While the St. Louis Cardinals currently have a closer who a lot of teams may want before this year’s trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs have one who might not be holding that position for much longer.
At least, that is the sentiment expressed by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, who highlights a statistic Ryan Pressly has produced “that could be cause for alarm.” In an article on Tuesday examining numbers from the first month-plus of the season that “are already telling us that something is wrong,” Sarris warns of Pressly posting a Stuff+ rate that should be of great concern to the Cubs.
Stuff+ is a stat that measures the raw nastiness of a pitch based purely on its physical traits — things like release point, velocity, spin rate, and movement. It compares a pitcher’s secondary pitches to their primary fastball and even factors in things like seam-shifted wake and deception from unique release points. Trained on run values, the model hints that pitchers might have some control over weak contact, even if the jury is still out.
Stuff+ tends to matter more for relievers than starters because relievers lean heavily on raw stuff — especially velocity — to get outs in short bursts. Since they don’t have to pace themselves for multiple innings, they can max out their fastballs, and Stuff+ captures that edge better than most metrics. For pitchers coming out of the bullpen, nasty usually plays, and Stuff+ is built to spot exactly that.
And so it is that Sarris stresses the need for Chicago to be concerned over Pressly’s Stuff+ rate of 93, which is tied with Tommy Kahnle of the Detroit Tigers for second-to-last in MLB among relievers who have at least three saves this season, ahead of only Texas Rangers closer Luke Jackson.
“Team-wise, the Cubs might be okay. Porter Hodge looks the part of a high-stuff, high-leverage reliever, and improving the pen is something that is exceedingly possible in-season. There are always relievers available,” Sarris wrote. “For the player, though, this isn’t necessarily a list you want to be on. Pressly’s declining stuff — he’s lost velocity and ride on the four-seam, which has become more cutter-like, and his curve is his only remaining above-average pitch — will probably cost him the closer’s role sooner rather than later.”
As if the underlying metrics aren’t enough cause for concern, the eye test from Pressly’s most recent outing on Tuesday certainly made Cubs fans nervous.
Entering a tied game against San Francisco in the top of the 11th inning, Pressly allowed nine runs to score, eight of them earned, without recording a single out, as the Giants ran away with a 14-5 win. The 36-year-old right-hander gave up five hits with a walk and a hit batter, and his ERA ballooned to 7.62.
“It’s all on me tonight,” Pressly said. “I didn’t do my job.”
The outburst broke the franchise record for runs allowed in an extra-inning frame, and it also represented the largest extra-inning loss in Cubs history.
“He couldn’t finish hitters, essentially. That was it,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “And it snowballed a little bit.”
Offensive Exploits Overshadow PCA's Strong Defense for Cubs
The Cubs would lose 3-1 to San Francisco on Wednesday, dropping to 22-16 overall, three games in front for first place in the NL Central heading into a weekend road series against the Mets.
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to get heads shaking around MLB in his second full season, and his power numbers in particular have impressed of late. During a 10-game stretch from April 22 to May 3, Crow-Armstrong hit six home runs and drove in 16, and for the season, he has posted a slash line of .265/.303/.537 with nine home runs, 27 RBIs, 29 runs and 12 stolen bases. He is tied for the team lead in homers with Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki.
With the flashy offensive numbers, it’s been easy to overlook Crow-Armstrong's strong defense. According to a recent graph from baseball stats analyst Thomas Nestico, he is tied for the fourth-most defensive runs saved in the league. Even more impressive, Baseball Savant ranks him No. 1 in outs above average (eight), while placing him in the 89th percentile in arm value, 95th in arm strength, and 96th in sprint speed.
Streaky Brewers Could be Sellers at Trade Deadline
The Milwaukee Brewers continue riding a streaky wave of baseball. Beginning on April 23, the Brewers lost four games in a row, followed by a three-game winning streak, then a three-game losing streak, then another three-game winning streak.
Milwaukee lost 9-1 at home to the Astros on Wednesday, dropping the team to 19-19 overall, tied with the Cardinals for second place in the division. The Brewers travel to Tampa for a three-game weekend set against the Rays.
On a Brewers team batting just .237 overall, second baseman Brice Turang continues to be a bright spot. Milwaukee’s first-round pick (21st overall) in 2018, Turang, who batted .218 and .254 in his first two seasons, entered the weekend with a slash line of .318/.383/.409.
During a recent episode of ESPN's "Baseball Tonight" podcast, Buster Olney shared that a rival evaluator believes the Brewers might look to capitalize on the current seller's market by moving some of their assets. Freddy Peralta will command the most attention among potential trade partners, and in his latest start May 4 against the Cubs, Peralta pitched six scoreless innings, allowing just four hits and one walk, while striking out seven. Peralta improved to 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA, striking out 48 in 45.1 innings.
Cincinnati's Top Performers Sidelined by Injuries
The Cincinnati Reds have hit a rough stretch, losing five of their last six games, including a 5-4 loss to Atlanta on Thursday that dropped them to 19-20, a half-game behind St. Louis and Milwaukee for fourth place in the division.
Third baseman Noelvi Marte, a bit of an offensive revelation for the Reds since getting called up from Triple-A on April 17, was put on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a grade two left oblique strain. Marte said he felt something while making a throw in the game on Sunday, and Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters that Marte will likely be out for “a little while.” Marte was slashing .294/.342/.515 at the time of the injury.
“It’s difficult. Nothing you can do now," Marte said via an interpreter. "Now, you have to work hard to get back on the field as quick as possible. I believe in God that he will give me the strength to get back and be ready.”
Reds right-hander Hunter Greene was placed on the 15-day IL today with a strained groin, although the Reds are more optimistic about his situation. After pitching three scoreless innings in Wednesday's 4-3 win over the Braves, Greene signaled to the dugout while warming up for the bottom of the fourth inning that he felt something wrong and was removed from the game. An MRI on Thursday indicated a Grade 1 strain, but team officials don’t expect Peralta to miss many starts.
“You don’t want to miss him for even a day but all things considered, he’s going to be OK. We’ve got to take care of him," Francona said.
Pirates Fire Derek Shelton Following 7-Game Losing Streak
The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost seven consecutive games and 10 of their last 11, and on Thursday, they announced that Derek Shelton had been relieved of his duties as Pirates manager. Over his five-plus seasons at the helm, Pittsburgh went 306-440, placing last in the NL Central in three of those seasons and second-to-last in the other two.
“Derek is a good man who did a lot for the Pirates and Pittsburgh, but it was time for a change,” said Pirates Chairman Bob Nutting. “The first quarter of the season has been frustrating and painful for all of us. We have to do better.”
Pirates bench coach Don Kelly was named as Shelton’s replacement.
“I believe strongly Donnie is the right person to manage the team right now,” said Pirates general manager Ben Cherington. “He has the skills and experience needed to do this job really well and deeply cares about the Pirates and Pittsburgh. I look forward to working with him even more closely.”
A 5-0 loss at St. Louis on Wednesday dropped Pittsburgh to 12-26 overall, 10 games behind Chicago.