Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (32-25) at Texas Rangers (28-30)
Time: 3:05pm CT Saturday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Sonny Gray (5-1, 4.06 ERA) vs Patrick Corbin (3-3, 3.75 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cardinals -142, Rangers +120
Total: 8.5 (over -115, under -105)
Cards Look For Big Bounceback
The St. Louis Cardinals look to wipe last night’s game from their memory when they go up against the Texas Rangers this afternoon in the second of a three-game set.
The Redbirds got hammered last night 11-1 in a rare awful performance. It marked just the third time in the last 24 games that the Cards have lost by more than one run.
Sonny Saturday In Texas
The Cardinals should feel confident today behind Sonny Gray, as they are 9-2 this season when their veteran right-hander toes the slab. Gray has put together a quality start in six of his last eight outings.
However, Gray has appeared only three times on the road this season, and he has a 6.75 ERA in those starts. That comes after a 2024 season where he also struggled away from home with a 5.20 ERA.
Comeback For Corbin
It has been a resurgent season for today’s Rangers starter Patrick Corbin. After being a key figure in the Washington Nationals’ 2019 World Series win, Corbin was one of the worst starters in MLB from 2020 to 2024 with a 5.62 ERA across 137 starts.
But in his first year with Texas, the veteran southpaw has compiled a 3.75 ERA and has allowed 3 runs or less in all nine of his starts. Corbin has particularly enjoyed pitching at home at Globe Life Field where he has a 2.91 ERA this season.
My Pick
I don’t have a strong feeling on the side or total today, so I’m going to turn to the player prop market and fade the struggling Willson Contreras.
I love Contreras, and I’m invested in his season-long prop of over 19.5 home runs. So maybe my fading of him today will get him going, but it has been a struggle of late.
Contreras is 5 for his last 38 (.131 average) with no extra base hits. He is also just 3 for 15 lifetime against Corbin with 5 strikeouts, and all of those hits were singles.
My bet for today is for Contreras to have under 1.5 total bases. It’s juiced pretty high at -140, which is an implied probability of 58.3% for the bet to cash. But I still think that provides an edge.
Contreras has gone under 1.5 total bases in 9 straight games and in 11 of his last 12. And if you made this bet in every game Contreras has started this season, your record would be 34-18 (65.3% hit rate).
Pick: Willson Contreras under 1.5 total bases at -140 on DraftKings (would not bet odds higher than that)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer