, this would be funny but the loons actually seem to believe it. What’s the frequency, Kenneth?
– Here's Baseball America on the Cardinals’ first-day draft choices, and they dubbed it “Tennessee Heat.”
“St. Louis opted for LHP Liam Doyle, who has one of the best fastballs in the entire draft class. They double-dipped on Tennessee pitchers with 70-grade heaters when they grabbed RHP Tanner Franklin in the second comp round. Doing so gives the Cardinals two of the best seven graded fastballs in this draft class.
“The team continued to draft extremely college heavy outside of (high school) outfielder Ryan Mitchell in the second round. Mitchell checks boxes the Cardinals seem to like with his zone recognition and contact skills, and drafting him as an outfielder could allow him to move quicker and let his athleticism play.
– Baseball America also chose right-handed pitcher Ty Van Dyke as the “most interesting” player the Cardinals drafted between rounds 4 and 10. (He was chosen in the 10th round). And shortstop Jalin Flores was the “most interesting" STL draft pick selected in rounds 11 through 20. (He was chosen in round 11.)
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend.
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.