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The MLB trade deadline is still two months away.
There are 100s of games to be played, pitching rotations to be shuffled, lineups to be restructured, playoff dreams of multiple fan bases to be dashed, boosted, then dashed again. And of course, for an untold number of teams in the league’s mushy middle, there remains an important question to be answered: Are we buyers or sellers?
When Major League Baseball expanded its postseason format in 2022 – boosting the playoff field to 12 teams, six from each league – it also extended the window during which fringe contenders could realistically dream of playing in October. Which means an increase in the number of teams uncertain about its approach, often until the final days before the deadline, which this season is July 31.
The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in that area of uncertainty.
Cardinals Should Not Transition Now From 'Transition Year' Approach
In what had been labeled a “transition year” for the franchise, a chance to see what many of the team’s younger players can do if given the opportunity, St. Louis has exceeded all expectations. At 32-24 overall, 3.0 games behind the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central, the Cardinals are well within reach of the divisional title, and they currently sit in the third and final wild card spot, a game in front of San Francisco, with several other teams nipping at the Giants’ heels.
A lot can and will happen by the time the season reaches the All-Star break, after which most trades tend to happen. As St. Louis fans found out during the Cardinals’ recent nine-game winning streak, a single stretch of positive results can change the season outlook in a hurry. Likewise, a team can go into a tailspin and find itself on the outside looking in just as quickly.
But the Cardinals should not base their deadline decision on what happens between now and late July. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak made that decision long before the regular season ever began, as he looked ahead to his final year in the position and spoke about prioritizing the Cardinals’ future over their present.
“The one thing I’ve learned in this game is you got to adapt and adjust, or ultimately go away,” he said in an October 2024 interview with Martin Kilcoyne of Fox2.
However, adapting and adjusting on the fly can be dangerous. Few things are more damaging to the long-term health of a franchise than an indecisive, wishy-washy front office that reverses course at a moment’s notice.
The 2025 season was never about just the 2025 season, and while making the playoffs was certainly a goal, it wasn’t the goal. So the Cardinals should stay the course, which means making the tough decision to trade valuable assets.
Rolling the Dice on 2025 Playoffs Could Set Franchise Back
Sure, postseason play would be great, but at what cost?
What would the Cardinals need to add in order to matchup in a playoff series against the Phillies? Or the Mets? Or the Dodgers? Does it make sense to trade away the talent it would take to make that even remotely possible?
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a few enticing trade chips that could bring in a pretty nice haul from contending teams looking for that final piece.
Ryan Helsley, of course, is at the top of that list, and he would likely be at the top of the list for several playoff-bound teams looking to solidify their bullpen. A pair of deadline deals from last season serve as potential comps to determine what a trade for Helsley could potentially send back to the Cardinals.
On July 27, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired then-31-year-old closer Carlos Estévez from the Los Angeles Angels for pitching prospects George Klassen (who would have been the No. 7 prospect in the Phillies’ system at MLB Pipeline’s midseason re-rank) and Samuel Aldegheri (who would have been No. 12).
A few days later, the San Diego Padres got closer Tanner Scott and middle reliever Bryan Hoeing from the Miami Marlins for left-handed pitcher Robby Snelling (Padres No. 2 prospect), right-handed pitcher Adam Mazur (No. 4), infielder/outfielder Graham Pauley (No. 5) and infielder Jay Beshears (No. 24).
It’s certainly worth considering, but don’t wait too long.
After all, the trade deadline is just two months away.