My theme for the day: are the St. Louis Cardinals for real? Or are we seeing a shiny and wavy mirage?
There are two answers to this question, and both are absolutely correct:
1. The Cardinals have the best record in the majors (15-3) since April 30. They have the top winning percentage (.737) in the National League since April 25. Over the last 20 days, just about every important area of this team has performed with distinction. There have been some bad games, yes … and some clunky baserunning. But no real weaknesses. Nothing that you can point to and say something like, “that weakness will kill them.”
2. OK but as they say at the horse-race track, when the result isn’t clear: “please hold all tickets.” This applies to the Cardinals because they have 118 games remaining on the regular-season schedule. They must validate and substantiate their winning ways. It’s not even summer.
And this is also true:
For the love of Victor Scott II … if you’re not enjoying this team and smiling at every part of the Cardinals Experience over the last three weeks … Well, I must question your authenticity as a Cardinals fan.
(By the way: it’s OK to acknowledge that you may have underestimated the 2025 Cardinals. No one will make fun of you. Your ego shall remain vibrant and intact. Most predictions turn out wrong. Some go terribly wrong. It’s fine. Your family won’t disown you. You won’t be disinvited to the neighbor’s Memorial Day barbeque.)
C’mon now. What’s not to like about the Cardinals these days? They just clinched the season series against Philadelphia (4-2) by winning the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader by a touchdown, 14-7.
It was the perfect response to a tough 2-1 loss in the first game. It was an incredible response to the Phillies coming out in the second game and walloping the Cardinals for a 5-1 lead after one inning. It sure seemed like the Cardinals were on the way to get swept in the doubleheader.
Naw. Didn’t happen. The fellers picked up their bats, and launched a vicious assault on Phillies starter Aaron Nola, and outscored the home team 13-2 over the final eight innings. I don’t know if the Cardinals made a “statement” there. But they proved a point: it is best to take them seriously – at least until there are legitimate reasons to stop taking them seriously.
The Cardinals record on the season (24-20) doesn’t qualify for “great team” status. But that isn’t the point. No one – absolutely no one – is labeling the 2025 Cardinals as a great team. But they were a bad or mediocre team that shook off a poor start, dug in, and propelled themselves forward.
They couldn’t win one-run games. Remember their 0-5 record in one-run decisions? Well, they reversed that by going 6-1 in their last seven one-run thrillers.
Couldn’t win on the road. Remember that? It was true. The Cards won only two of their first 14 road games of the season. But they’ve turned themselves into roadrunners, winning seven of their last nine games away from Busch Stadium – and blasting opponents by a combined 52-13 score in the seven victories.
This is a team that can win any style of game. During their 14-5 run since April 25th – no NL team has been better than that since that date – the Redbirds won six games by a margin of one run … and they also won six games by routing opponents by a margin of five runs or more.
Back to the question: are the Cardinals for real? Well, their 12-3 record (.800) since April 30 is the best in the bigs. The Cards are 10-1 in their last 11 games. They have the NL’s best record (10-3) in May. So we can agree on this much: they’re a hot team. And a confident group.
And they appear to be a tough-minded team. In this 14-5 stretch, they navigated their way through three doubleheaders and won five of the six games. The Cardinals trailed at some point in four of their 14 wins during this heat-up time.
This is a team that now has an 11-8 record in games against opponents that currently have a winning record. And in the majors only one team, the Mets, has a better winning percentage against successful opponents.
The Redbirds have lost only two of their last 10 series – winning seven, losing two, and splitting one.
The Cardinals haven’t lost a series since losing two of three at Atlanta from April 21-23. From that point St. Louis has series wins against the Brewers, Mets, Pirates, Nationals and Phillies plus a split in their four-game set against the Reds in late April. That’s a 5-0-1 record in their last six series. Oh, and along the way manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake did a rapid retooling of a gasping, ghastly bullpen. And their season suddenly had a different look, a different shape.
Are the Cardinals for real? Well, here’s the report through their first 44 games:
The St. Louis offense ranks sixth in the majors with an average of 4.82 runs per game. The Cardinals are 4th in MLB in batting average, 3rd in onbase percentage, 9th in slugging, and 9th in OPS. I’m not cherry-picking here; those impressive rankings were formed in all 44 games.
The St. Louis run prevention is 11th-best in the majors. The team ERA is 12th. (And is fourth, at 3.25, in May.) There’s nothing wrong with ranking 12th in ERA for the season. But the pitching – especially the bullpen – in tending very well.
The St. Louis defense leads the majors in Fielding Run Value, range rating, outs above average and is fourth in defensive runs saved.
The baserunning: disappointing. Hopefully this will improve. Among other flaws, only three teams have been thrown out at the plate more times (7) than St. Louis.
May I quote myself?
Thank you. It will save me some time.
I said this in my Thursday “Bernie Show” video:
“I don’t know about you, but I truly enjoy watching these Cardinals play ball. Their energy level is high. Their competitive intensity is strong. Their resilience is admirable. These guys play hard. They have a lot of fun. They can beat you with different styles, and different ways. They play fundamentally sound baseball. They play with flair. That flair flows from their confidence, and there’s no quit in these Cardinals.”
Here’s another reason why I think the Cardinals are for real: they currently have a plus 31 run differential which ranks eighth-best in the majors. Last season the Cards had a minus 47 run differential and still hustled to a winning (83-79) season.
There are some underlying metrics that tell us the Cardinals actually deserve to have a better record than they do right now. The legendary baseball analyst Clay Davenport’s data – based on run differential, strength of schedule and other indicators – tell us the Cardinals deserve to be about 27-17 at this point – the same as the first-place Cubs in the NL Central.
I think the Cardinals are busy establishing themselves as a good team. And I can’t wait to see what direction they’ll take in the weeks ahead.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: The Cardinals bottomed out at 10-15 on April 23, and their .400 winning percentage at that time was tied with the Pirates among NL teams and only the Rockies had a more awful record at that time. That .400 winning percentage was tied for 25th among the 30 NL teams.
After losing to Atlanta on April 23, the Cardinals had a 7 percent chance of winning the NL Central and a 10.6% probability of making the playoffs. (That’s according to FanGraphs.)
Well, their 14-5 record since then has changed the outlook. As of Thursday morning the Cardinals had a 24.4% shot of winning the division and a postseason probability of 32.6%. That’s great progress since St. Louis went 1-6 in a horrific road trip to New York (Mets) and Atlanta.
That’s all you can ask – for a slow-starting team to make up as much ground as they can – and do it as quickly as possible.
The Cardinals, who trail the first-place Cubs by only one game in the NL Central, were six games behind the Cubs after losing to the Mets on May 2. Forward progress.
HONOR ROLL
The Cardinals Bullpen: Since the season turning point began on April 25, the St. Louis bullpen has a 2.25 ERA that ranks first in the majors. During that time the relievers also lead MLB with 18 holds, and have converted six of seven save opportunities for a rate of 85.7%. And in their 5-1 excursion to Washington and Philadelphia, the Redbird relievers had a 1.08 ERA in 16 and ⅔ innings. Their stingy ERA was supported by a 26.2 percent strikeout rate, and an 88 percent stranded-runner rate.
The St. Louis bullpen faced 65 Washington or Philly batters without yielding a home run. And the relief crew had Sonny Gray’s back after a poor start in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader. John King, Chris Roycroft, JoJo Romero, Phil Maton and Matt Svanson combined for 5 and ⅓ scoreless innings and allowed only five of 20 Phillie hitters to reach base on two singles and three walks.
Oli Marmoil + Masyn Winn: The young shortstop has been one of the NL’s best hitters since the astute manager moved him to the No. 2 lineup spot on April 30. In 72 plate appearances Marmol has hit .347 with a .448 onbase rate and .673 slugging percentage and 1.122 OPS. And Winn has done lots of damage, smacking four home runs, four doubles, driving home 10 runs, and scoring 12 times.
Alec Burleson: The big man had himself a bull-rush kind of game in the 14-7 win over the Phils in Wednesday’s night game. Burleson had four two-out RBIs in this one, ripping a two-run homer and two-run single.
Burly’s two-run homer lifted the Cardinals to a 6-5 lead, and his two-run single put the Cards ahead 9-6. That single was Burleson’s first against a lefthander this season after an 0 for 10 start against them.
Burleson struggled to get on track this season, but he’s recharged his offense over his last 16 games. In 52 plate appearances since April 22, Burleson is batting .320 with a .520 slug, and he’s powered up for three home runs and nine RBIs.
Willson Contreras: What a player. What a dude. In his last 23 games, going back to April 20, the Cards first baseman has carried a cruel bat – cudgeling pitchers for a .358 average, .459 onbase percentage, .580 slug and a 1.039 OPS.
The hitting spree includes five homers and 18 RBIs. Over this torrid stretch Contreras ranks 1st among NL hitters in OBP, 4th in RBIs, 5th in batting average and is tied for 9th in homers.
We don’t talk enough about Contreras’ plate discipline. Since April 20 he has a fantastic 12.2 percent walk rate but has struck out only 18 percent of the time.
Contreras continues to impress with his nimble defense. He’s currently tied for 2nd among major-league first basemen in Fielding Run Value and outs above average and is 6th in defensive runs saved.
Ivan Herrera: Goodness. Is this man a hitter, or what? In his five games played since returning from the IL, Herrera is 7 for 18 (.389) with a .667 slug and 1.121 OPS. Add in two doubles, a homer, three RBIs, a couple of walks and four runs scored – and what the Cardinals have is a star in the making.
Since the start of the 2024 season, Herrera has put up a .313 average, .385 OBP, .493 slug and .877 OPS. Among MLB hitters with at least 300 plate appearances over that time, Herrera ranks second on a list of 90 big-league hitters with a wRC+ that makes him 47 percent above the league average offensively. (wRC+ is adjusted runs created, tweaked for ballpark and league effects. It’s a better version of OPS or OPS+.)
Lars Nootbaar: He’s stirring after a quiet period (aka slump) to generate a .367 average and 1.045 OPS in his last seven games. And the STL leadoff man threaded two doubles, two homers six RBIs and five runs into his artful hitting during this stretch.
Nootbaar is one of the best leadoff men in the majors this season, performing 30 percent above league average offensively in the top spot. Last season the Cardinals’ performance at leadoff was 10 percent below league average offensively … so, yeah, Nootbaar has increased the offense at the team’s No. 1 lineup spot by 40 percent from where it was in 2024. Is that good?
Erick Fedde: He has a 1.37 ERA in his last three starts. And on the I-95 section of the road trip, Fedde pitched 14 and ⅔ innings (combined) against the Nationals and Phillies without allowing a run.
I’m out of gas. Tough day, painful day, at the dentist this morning.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.