Here’s the deal with the Cardinals and how we see them. It really does depend on your individual perspective.
– If you’re a beautiful-dreamer optimist with Fredbird tendencies, you believe this is a good team which will stun the baseball establishment and make the playoffs … and boo to the critics. You will talk about big-time surprise teams in the St. Louis past.
– If you dislike Bill DeWitt Jr., if you can’t stand Bill DeWitt III, if you despise John Mozeliak, if you believe Oli Marmol is the worst Cards manager since Vern Rapp or maybe Harry Walker, and if you predicted 90+ losses for the Redbirds this season – then you will ignore hot streaks and successes, remain displeased by everyone and everything, search for the clouds in the silver linings, and see a team that will go 20-45 in the final 65 games. You are the type of person who will always move the goalposts when discussing the Cardinals in an attempt to make sure everyone knows that you were right all along, even if you were wrong all along.
You are one of the fine folks who, after seeing another person make a simple remark – “You know, Marmol is doing a pretty good job” – this will set you off like a bottle rocket.
You will rage back with HOW MANY WORLD SERIES HAS MARMOL WON? HOW MANY PENNANTS HAS MARMOL WON? HOW DARE YOU COMPARE HIM TO WHITEY HERZOG!
— If you are a pragmatist with a fair-minded but somewhat skeptical slant – capable of seeing the strengths and the flaws and evaluate the 2025 Cardinals without bringing preexisting bias to the process, then I think you see the Birds as a pretty good team … but not a great team. And you view them as an entertaining but frustrating team. You have come to accept this basic premise: the Cardinals are volatile and unpredictable, so there’s no reason to set your hair on fire over any of this stuff.
— If you are kind of like me, then you sit down at your desk or head to the couch and make two lists: (1) reasons why the Cardinals can make the playoffs and (2) reasons why they won’t make the playoffs.
Hey, that sounds like a swell idea!
Five Reasons Why The Cardinals Can Make The Playoffs
1. Ivan Herrera has returned from the IL. And if El Perro Grande stays healthy, he’ll upgrade an inconsistent lineup. Among right-handed MLB hitters that have at least 175 plate appearances this season, Herrera ranks among the top nine in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, wRC+ and wOBA.
In addition, Herrera has a .419 average with runners in scoring position, and has crushed lefty pitchers for a .733 slugging percentage and 1.189 OPS.
Lots of numbers here (sorry) but since the start of last season, among MLB hitters that have at least 50 plate appearances in high-leverage pressure situations, Herrera ranks among the top five in average, OBP, SLG and OPS.
As we can see, Herrera’s bat can strengthen multiple lineup weaknesses: on-base percentage, slugging, performance vs. left-handed pitchers, run-producing success in pressure situations and fewer games of being held to two or fewer runs.
Fact: the Cardinals have averaged 5.04 runs per game this season when Herrera is in the starting lineup. And they’ve averaged 4.2 runs when he’s not in the starting lineup. Ivan Herrera is the most important hitter on this team. But, I also anticipate improved offense from Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Willson Contreras – plus Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar if they’re healthy.
2. We know what the Cardinals are capable of. After going 10-15 in their first 25 games, the Cardinals responded with a 41-31 record since April 25. Their .569 winning percentage over that time is No. 5 in the National League and better than that of NL postseason contenders Mets, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks and Reds. And the Cardinals have just one fewer win than the Dodgers since April 25. More to the point, we’ve repeatedly seen this hard-headed rebound from bad stretches of baseball.
3. When the Cardinals are on their game, they can beat any foe. They have series wins against the Phillies (2), Mets, Dodgers, Brewers and Astros. We’ve seen what this team is capable of doing when playing well. The key is being more consistent. Sure, the Cardinals have lost series to good teams – but that’s normal over 162 games. The Cards are inconsistent and have had some bad stretches. But the exact same thing can be said about other NL wild-card contenders including the Padres, Giants, Mets, Reds and Diamondbacks. Since St. Louis began to turn its season around on April 25, the Cards are 13-16 against the Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Tigers, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Cubs. It’s a respectable record; those teams all rank among the top eight in MLB for best winning percentage.
4. Cardinal starting pitchers will likely catch a break in batted-ball luck. In their first 56 games the Redbirds were 32-24 and their starting pitchers had a 3.69 ERA that ranked 5th in the NL. The rotation benefited from fortunate batted-ball luck, with opponents batting .280 on balls in play. But over their last 56 games the Cards starters have a horrible starting-pitching ERA (5.27) that was formed, in part, by a .303 batting average against them on balls in play. This group doesn’t strike out many hitters, so the luck factor is significant. So for the Cardinals, the hope is for a normalized batting average in balls in play.
In a separate and related note, the Cardinals have upgraded their bullpen depth through the emergence of Riley O’Brien, Matt Svanson, Gordon Graceffo and Andre Granillo.
And if starter Matthew Liberatore can freshen up and pitch with more authority, the top of the rotation will offer more resistance. The key is having Sonny Gray, Liberatore and Andre Pallante pitch well enough to compensate for the back end of the rotation. I think that’s possible, simply because the Cardinals fit that description earlier in the season.
5. A more reasonable schedule should help the Cardinals. Because of rainy weather, this team had to play six doubleheaders during their first 75 games of the season. This made it more difficult for manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake to set up their rotation and bullpen plans in a way that could keep pitchers fresh. The Redbirds had a schedule that was the most difficult in the majors because of how the doubleheaders piled up. There will be a more normal flow to the schedule over the remaining 65 games.
Five Reasons Why The Cardinals Won’t Make The Playoffs
1. Recent trends are ominous. Since May 30 the Cardinals are 19-22 and rank 11th among the 15 NL teams with a .463 winning percentage. There’s been a drop in quality in virtually every area of the team.
2. Can’t pitch well? Can’t win. Since June 1, the Cardinals rank 27th in the majors with an overall 4.67 team ERA. That’s just part of it. Since the end of May the STL starting-pitching ERA (5.40) is the worst in the majors. They’ve gotten a quality start in only 28 percent of their outings over that time. That’s awful.
3. Herrera’s return is a plus, but STL’s outfield group is a liability on offense. That’s another reason to turn Herrera into a left fielder by no later than the start of the 2026 regular season.
It’s absolutely pathetic. Cardinal outfielders collectively are 25th in the majors in batting average (.231), 25th in OPS (.571) and 27th in slugging percentage (.360.)
Do you think that’s bad? Well, how about this? When facing left-handed pitchers this season St. Louis outfielders collectively have batted an MLB-worst .185, and rank last in slugging percentage (.258) and OPS (.518).
The most startling number of all: per wRC+, Redbird outfielders have performed 50 percent below league average offensively against lefty pitchers. That’s so weak, so sad.
Which raises a question: why would the Cardinals want to continue with this same set of outfielders in 2026? Note to Chaim Bloom: please save the Cardinals.
4. The Cardinals have other disadvantages. Before the All-Star break, the Cards suffered the least amount of injury damage than any team in the majors. That’s based on the WAR value of players that were on the IL. Can that possibly continue? I don’t think so.
5. The Cardinals aren’t set up as well as other NL playoff contenders. That’s because of several factors including their payroll size (19th) and limitations, positional logjams, and a hesitant and indecisive front office. In the quest to win by adding talent at the trade deadline, the Cardinals won’t be nearly as aggressive as teams such as the Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Padres, Giants and perhaps the Diamondbacks and Brewers.
Heck, if the situation deteriorates, before the deadline, I don’t even trust the Cardinals trade assets such as pitchers Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz and Phil Maton to add young talent to buttress the future. Mozeliak can’t be counted on to make an easy and obvious move: promote Michael McGreevy to the STL rotation.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM) and he is a regular guest on the “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Bernie does a weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch on the Cardinals.